ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

From tonight's discussion:

"It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be
a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3"

Not sure I've ever read similar verbiage as that in any other discussion.

[psyclone]

The heaviest rainfall from the GFS 18z run was over the FL Panhandle upwards of 14 inches. The key to this storm and who it effects will be when the westward turn occurs, how far north the system has tracked and how far eastward it is in longitude. Many more model runs to come and much yet to be determined!

Maybe. Jason mentioned 1998 Frances a while back having flooded him in Houston. Frances was off the coast of Corpus Christi, so not very far north, and flooded the **** out of New Orleans as I also got stuck on a neutral ground for about 6 hours trying to wait out the flooding. To me, it's the size and structure that will matter. It doesn't appear that anything that does form is going to race off to to northeast. And if it doesn't get super strong (e.g. Cat 2 or 3), expect the majority of the rainfall to be in east side feeder moisture as you said. I don't envision one of those super sloppy storms where the center keeps reforming - at least not once it's established. So how does the inflow banding set up? Will it be majority South to North bands because if so, those are the ones that will flood people out. As you know from where you are on the coast, if the bands are just rotating through, you get those brief downpours and gusts then a break. But if they're oriented N-S, you know that anyone from Lafayette and possibly as eastward as Panama City or so could be under prolonged deluges if the system is spinning off the TX Coast. Obviously, it's all hypothetical. I don't expect much resolution until late Wednesday or Thursday. Will impulses/lows keep rotating around the "gyre"? Will one take over and break out of that breeding ground? Definitely much more to be determined like you said.

I think this makes sense. Our system looks really good (especially by early June standards). there's a good possibility the high qpf depicted on the florida west coast is a byproduct of high PWAT air and southeasterlies stacking up afternoon convection on the west coast over multiple days...In other words our normal rainy season pattern on steroids. we can really pay rent in such a setup and still remain well east of the eventual storm track.

[NDG]

I am still not buying the potential of TD 3 diving back down into Mexico, dying out with another system developing near the northern coast of the Yucatan P from another vorticity rotating around. Like I mentioned before, I don't ever recall seeing that before.

[Steve]

The heaviest rainfall from the GFS 18z run was over the FL Panhandle upwards of 14 inches. The key to this storm and who it effects will be when the westward turn occurs, how far north the system has tracked and how far eastward it is in longitude. Many more model runs to come and much yet to be determined!

Maybe. Jason mentioned 1998 Frances a while back having flooded him in Houston. Frances was off the coast of Corpus Christi, so not very far north, and flooded the **** out of New Orleans as I also got stuck on a neutral ground for about 6 hours trying to wait out the flooding. To me, it's the size and structure that will matter. It doesn't appear that anything that does form is going to race off to to northeast. And if it doesn't get super strong (e.g. Cat 2 or 3), expect the majority of the rainfall to be in east side feeder moisture as you said. I don't envision one of those super sloppy storms where the center keeps reforming - at least not once it's established. So how does the inflow banding set up? Will it be majority South to North bands because if so, those are the ones that will flood people out. As you know from where you are on the coast, if the bands are just rotating through, you get those brief downpours and gusts then a break. But if they're oriented N-S, you know that anyone from Lafayette and possibly as eastward as Panama City or so could be under prolonged deluges if the system is spinning off the TX Coast. Obviously, it's all hypothetical. I don't expect much resolution until late Wednesday or Thursday. Will impulses/lows keep rotating around the "gyre"? Will one take over and break out of that breeding ground? Definitely much more to be determined like you said.

I think this makes sense. Our system looks really good (especially by early June standards). there's a good possibility the high qpf depicted on the florida west coast is a byproduct of high PWAT air and southeasterlies stacking up afternoon convection on the west coast over multiple days...In other words our normal rainy season pattern on steroids. we can really pay rent in such a setup and still remain well east of the eventual storm track.

The FL West Coast though could certainly be under a lot of tropical feeder moisture if the system doesn't get too organized early and moves out toward the middle of the Gulf for a while like some of the models have indicated. WC FL could find themselves in a situation with eastern side feeder moisture as well as a connection to the Caribbean which obviously could lead to some 5-7" totals depending on how it lines up. Again, that's just in the scenario I was talking about. Several options are on the table including a stronger storm that could consolidate as it moved north and take most of the rainfall on its path.

[Steve]

I am still not buying the potential of TD 3 diving back down into Mexico, dying out with another system developing near the northern coast of the Yucatan P from another vorticity rotating around. Like I mentioned before, I don't ever recall seeing that before.

We've seen gyres be breeding grounds for multiple storms in the past. So it's not out of the realm of possibility. Seems to me that we don't usually get this type of setup in Early June - more like the EPAC season and closer to around the Mexican Riviera. Beven noted the possibility in the 10pm Discussion, so the NHC is acknowledging it might happen. I don't think you can rule it out yet.

[EquusStorm]

Sure would be very fitting for 2020 if the gyre did spit another one out and we're at Dolly on the first week of hurricane season

[Blinhart]

I was surprised by one of our local meteorologists tonight when he said this system is not going to hit the panhandle and going to turn west. He is counting on a blocking high to our northeast to turn it west. He might be right but I think he stuck his neck out a little to calm people down in the panhandle after Hurricane Michael. I really think it is a little too early in the game to be making blanket statements.

Not much of a stretch, most models say that the panhandle is not under the gun with this one.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267631531545116672

yeah I mentioned this very thing in the model thread several hours ago..

it is very important..

Yep, here's the EC ensembles forecast for 06z, based on the latest Fix at 03z we can scratch out the ones on the western envelope.

[Steve]

I was surprised by one of our local meteorologists tonight when he said this system is not going to hit the panhandle and going to turn west. He is counting on a blocking high to our northeast to turn it west. He might be right but I think he stuck his neck out a little to calm people down in the panhandle after Hurricane Michael. I really think it is a little too early in the game to be making blanket statements.

Not much of a stretch, most models say that the panhandle is not under the gun with this one.

Maybe this far out landfall doesn't look that likely there, but like Dean was saying, they could get some of the worst rainfall totals. Same goes for Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana <-- again depending on structure, size and organization.

[Blinhart]

I was surprised by one of our local meteorologists tonight when he said this system is not going to hit the panhandle and going to turn west. He is counting on a blocking high to our northeast to turn it west. He might be right but I think he stuck his neck out a little to calm people down in the panhandle after Hurricane Michael. I really think it is a little too early in the game to be making blanket statements.

Not much of a stretch, most models say that the panhandle is not under the gun with this one.

Maybe this far out landfall doesn't look that likely there, but like Dean was saying, they could get some of the worst rainfall totals. Same goes for Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana <-- again depending on structure, size and organization.

I agree, but I'm pretty sure the meteorologist was talking about the landfall of Cristobal, now for rainfall everyone along the Gulfcoast could be under a lot of rain for the next week or so.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267631531545116672

yeah I mentioned this very thing in the model thread several hours ago..

it is very important..

Yep, here's the EC ensembles forecast for 06z, based on the latest Fix at 03z we can scratch out the ones on the western envelope.

https://i.imgur.com/tG2BF9C.jpg

ukmet is the only one and icon sort of..

And on radar its slightly farther east.

And the other thing is.. it shoukd be moving west at a decent clip right now too per the models... but it has barely moved all day.

[La Breeze]

Ah, ok, got it.

Pretty sure he meant a "left" turn as the high builds in...

Yeah I apologize. When I said right turn I meant from a bird's eye view. It's like a car driving west then takes a right (north) turn into East Texas in a previous model run. It rides the corner of the high.

No prob. I just thought that I missed something.

[floridasun78]

my weather office here in miami watching in case it have more east track that shoiw by gfs here what miami weather office say Currently, the GFS is the slightly faster and more eastern solution.The latest run depicts the low emerging a bit closer to the western coast of South Florida and dragging a deeper pool of moisture (PWATS sooo whole gulf coast from sw fl to southern gulf state texas this not going easy system to track

[Astromanía]

Tabasco, Campeche, Veracruz and Chiapas are being affected by torrential rain right now, how much time this thing is gonna stay close to the mexican coast before go away? It is possible that makes landfall as a tropical storm in México after all?

[Hurricane Mike]

Anyone else thinking that there will be a center re-location? That convection blob (possibly the mid-level remnants of Amanda) are really firing over the middle of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[Steve]

Tabasco, Campeche, Veracruz and Chiapas are being affected by torrential rain right now, how much time this thing is gonna stay close to the mexican coast before go away? It is possible that makes landfall as a tropical storm in México after all?

Looks like 80-90 hours or so. So maybe 3 1/2 days?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267639242403966976



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1267635274546200576



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1267640084381274114



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1267644142752071681



 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1267634462503981058

[Astromanía]

Tabasco, Campeche, Veracruz and Chiapas are being affected by torrential rain right now, how much time this thing is gonna stay close to the mexican coast before go away? It is possible that makes landfall as a tropical storm in México after all?

Looks like 80-90 hours or so. So maybe 3 1/2 days?

Ugh, not good, that's not a place you want a flooding to affect for a lot of time in México, I'm afraid this thing will cause much economic damage and many lives will be Lost.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1267728066639470592

[Aric Dunn]

It has moved very little in the last 12 hours. Models will respond to this soon.