ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Steve]

And not long after I post that, the EC looks a tad west of the consensus. It looks like it takes the west cut just before landfall. Could the euro sometimes referred to as the king be an outlier or a leader?

[stormlover2013]

High pressure looks stronger

[Steve]

High pressure looks stronger

Agreed. What’s a trip is the handoff from the ridging to the NW to the one in the SE as that smaller ridge follows the trough that will go off the east coast tomorrow. Weirder is that it gets picked up by a northern trough around Iowa and looks to potentially be a notable weather event for IA, WI and MI.

Also notable is the heat ridge of death making an appearance in Texas in the wake of Cristobal.

[Dean4Storms]

Has anyone seen the 06z ECM run to see if it continues with the further west than consensus?

[Steve]

Has anyone seen the 06z ECM run to see if it continues with the further west than consensus?

Sorry Dean, I haven’t.

[Pearl River]

Looks like 06z ECM brings in between Caillou Bay and Lake Pelto

[Steve]

Looks like 06z ECM brings in between Caillou Bay and Lake Pelto

So over by Cocodrie. There's some marsh down there, but it's generally open water these days. Still, yikes. I wanted a little less distance from the center re flooding.

[Steve]

Models more or less agree within 50-70 miles of landfall. So we know it will hit in SELA or possibly as far west as Terrebonne Parish in SCLA. For the 12z's, I figured it would be worth posting rainfall outlooks to have that for posterity. All links are through 72 hours.

CMC far and away remains the wettest model out of it, GFS, NAM and ICON. It inundates the panhandle with 3 banding areas around 10" or so. A secondary heavy rain threat is at the MS/AL border. It should be noted that the CMC lanfalls on th eastern side of the model guidance. So if it has the best handle on the rainfall rates, adjust accordingly.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

GFS has much less rain than the CMC and focuses it around Hancock and Harrison Counties, Mississippi. The panhandle over through Jacksonville is the secondary area of heaviest rain as well as up through SW MS, SE & NE LA and up through Central Arkansas.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

ICON also has much less rain than the Canadian. It focuses the heaviest rains at Mobile Bay and up through SWMS, Arkansas and Missouri. Secondary area of heaviest rain is angled NNE through Apalachee Bay just east of Tallahassee.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

NAM12km - This is the second wettest model which is a big change from when it had it landfalling SWLA a couple days ago. NAM likes Hancock County, St. Tammany and Washington Parishes and then through Mississippi and NE Arkansas. It also has a secondary area around Valdosta, GA and most of the Florida Panhandle. Just for the record, it appears to be underdoing rainfall across the entire state of Alabama except the immediate coast. I don't even think the NAM's solution for Alabama rainfall rates is possible. OTOH, it may get more rain later as Cristobal moves farther north.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

NAM3km - As noted above, NAM is the second wettest. In the 3km resolution run, all of SELA gets between 1-2 feet of rain. From there, it goes up through SWMS and into SE Arkansas. Additionally, NAM3km resolution focuses lots of rain on the Panhandle up toward Valdosta, Big Bend over through Jacksonville and then another blast from around Lake City up to the coast near Brunswick, GA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

[TheProfessor]

Models more or less agree within 50-70 miles of landfall. So we know it will hit in SELA or possibly as far west as Terrebonne Parish in SCLA. For the 12z's, I figured it would be worth posting rainfall outlooks to have that for posterity. All links are through 72 hours.

CMC far and away remains the wettest model out of it, GFS, NAM and ICON. It inundates the panhandle with 3 banding areas around 10" or so. A secondary heavy rain threat is at the MS/AL border. It should be noted that the CMC lanfalls on th eastern side of the model guidance. So if it has the best handle on the rainfall rates, adjust accordingly.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

GFS has much less rain than the CMC and focuses it around Hancock and Harrison Counties, Mississippi. The panhandle over through Jacksonville is the secondary area of heaviest rain as well as up through SW MS, SE & NE LA and up through Central Arkansas.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

ICON also has much less rain than the Canadian. It focuses the heaviest rains at Mobile Bay and up through SWMS, Arkansas and Missouri. Secondary area of heaviest rain is angled NNE through Apalachee Bay just east of Tallahassee.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

NAM12km - This is the second wettest model which is a big change from when it had it landfalling SWLA a couple days ago. NAM likes Hancock County, St. Tammany and Washington Parishes and then through Mississippi and NE Arkansas. It also has a secondary area around Valdosta, GA and most of the Florida Panhandle. Just for the record, it appears to be underdoing rainfall across the entire state of Alabama except the immediate coast. I don't even think the NAM's solution for Alabama rainfall rates is possible. OTOH, it may get more rain later as Cristobal moves farther north.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

NAM3km - As noted above, NAM is the second wettest. In the 3km resolution run, all of SELA gets between 1-2 feet of rain. From there, it goes up through SWMS and into SE Arkansas. Additionally, NAM3km resolution focuses lots of rain on the Panhandle up toward Valdosta, Big Bend over through Jacksonville and then another blast from around Lake City up to the coast near Brunswick, GA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=72

The CAM models aren't typically used for tropical systems, but they're all in pretty good agreement that in the next 12-18 hours the core is able to successfully detach itself from the feeder band and the core is able to tighten up and strengthen. I guess we'll see just how bad they are with tropical systems shortly.

[Pearl River]

It looks like the 12z Euro still takes it in around Cocodrie.

[bella_may]

Decent east shift on the euro