EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/mikeadcockwx/status/1287509772116193280

[supercane4867]

Using the latest CPHC position, a 285 degree heading would track the center to the north of Oahu and eventually make a landfall in Kauai.

[supercane4867]

Kahuku in the Koolauloa District appears to be the most likely place to see hurricane force winds on Oahu. Anywhere north of Kaaawa should be worried.

[Bocadude85]

Using the latest CPHC position, a 285 degree heading would track the center to the north of Oahu and eventually make a landfall in Kauai.

Yes the southern eyewall would likely effect the north shore of Oahu as Douglas passes to the north

[CrazyC83]

Places farther south could easily see stronger winds from downsloping too, which would not be representative of the intensity but would be damaging regardless.

[Yellow Evan]

Per recon this may be deepening again given 87 FL and 78 SFMR or it could be just a sampling issue.

[CrazyC83]

Per recon this may be deepening again given 87 FL and 78 SFMR or it could be just a sampling issue.

Probably the latter. It will likely get corrected in the next update, although there's always an incipient margin of error in intensities (+/- 5% or so).

[Bocadude85]

I’m thinking the wind forecast for us here in Honolulu is a little to high, here is the current forecast from the NWS.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=HIZ005&warncounty=HIC003&firewxzone=HIZ005&local_place1=Waikiki%20HI&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=21.2812&lon=-157.8324#.Xx4IKS0-nxw

1104 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

HIZ005-270515-
/O.CON.PHFO.HU.W.2008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Oahu South Shore-
1104 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Honolulu
- Kapolei
- Ewa Beach
- Hawaii Kai

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 55-70 mph with gusts to 105 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until early Monday
morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property
should now be complete. The area remains subject to
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.

[supercane4867]

The center appears to have start wobbling due to the circulation possibly interacting with high terrains. Looks like a slight jog to the north just happened.

[Kingarabian]

So are the satellite depictions inaccurate? CPHC says the center is SE of the latest recon fix.

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
100 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...100 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves west-northwest, north of Maui. Hurricane Hunters from the Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron continue to conduct
missions through Douglas and have observed Douglas experiencing
southerly vertical wind shear. This has been factored into the radar
position fix below.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 156.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$

Forecaster M Ballard/Shigesato

[CrazyC83]

I’m thinking the wind forecast for us here in Honolulu is a little to high, here is the current forecast from the NWS.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=HIZ005&warncounty=HIC003&firewxzone=HIZ005&local_place1=Waikiki%20HI&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=21.2812&lon=-157.8324#.Xx4IKS0-nxw

1104 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

HIZ005-270515-
/O.CON.PHFO.HU.W.2008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Oahu South Shore-
1104 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Honolulu
- Kapolei
- Ewa Beach
- Hawaii Kai

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 55-70 mph with gusts to 105 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until early Monday
morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect life and property
should now be complete. The area remains subject to
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Now is the time to shelter from dangerous wind.

At sea level, most likely that is too high. Higher elevations and near mountain passes may see the high gusts though.

[aspen]

Eye is looking better on visible. Douglas really does not want to die.

[Kingarabian]

CPHC's position is much more westerly motion compared to recons.

12pm HST they had it @ 21.4N 156.0W
1PM HST it's @ 21.1N 156.2W

[CrazyC83]

Eye is looking better on visible. Douglas really does not want to die.

It is also closing back up on radar.

[supercane4867]

So are the satellite depictions inaccurate? CPHC says the center is SE of the latest recon fix.

The mid-level eye feature on visible satellite is well NE of the forecast track and will probably miss the islands completely.

[Kingarabian]

So are the satellite depictions inaccurate? CPHC says the center is SE of the latest recon fix.

The mid-level eye feature on visible satellite is well NE of the forecast track and will probably miss the islands completely.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/KqKaNMZ.gif[url]

I still think that's the eye and the actual position of the system. If the CPHC's estimates are true then Maui would be seeing hurricane conditions.

[Blown Away]

So are the satellite depictions inaccurate? CPHC says the center is SE of the latest recon fix.

The mid-level eye feature on visible satellite is well NE of the forecast track and will probably miss the islands completely.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/KqKaNMZ.gif[url]

I still think that's the eye and the actual position of the system. If the CPHC's estimates are true then Maui would be seeing hurricane conditions.

Are you able to post some satellite or radar loops?

[Kingarabian]

They corrected it.

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
100 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...100 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves west-northwest, north of Maui. Hurricane Hunters from the Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron continue to conduct
missions through Douglas and have observed Douglas experiencing
southerly vertical wind shear. This has been factored into the radar
position fix below.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 156.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NNE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$

Forecaster M Ballard/Shigesato

[Kingarabian]

We'll see where it's standing in an hour or so but I doubt much of Oahu gets anything out of this other than the north shore. So that's good news.

[MGC]

Current radar trends are encouraging for Oahu. North shore might get some gusty winds, large wave and heavy rain. Somewhere up the chain Douglas will impact though....MGC