BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 90.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight
or Friday.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 90.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6
km/h). A turn toward the east and northeast is expected tonight,
and a subsequent generally northward motion should occur through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme
northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The
center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico
late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and
approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification
is expected to begin late Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5
to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and
Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches.
Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little
deep convection near the center. The current intensity estimate is
30 kt, although this may be generous. Since the center should
remain over land into Friday morning, some additional weakening
could occur during the next 12-24 hours. A re-intensification
trend is expected to commence in 36 hours, assuming that the center
moves back into the Gulf of Mexico by then. As noted earlier, the
atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive
for strengthening, with moderate southwesterly shear and some
mid-level dry air. There are a number of arc clouds noted in
satellite images over the Gulf at this time, which is indicative of
drier air at mid-levels. As in the earlier advisories, the NHC
intensity forecast is higher than the model consensus. Due to the
limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some
uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the
northern Gulf coast.
The system is turning to the left as it executes a partial cyclonic
loop within a broad gyre. Beginning tomorrow night, Cristobal
should head northward over the Gulf into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. There has not been much change in the official
track forecast, which follows the simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus. The ECMWF model does show a little more shift to
the left in 3-4 days which is also reflected in the NHC track.
This should not be considered as a significant change, however,
especially for a broad cyclone such as this one.
The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected
in the official wind radii forecast. This suggests that when the
storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may
occur at a large distance from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far
southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also
extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El
Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local
weather office for more information.
2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals
center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued
tonight or Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 17.5N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.4N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 21.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/0600Z 25.6N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1800Z 31.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 90.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight
or Friday.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 90.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6
km/h). A turn toward the east and northeast is expected tonight,
and a subsequent generally northward motion should occur through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme
northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The
center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico
late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and
approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification
is expected to begin late Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5
to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and
Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches.
Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.
El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little
deep convection near the center. The current intensity estimate is
30 kt, although this may be generous. Since the center should
remain over land into Friday morning, some additional weakening
could occur during the next 12-24 hours. A re-intensification
trend is expected to commence in 36 hours, assuming that the center
moves back into the Gulf of Mexico by then. As noted earlier, the
atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive
for strengthening, with moderate southwesterly shear and some
mid-level dry air. There are a number of arc clouds noted in
satellite images over the Gulf at this time, which is indicative of
drier air at mid-levels. As in the earlier advisories, the NHC
intensity forecast is higher than the model consensus. Due to the
limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some
uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the
northern Gulf coast.
The system is turning to the left as it executes a partial cyclonic
loop within a broad gyre. Beginning tomorrow night, Cristobal
should head northward over the Gulf into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. There has not been much change in the official
track forecast, which follows the simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus. The ECMWF model does show a little more shift to
the left in 3-4 days which is also reflected in the NHC track.
This should not be considered as a significant change, however,
especially for a broad cyclone such as this one.
The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected
in the official wind radii forecast. This suggests that when the
storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may
occur at a large distance from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far
southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also
extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El
Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local
weather office for more information.
2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals
center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued
tonight or Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 17.5N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.4N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 21.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/0600Z 25.6N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1800Z 31.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
