EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 97, 2020070518, , BEST, 0, 85N, 985W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, ep712020 to ep972020,

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward,
well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

This is misleading as I thought it was already designated.

[cycloneye]

This is misleading as I thought it was already designated.

The best track came out now.

[cycloneye]

Location: 8.5°N 98.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[cycloneye]

Up to Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Peak is 81kt in this first run.

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972020 07/05/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 39 44 51 61 66 74 79 81 75 67 61 56
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 39 44 51 61 66 74 79 81 75 67 61 56
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 33 33 32 33 35 39 43 41 34 28 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 13 15 19 24 20 15 14 6 6 8 3 8 7 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 13 13 11 5 1 6 10 7 1 -1 -4 2 5 3 2 -3
SHEAR DIR 75 61 54 40 27 7 21 18 352 327 313 355 3 88 109 133 226
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 29.1 29.1 28.2 27.9 27.6 25.0 22.0 20.8 21.2 21.8
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 147 145 145 149 156 157 147 145 142 117 86 73 76 83
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 4 5 7 6 6 3 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 65 66 69 73 73 77 77 76 78 77 80 79 75 70 64 58 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 11 13 14 16 16 19 21 24 23 21 21 20
850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 6 7 17 20 22 -5 -11 -10 33 48 54 23 48 46 62
200 MB DIV 15 8 0 -1 0 57 81 130 140 140 80 69 26 14 0 2 7
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 -8 -4 -6 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 830 867 915 972 1010 1050 1020 896 708 548 398 384 227 366 624 1008 1439
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.4 7.4 8.2 9.9 12.1 14.4 16.9 19.1 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.3 100.0 100.5 101.0 102.0 103.2 104.3 105.3 106.5 107.7 109.1 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 6 8 11 13 13 13 15 20 22 21 19 20
HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 14 14 14 17 21 30 15 9 5 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 29. 27. 25. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 17. 18. 20. 17. 14. 12. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 31. 36. 44. 49. 51. 45. 37. 31. 26.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.5 98.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 1.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.19 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.4% 13.4% 9.3% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% 10.9%
Logistic: 0.7% 7.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 16.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.3% 8.0% 5.0% 3.3% 0.0% 4.5% 0.3% 9.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

Slowly but surely.

[aspen]

12z GFS was a lot weaker than previous runs, and it looks like it’s having trouble with the size of 97E. It takes time for the broad disturbance to coalesce, and the nearby broad circulation of 96E in this run seems to be causing problems, like the GFS thinks they’re part of the same disturbance. It won’t be too long before the 18z run is up.

[BYG Jacob]

12z GFS was a lot weaker than previous runs, and it looks like it’s having trouble with the size of 97E. It takes time for the broad disturbance to coalesce, and the nearby broad circulation of 96E in this run seems to be causing problems, like the GFS thinks they’re part of the same disturbance. It won’t be too long before the 18z run is up.

Here we go again

[Kingarabian]

Yup, the 18z GFS shows 97E interacting with 96E much more on this run. Now has them doing a Fujiwhara .

[cycloneye]

EC does not do that.

[Kingarabian]

EC does not do that.

Yes, neither the Euro or the UKMET do that.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[aspen]

Both moderate TSs or weak C1s on this run. I have a feeling the interactions between the two are going to make model estimates of 97E’s future intensity rather unreliable. Just gonna have to wait until it forms in 2-3 days.

[Kingarabian]

Ahhh. If they Fujiwhara there's a good chance they both crap out.

[Yellow Evan]

If I had a dollar for every time the GFS showed a binary interaction that didn’t pan out, I’d be a billionaire and not just some dude posting on a weather forum.

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure system located several hundred miles south
and south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a
large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Location: 8.5°N 96.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

SHIP scales back intensity from hurricane that had in the first run.

[Yellow Evan]

X to doubt the shear values.

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972020 07/06/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 29 35 42 45 46 47 46 42 37 32 27
V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 29 35 42 45 46 47 46 42 37 32 27
V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 15 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 19 21 18 20 20 19 12 16 15 10 5 3 8 9 14 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 2 1 7 1 3 0 -3 -4 2 2 0 1 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 49 44 34 20 16 25 21 349 329 321 324 348 302 254 220 210 220
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.9 28.9 28.2 28.2 27.1 25.7 23.5 21.8 21.8 22.1 23.4
POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 152 156 156 165 155 147 147 136 122 100 82 82 85 98
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 7 6 6 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 73 76 81 82 82 82 81 80 78 78 78 78 71 70 64 60 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 13 1 -8 -11 -7 0 28 18 33 34 49 79 64 78 114
200 MB DIV 55 62 63 65 68 82 133 125 112 74 50 34 33 28 0 11 -22
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -8 -6 0 -1 -6 -10 -9 3 -10 -3 -14
LAND (KM) 778 801 785 765 737 655 561 429 354 307 379 280 384 612 868 1230 1591
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.4 10.7 12.5 14.5 16.3 18.0 19.5 20.8 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 97.2 97.9 98.8 100.7 102.7 104.5 106.1 107.5 109.2 111.5 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 10 13 13 13 12 11 12 14 16 18 18 17 15
HEAT CONTENT 15 15 18 20 24 34 43 22 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. 32. 30. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 4. 10. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. 17. 12. 7. 2.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 96.0

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.02 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 3.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 5.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 7.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##