ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1267084924840001538

[aspen]

Only model runs.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1267084924840001538

Quite a lot of ensemble members showing a strong TS or a minimal hurricane in the Gulf. Based on currently expected conditions, how likely is this? Gulf waters are warm enough but I think I recall that shear will be high.

[aspen]

HWRF develops Tropical Storm Cristobal in the BOC by Wednesday.

[PTrackerLA]

I know the ICON performed terribly last year with Dorian but the 12z ICON is rather alarming. Would fit in with some of the Euro ensembles

[aspen]

I know the ICON performed terribly last year with Dorian but the 12z ICON is rather alarming. Would fit in with some of the Euro ensembles

https://imgur.com/53lPgmp

The ICON was the only model insisting that Dorian would not make landfall in the DR or Puerto Rico. It was right, and its safe passage between some of the islands was what allowed it to eventually go berserk near the Bahamas. Since it did that well with Dorian’s earlier track and since this run is close to the Euro ensembles, I think it’s reliable enough to keep an eye on.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS out to 180 hrs. Stronger and more in line with other models now.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS landfall:

[Ivanhater]

If anything, this looks to bring much needed rain to the northern gulf coast

[SouthDadeFish]

I think focusing on any particular landfall location at this point in time is a futile endeavor. The long-term details of the storm are highly sensitive to which vorticity maximum becomes dominant over the next 2-3 days. Will TS Amanda remain the dominant vorticity maximum in the Gulf? The 12Z GFS suggests no. The 00Z EC suggests maybe. The 12Z GEM suggests yes. This has large implications on track, intensity, and most of all, timing.

I would imagine which vorticity max becomes dominant out of the gyre is highly sensitive to diabatic (convective) processes which are notoriously challenging to predict. Just keep this all in mind when you view model forecasts over the next 1-2 days. I imagine we will see lots of waffling.

[chaser1]

12z GFS out to 180 hrs. Stronger and more in line with other models now.

https://imgur.com/tQtjIlm

Definately more inline with ICON and CMC though perhaps still about 24 hours slower then those models. This GFS run certainly shows organization far sooner then the previous two GFS model runs. If the EURO today continues to come in line with the overall timing, then this looks to be a pretty reasonable outcome. I'll be curious to see if the EURO 12Z run show's a deeper and more organized system AND if it suggests any bit more of a track to the left as i'm assuming.

[Cpv17]

I think focusing on any particular landfall location at this point in time is a futile endeavor. The long-term details of the storm are highly sensitive to which vorticity maximum becomes dominant over the next 2-3 days. Will TS Amanda remain the dominant vorticity maximum in the Gulf? The 12Z GFS suggests no. The 00Z EC suggests maybe. The 12Z GEM suggests yes. This has large implications on track, intensity, and most of all, timing.

I would imagine which vorticity max becomes dominant out of the gyre is highly sensitive to diabatic (convective) processes which are notoriously challenging to predict. Just keep this all in mind when you view model forecasts over the next 1-2 days. I imagine we will see lots of waffling.

But the consensus in all models right now is the TX/LA border even though some of the models are developing different areas of low pressure in different areas.

[chaser1]

I think focusing on any particular landfall location at this point in time is a futile endeavor. The long-term details of the storm are highly sensitive to which vorticity maximum becomes dominant over the next 2-3 days. Will TS Amanda remain the dominant vorticity maximum in the Gulf? The 12Z GFS suggests no. The 00Z EC suggests maybe. The 12Z GEM suggests yes. This has large implications on track, intensity, and most of all, timing.

I would imagine which vorticity max becomes dominant out of the gyre is highly sensitive to diabatic (convective) processes which are notoriously challenging to predict. Just keep this all in mind when you view model forecasts over the next 1-2 days. I imagine we will see lots of waffling.

Great point & pretty much what I surmised in the Amanda thread (which is why I don't like having two distinct 93L & Amanda threads, where folks understandably are discussing the same thing in each)

[Aric Dunn]

12z UKMET is rather interesting..

[Ivanhater]

Some models are starting to show a new eastern low development or the boc low rotating east then heading north. Something to keep an eye on

[Nimbus]

Once the models have a better handle on Amanda they may shift left a little initially.
The shear forecast in the northern and central gulf appears to call for improving conditions for development.
Might even get a high pressure dome building from the outflow.

[Cpv17]

12z UKMET is rather interesting..

https://i.ibb.co/vqz871z/modgbr-20200531-1200-animation.gif

That looks NOLA bound.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah ukmet will start latching on in a day or so

[Ivanhater]

Cindy 2005 might be a good analog

[MississippiWx]

Very complex scenario here. Amanda could possibly survive well enough to redevelop in the BOC as the Euro/CMC/HWRF suggest. Even the GFS and Ukmet suggest this occurs. The difference is the way they move it back into Mexico. After this occurs, another lobe of energy (remnants?) rotate around the east side of the CAG and develops yet another storm off the Northern Yucatán.

Many different outcomes at play here, all feasible. Regardless, I’d say the chances of a tropical cyclone somewhere in the GOM are fairly high this upcoming week.

[wxman22]

I think focusing on any particular landfall location at this point in time is a futile endeavor. The long-term details of the storm are highly sensitive to which vorticity maximum becomes dominant over the next 2-3 days. Will TS Amanda remain the dominant vorticity maximum in the Gulf? The 12Z GFS suggests no. The 00Z EC suggests maybe. The 12Z GEM suggests yes. This has large implications on track, intensity, and most of all, timing.

I would imagine which vorticity max becomes dominant out of the gyre is highly sensitive to diabatic (convective) processes which are notoriously challenging to predict. Just keep this all in mind when you view model forecasts over the next 1-2 days. I imagine we will see lots of waffling.

But the consensus in all models right now is the TX/LA border even though some of the models are developing different areas of low pressure in different areas.

There really is no consensus yet, models and there ensembles show anything from the upper Texas coast to southeast Louisiana that's a pretty broad area . It will be a few more days before we have a true consensus as center relocation is likely at this point which will have large impacts on landfall location.