Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
1100 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020
A burst of deep convection in the northwest quadrant of Boris
flared earlier this morning and has collapsed in the past hour,
exposing the low-level circulation center. Dvorak Current Intensity
estimates range from 1.0 at SAB to 1.5 out of PHFO and ADT, while
JTWC has deemed the system unclassifiable. Given the recent burst of
deep convection, we will hold the initial intensity at 30 kt,
though this could be generous. The depression continues to move
toward the west (265 degrees) at 6 kt.
Boris is expected to slowly weaken over the next couple of days.
Southerly vertical wind shear will limit the depth of the
circulation and will likely only allow deep convection to
periodically flare and collapse near the center. The system will
also continue to ingest relatively dry low- to mid-level air. As a
result, the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
tonight or Sunday and dissipate on Monday. The official intensity
forecast has changed little and remains in line with LGEM, SHIPS,
and ICON. Guidance remains in good agreement that a deep ridge to
the north is expected to push the increasingly shallow system
toward the west then west-southwest until dissipation.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 12.3N 141.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.1N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 11.6N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 11.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Wroe
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
1100 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020
A burst of deep convection in the northwest quadrant of Boris
flared earlier this morning and has collapsed in the past hour,
exposing the low-level circulation center. Dvorak Current Intensity
estimates range from 1.0 at SAB to 1.5 out of PHFO and ADT, while
JTWC has deemed the system unclassifiable. Given the recent burst of
deep convection, we will hold the initial intensity at 30 kt,
though this could be generous. The depression continues to move
toward the west (265 degrees) at 6 kt.
Boris is expected to slowly weaken over the next couple of days.
Southerly vertical wind shear will limit the depth of the
circulation and will likely only allow deep convection to
periodically flare and collapse near the center. The system will
also continue to ingest relatively dry low- to mid-level air. As a
result, the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
tonight or Sunday and dissipate on Monday. The official intensity
forecast has changed little and remains in line with LGEM, SHIPS,
and ICON. Guidance remains in good agreement that a deep ridge to
the north is expected to push the increasingly shallow system
toward the west then west-southwest until dissipation.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 12.3N 141.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.1N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 11.6N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 11.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Wroe