EPAC: SEVEN-E - Unnamed Tropical Storm - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:52 pm

A low pressure system is located a little more than 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Although the low is beginning to move over cooler waters, the
associated thunderstorm activity has increased over the past few
hours, and this system could become a short-lived tropical
depression later tonight or on Monday while it moves
west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#22 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:55 pm

:uarrow:
I don't see a reason for this to not be classified by the next advisory... much less 50/50.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 19, 2020 6:58 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
I don't see a reason for this to not be classified by the next advisory... much less 50/50.


Robert Pasch did the TWO. Not exactly known for being liberal with his outlooks for better or worse.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:14 pm

19/2330 UTC 16.9N 127.9W T2.0/2.0 99E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#25 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:55 pm

Looks like it's at least a depression now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:13 pm

EP, 99, 2020072000, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1280W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:52 pm

No idea why this hasn't been classified yet.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#28 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:55 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:No idea why this hasn't been classified yet.

I guess the NHC has given up on the EPac even more than we have.

06z, maybe?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 19, 2020 10:04 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:No idea why this hasn't been classified yet.

I guess the NHC has given up on the EPac even more than we have.

06z, maybe?


Might be over too cold of waters then. SST’s drop below 25C soon.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#30 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:32 am

We have Seven-E.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#31 Postby al78 » Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:47 am

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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#32 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:52 am

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 19 2020

The small low pressure are that the National Hurricane Center has
been tracking for the past couple of days has finally developed
enough persistent organized deep convection for the system to
classified as Tropical Depression Seven-E. An earlier burst of
strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C helped to spin up
the low-level wind field and cause the center to become better
defined based on a 0529 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. The aforementioned
scatterometer data showed surface winds of 29-30 kt in the western
semicircle, which is the basis for the 30-kt initial intensity. This
intensity is also supported by 06Z Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 310/10 kt based on conventional,
microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12
hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered northwestward to
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next day
or so due to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the
depression. By 24-36 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into a
shallow remnant low and be steered westward through 48-60 h,
followed by a turn toward the southwest before dissipating by 96 h.
The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly packed
simple consensus models, which is consistent with the NOAA
corrected-consensus model, HCCA.

Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain low at less
than 5 kt for the next 24 h or so, the small cyclone is already
moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with
slightly cooler water ahead of the system. The ingestion of cooler
and drier air, along with the cool SSTs, is expected to weaken the
system below depression status by 24 h. Although it is possible that
the system could hold on to tropical cyclone status a little longer
than currently indicated, especially when the system moves
southwestward toward warmer water, moderate to strong southwesterly
vertical wind shear should cause the small cyclone to dissipate by
96 h. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN
intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 18.0N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 19.3N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1800Z 18.9N 134.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0600Z 18.0N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 22/1800Z 16.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0600Z 13.7N 141.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:59 am

20/1130 UTC 18.3N 130.0W T1.5/2.0 07E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:01 am

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN EP072020 07/20/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 28 27 25 25 26 29 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 36
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 28 27 25 25 26 29 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 36
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 8 8 2 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 55 78 91 109 108 102 28 15 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.3 24.7 24.4 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.9 26.4 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 116 110 107 110 109 107 114 130 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 59 59 56 52 55 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -39 -46 -39 -34 -34 -11 22 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 26 15 16 7 2 0 -8 0 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 7 6 4 7 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1838 1879 1925 2022 2121 1974 1741 1567 1451 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.5 19.4 18.8 17.5 15.0 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 129.8 130.7 131.6 132.7 133.7 136.0 138.4 140.8 143.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 129.8

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072020 SEVEN 07/20/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.24 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.9% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072020 SEVEN 07/20/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:53 am

Well... officially more depressions than named storms thus far. Here's hoping for a couple big long trackers before too long because this season's been surreal so far
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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:18 am

For a weak, short-lived TD, it could look a lot worse.
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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:46 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 201432
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Even with its center now over 25 degrees Celsius water, the
depression continues to produce a small area of deep convection
which is asymmetrically favoring the southwestern semicircle of the
circulation. With Dvorak Current Intensity numbers of 2.0/30 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and no appreciable change in the overall
convective structure, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
Thermodynamics are expected to be the primary limiting factor on
the depression's intensity, as sea surface temperatures along the
system's path continue to drop and the atmosphere becomes drier and
more stable. As such, the depression is expected to lose organized
deep convection, weaken, and degenerate into a remnant low in about
24 hours. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in about 3
days, if not sooner, based on the latest global model guidance.
The updated NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the
previous advisory.

The depression is located along the southwestern edge of a
mid-tropospheric high centered west of the Baja California
peninsula, and to the southeast of a large mid-/upper-level low
centered northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The resultant flow
around these features is imparting a northwestward motion on the
depression at around 11 kt. With the depression expected to weaken
over the next few days, it should become increasingly steered by
lower-level winds, causing it to turn west-northwestward and then
westward before it dissipates. The official track forecast lies
close to HCCA and the other multi-model consensus aids, and it has
been shifted slightly north of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 18.7N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.4N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 19.7N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 19.3N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 18.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 17.3N 141.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:46 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUL 2020 Time : 162032 UTC
Lat : 18:49:31 N Lon : 130:30:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1008.9mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : -9.5C Cloud Region Temp : -22.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in MD GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:40 pm

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2020

The depression continues to move over waters colder than 25 degrees
Celsius, and its low-level center is exposed to the east of a
relatively small area of deep convection. A very recent ASCAT
pass showed maximum winds of 30 kt, and that remains the
initial intensity for this advisory. This estimate is also in
agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications from TAFB and
SAB. The cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should
cause the remaining deep convection to dissipate soon, which will
also lead to a gradual decrease in the system's winds. The official
forecast therefore shows the depression degenerating into a remnant
low by 24 hours. The remnant low is now shown to dissipate by 60
hours, although global model guidance suggests that this could
occur even sooner than that.

The depression's initial motion is still northwestward, or 305/9
kt, although the system appears to be gradually making a turn to
the left. As it becomes a shallower system with the loss of deep
convection, the depression is expected to turn west-northwestward
soon, and then westward and west-southwestward during the next
24-36 hours within the low-level trade winds. The GFS is somewhat
of a northern outlier on this cycle, and the NHC track forecast
more closely follows the ECMWF and the various consensus models.
This puts it very close to the forecast from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 19.0N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 19.4N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 18.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 18.1N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression

#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:40 pm

Given ASCAT’s winds, possible but not definitive that this was a tropical storm earlier.
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