ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The record for earliest third named storm was set by Colin in 2016. This will likely be named within 24 hours, beating the record Colin set by 4 days or so.

[SFLcane]

THat was fast, forecast track & forecast discussion will be interesting.

Euro brings it onshore pretty quickly down there.

[psyclone]

WPC continues to jackpot the Florida Gulf coast with max QPF over the next week. Is this from this system, a second system or none of the above? It certainly doesn't seem congruent with current progs. That's hundreds of miles of coast with 5"+... and it's all from Mobile Bay eastward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591044186

[Kingarabian]

Can't wai to see how the NHC blends everything in.

[AutoPenalti]

WPC continues to jackpot the Florida Gulf coast with max QPF over the next week. Is this from this system, a second system or none of the above? It certainly doesn't seem congruent with current progs. That's hundreds of miles of coast with 5"+... and it's all from Mobile Bay eastward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591044186

That seems a little off unless it's forecast to be sheared.

[SoupBone]

WPC continues to jackpot the Florida Gulf coast with max QPF over the next week. Is this from this system, a second system or none of the above? It certainly doesn't seem congruent with current progs. That's hundreds of miles of coast with 5"+... and it's all from Mobile Bay eastward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591044186

This system could be lopsided with most of the rain displaced well to its east.

[Hammy]

THat was fast, forecast track & forecast discussion will be interesting.

Euro brings it onshore pretty quickly down there.

Still has about 60 hours and deepens fairly quickly on that same run.

[gfsperpendicular]

WPC continues to jackpot the Florida Gulf coast with max QPF over the next week. Is this from this system, a second system or none of the above? It certainly doesn't seem congruent with current progs. That's hundreds of miles of coast with 5"+... and it's all from Mobile Bay eastward.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591044186

This system could be lopsided with most of the rain displaced well to its east.

It feels like most June Gulf systems are (including Colin whose record is in trouble here haha)

[Kingarabian]

Yeah the gulf can do some wild things. Humberto 2007.

[Aric Dunn]

Also remember that the stronger/deeper this becomes the less likely the perturbations in the shrinking GYRE, will have enough momentum to tug this south back inland.

[plasticup]

Can't remember a time when I've seen the models more discordant on a well-established system. GFS makes nothing of it, ICON and CMC push a Cat 1-2 all the way across the gulf. Really curious what the NHC will make of it all.

[plasticup]

[SoupBone]

Also remember that the stronger/deeper this becomes the less likely the perturbations in the shrinking GYRE, will have enough momentum to tug this south back inland.

This would also "eliminate" the 2nd system that some models showed.

[Kingarabian]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics ... d_wind.png

This will put the entire gulf states on notice.

[NDG]

The NHC forecast track has is it staying offshore.

[SoupBone]

Wow, this is all so very clear now.

[Aric Dunn]

low level cloud lines really starting to speed up as this pulls away from the coast and all quads are friction free...

looks like we are about to have a big old convective burst shortly..

[Kingarabian]

I think if the NHC sticks with that track forecast, then they will have really bump the intensity. Majority of the solutions that take this north also have it as a respectable hurricane.

[drezee]

NASA Site of TD3

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... mframes=30

[SoupBone]

I think if the NHC sticks with that track forecast, then they will have really bump the intensity. Majority of the solutions that take this north also have it as a respectable hurricane.

Those that take it that far north also move it more toward the central Gulf coast too, right?