EPAC: SIX-E - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

98E INVEST 200711 1200 13.1N 96.9W EPAC 20 1009

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad low pressure system that has developed southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are currently
unfavorable for development of a tropical cyclone, environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for the formation
of a tropical depression in two to three days while the system
moves quickly westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico, has become a little better defined this
morning. Although upper-level winds are currently only marginally
conducive for development of a tropical cyclone, environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for the formation
of a tropical depression in two or three days while the system
moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is now with GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure why this is at 50/80 if I’m being honest. 30/40 is pushing it.

[Kingarabian]

There is still some ensemble support.

[AveryTheComrade]

I feel that 50/80 is far too optimistic for this system, HWRF and HMON seem to be the only convincing models that have it developing

[Kingarabian]

The reason this is 50/80 is because the models were developing it for the past week. Today the models stopped upon it being designated as an Invest.

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure what's stopping this from developing TBH. GFS wind shear forecast is favorable in its path along with good RH levels and sufficiently warm SST's.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not sure what's stopping this from developing TBH. GFS wind shear forecast is favorable in its path along with good RH levels and sufficiently warm SST's.

12z GFS races this into a high shear environment. If it slows down, conditions could be more conducive.

[aspen]

The reason this is 50/80 is because the models were developing it for the past week. Today the models stopped upon it being designated as an Invest.

Every time...models hype it up for a week, and as soon as it’s designated, they give up on it and hype the next system.

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure what's stopping this from developing TBH. GFS wind shear forecast is favorable in its path along with good RH levels and sufficiently warm SST's.

12z GFS races this into a high shear environment. If it slows down, conditions could be more conducive.

Looks pretty clear @ 200mb, no?

[NDG]

Next!

[Sciencerocks]

Wow, that is pretty well organized within my opinion. Not exactly next even without much model support!

[Yellow Evan]

12/1130 UTC 15.5N 103.0W T1.0/1.0 98E -- East Pacific

[aspen]

Wow, that is pretty well organized within my opinion. Not exactly next even without much model support!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6019/1J9AJA.gif

Maybe it’ll briefly become a TD or a very weak TS before poofing.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a small low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast
to gradually become more favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system
moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12/1730 UTC 15.9N 104.4W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

12/1730 UTC 15.9N 104.4W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific

It's getting close.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF if anything have this weakening. I have deep reservations on formation.