EPAC: SIX-E - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:33 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located about 1000 miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico have changed little in organization during the
past several hours. Environmental conditions are forecast to
gradually become more favorable for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the
system moves quickly west-northwestward to westward, well south of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:17 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982020 07/13/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 45 44 40 36 33 30 32 34 34 36
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 45 44 40 36 33 30 32 34 34 36
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 34 34 33 31 29 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 15 14 9 8 7 12 16 25 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 0 4 -2 3 -2 -5 -3 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 38 35 27 23 20 13 340 328 269 258 249 252 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.8 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.0 24.5 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 154 156 155 151 145 134 131 130 125 109 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 72 72 75 73 71 66 64 59 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 -5 -12 -10 -13 -4 -3 -10 -6 -4 -17 -19 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 45 24 5 6 5 5 4 10 12 6 4 5 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 1 6 3 5 9 6 5 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 448 552 686 792 854 1100 1372 1654 1946 2218 2078 1765 1538 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 17 15 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 17 22 16 10 5 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 15. 14. 10. 6. 3. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 107.0

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/13/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 5.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.17 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.26 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 18.3% 15.0% 10.3% 0.0% 15.1% 16.3% 10.9%
Logistic: 0.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.6% 8.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.3% 6.9% 5.2% 3.5% 0.1% 5.4% 6.3% 6.5%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/13/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:17 pm

12/2330 UTC 16.6N 106.5W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#24 Postby Chris90 » Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:57 pm

Watch all of us have low expectations for this, and it'll end up being the storm that finally gets to hurricane status.

There has been a nice convective blowup recently.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#25 Postby Chris90 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:15 am

I actually think there's a decent circulation with this now that is worthy of classification, maybe even a name. It's been maintaining some pretty nice convection as well. Might be a far cry from a CDO, but it's still something.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:10 am

The window closes on Wednesday night.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina, located over 1000 miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little more
concentrated overnight in association with a small low pressure area
located less than 200 miles south-southeast of Socorro Island,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become
more conducive for development, and this system still has the
potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so
while it moves generally westward at about 20 mph. However,
conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical
cyclone development by Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:07 am

This system had two problems for development:

1-North of 15N that has less warm waters as it moves west
2-Moving like Speedy Gonzalez.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#28 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:15 am

Third and biggest problem for development: it existed in 2020.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#29 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:27 pm

Chris90 wrote:I actually think there's a decent circulation with this now that is worthy of classification, maybe even a name. It's been maintaining some pretty nice convection as well. Might be a far cry from a CDO, but it's still something.


Just 5 hrs prior to you post earlier this morning ASCAT showed that it was a very broad circulation, noticed by the NHC I am sure.
I am sure it continues to be a broad circulation as I type this, lets see if the pass this afternoon catches it.


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:07 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Thunderstorm activity has persisted near the center of a small low
pressure area located less than 200 miles south-southwest of Socorro
Island, Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually
become more conducive for development, and this system still has
the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or
so while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. However,
conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical
cyclone development by Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:48 pm

13/1730 UTC 16.8N 111.9W T2.0/2.0 98E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#32 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:25 pm

Best track now listing this as 06E. Upgrade likely coming at 2:00 p.m. PDT. Some slight intensification is possible, but it may not even get named.
EP, 06, 2020071318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1119W, 30, 1007, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:40 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Best track now listing this as 06E. Upgrade likely coming at 2:00 p.m. PDT. Some slight intensification is possible, but it may not even get named.
EP, 06, 2020071318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1119W, 30, 1007, LO


Post the link to the best track as I lost it.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#34 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Best track now listing this as 06E. Upgrade likely coming at 2:00 p.m. PDT. Some slight intensification is possible, but it may not even get named.
EP, 06, 2020071318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1119W, 30, 1007, LO


Post the link to the best track as I lost it.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#35 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:21 pm

Still waiting to track something in the EPAC that doesn't suck.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#36 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:24 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Still waiting to track something in the EPAC that doesn't suck.


I think you'll be in for a very long wait. :craz:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#37 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:27 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Still waiting to track something in the EPAC that doesn't suck.


I think you'll be in for a very long wait. :craz:

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#38 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:27 pm

I am very surprised they are upgrading it with ASCAT showing it not being closed completely, unless because is moving westward so fast that it was hard to catch a west wind barb by ASCAT.

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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:35 pm

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the
NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a
well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B
surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being
classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed
overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level
center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the
convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also
decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to
close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer
wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is
consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt
from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional,
microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12
hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally
westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due
to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the
depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an
open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly
packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of
the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA.

The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting
the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18
hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow
for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or
so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26
deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become
westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these
two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the
small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low
by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast
closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression

#40 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the
NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a
well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B
surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being
classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed
overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level
center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the
convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also
decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to
close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer
wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is
consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt
from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional,
microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12
hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally
westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due
to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the
depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an
open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly
packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of
the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA.

The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting
the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18
hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow
for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or
so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26
deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become
westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these
two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the
small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low
by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast
closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

:spam:

^ I think this emoji sums up how the EPac has been so far with these kinds of systems :lol:
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