BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five
was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 68.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected by tonight,
followed by further acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and
north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is likely, however the system
could become a tropical storm later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on
Bermuda and over the nearby waters later today or tonight. The
Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more
information please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 4 inches in and around Bermuda.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020
Late yesterday, a small low pressure system developed near the end
of a boundary over the western Atlantic. The low persisted overnight
while producing convection that has shown increasing signs of
organization. Although the low's center has recently become
obscured, earlier one-minute visible imagery confirmed that it is
well-defined. The system therefore meets the necessary criteria to
be designated as a tropical cyclone. A TAFB Dvorak classification of
2.0 is the basis for the 30 kt initial intensity.
The depression is moving quickly toward the east-northeast, caught
in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its south and a a trough
to its north. This steering pattern is expected to be fairly stable
for the next day or so, and the guidance is in good agreement that
the cyclone will continue on its current general heading with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC
track forecast closely follows the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.
The depression has a sheared appearance, with no convection
northwest of its low-level center. A combination of strong
upper-level westerly winds and dry mid-level air to the northwest
are likely the cause of this, and it is unlikely that the cyclone
will get much better organized during the next day or two. That
said, some minimal strengthening is possible, even if only due to
the expected increase of the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC
intensity forecast is based on a consensus of the HWRF, HMON, and
GFS models. It is worth noting that the statistical guidance
indicates more strengthening is possible, but this is not currently
supported by any dynamical models. There is less agreement on the
system's future beyond the weekend. It could open into a trough and
dissipate or persist long enough to undergo extratropical
transition. Since this is the first advisory, the official forecast
is somewhat conservative and maintains the system as a closed low
for 60 h, but it could certainly dissipate sooner than that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 31.1N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 32.1N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 36.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 39.2N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 41.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five
was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 68.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected by tonight,
followed by further acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and
north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is likely, however the system
could become a tropical storm later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on
Bermuda and over the nearby waters later today or tonight. The
Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more
information please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 4 inches in and around Bermuda.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020
Late yesterday, a small low pressure system developed near the end
of a boundary over the western Atlantic. The low persisted overnight
while producing convection that has shown increasing signs of
organization. Although the low's center has recently become
obscured, earlier one-minute visible imagery confirmed that it is
well-defined. The system therefore meets the necessary criteria to
be designated as a tropical cyclone. A TAFB Dvorak classification of
2.0 is the basis for the 30 kt initial intensity.
The depression is moving quickly toward the east-northeast, caught
in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its south and a a trough
to its north. This steering pattern is expected to be fairly stable
for the next day or so, and the guidance is in good agreement that
the cyclone will continue on its current general heading with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC
track forecast closely follows the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.
The depression has a sheared appearance, with no convection
northwest of its low-level center. A combination of strong
upper-level westerly winds and dry mid-level air to the northwest
are likely the cause of this, and it is unlikely that the cyclone
will get much better organized during the next day or two. That
said, some minimal strengthening is possible, even if only due to
the expected increase of the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC
intensity forecast is based on a consensus of the HWRF, HMON, and
GFS models. It is worth noting that the statistical guidance
indicates more strengthening is possible, but this is not currently
supported by any dynamical models. There is less agreement on the
system's future beyond the weekend. It could open into a trough and
dissipate or persist long enough to undergo extratropical
transition. Since this is the first advisory, the official forecast
is somewhat conservative and maintains the system as a closed low
for 60 h, but it could certainly dissipate sooner than that.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 31.1N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 32.1N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 36.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 39.2N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 41.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky