EPAC: AMANDA - Remnants

[TheProfessor]

I don't see a models thread for 91E so I'll post the 0z intensity forecast here. Interestingly enough RI25 and RI30 decided to show up. SHIPS seems to be pretty aggressive with strengthening to a tropical storm as well so this could definitely be something to watch.

[Cpv17]

00z Euro comes in with less ridging. Looks like it has a successful crossover and eventually sends a weak TS or even a TD into Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/UayrEUr.gif

00z EPS run has some strong members:
https://i.imgur.com/cUHRSOm.png
PC - Weathermodels.com

Thanks for posting. I live in southeast Texas and don’t have access to the paid stuff so thanks to all of y’all that share content on here. Looks like my area needs to keep an eye on it.

[Kingarabian]

I don't see a models thread for 91E so I'll post the 0z intensity forecast here. Interestingly enough RI25 and RI30 decided to show up. SHIPS seems to be pretty aggressive with strengthening to a tropical storm as well so this could definitely be something to watch.

https://i.imgur.com/IOceXkx.png

I went ahead and made one but we usually don't for EPAC systems due to the lesser attention.

[GCANE]

IMHO GFS is not initializing the LL vorts well.
CIMSS showing a well developed one over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
Posted

[GCANE]

Appears a mid-level warm core has developed.

[GCANE]

Latest ASCAT

[GCANE]

Multi-Satellite LL Wind Analysis

[NDG]

[SoupBone]

Probably the first time I've posted in an EPAC thread. What's our timeline for this system impacting the Gulf Coast, if it all?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1266733554307723264

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like what ultimately pulls this NORTH with the last couple Euro runs is some slight lowering of pressure in the BOC.
probably due to the persistent convection and broad vorticity that has been there.

latest visible show some weak 850mb broad turning with the convection in the BOC. that would leave more of a weakness for this to travel a long.

and actually the 6z euro barely develops the east pac circ it brings it inland at the same time a circ develops in the BOC in 48 to 72 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Being that the center appears to be consolidating pretty quickly close to the coast I am leaning to towards the Euro/UKMET/ICON solutions.
if the convection in the BOC persists today the likelihood of pressures lowering increases and forcing the east pac circ to lift inland sooner which could lead to a redevelopment in the BOC

[kevin]

Being that the center appears to be consolidating pretty quickly close to the coast I am leaning to towards the Euro/UKMET/ICON solutions.
if the convection in the BOC persists today the likelihood of pressures lowering increases and forcing the east pac circ to lift inland sooner which could lead to a redevelopment in the BOC

https://i.ibb.co/8N4Pc9t/Capture.png

Agreed. I didn't follow it that closely the last 24 hours and now that I look at it it seems to be forming faster than I expected.

[Aric Dunn]

unfortunately The Guatemalan radar is down.. unless someone can find a working site somewhere?

[Aric Dunn]

New ASCAT pass pretty much confirming the obvious. This is likely a TD at the moment.

would expect chances to go up to 90 percent with a possible upgrade later today or by morning for sure.

[StruThiO]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 30 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low pressure system located just off the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador continue to become better organized. If
the current trend continues, advisories could be initiated on this
system later today or tonight. Interests in El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this
system as it is expected to move across those locations tonight and
Sunday.

Regardless of development, this slow moving disturbance is expected
to produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the next few days. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain. See products from your local national
meteorological service for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[mrbagyo]

Nicaragua Radar

[Aric Dunn]

Nicaragua Radar

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/20200531_014218.gif

So close.. just out of range

[NDG]

Too bad it only caught the SE half of the circulation. It getting together quick.