ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[gfsperpendicular]

Similar to last night, he has managed to put together a dense little blob over the center. This storm is pretty resilient!
https://i.imgur.com/TQ9EsRl.jpg

if you look loop you see spin to his east not sure if that center remove to east of the blob

Recon seems to have it roughly in the middle of the blob so I think it's centered. Also look at those FL winds... Gonzalo is hanging on but barely!

[wxman57]

It appears to qualify for TD status. That was doubtful earlier today.

[Nimbus]

The convection appears to be WNW of a second LLC which means it might be elongated.
Doubt the models will do much with it though?

[drezee]

We are all being treated to a rare event. We just witnessed the death of a TC while recon was inside. Bye Gonzo...

[hurricanes1234]

Whatever becomes of this will literally be right over us here in T&T.

Currently Tobago is under a tropical storm warning and Trinidad is under an adverse weather alert (orange level) from 11 AM to 8 PM tomorrow.

I'll provide an update as to what transpires down here but it looks like we'll get the brunt of it.

If this makes it to T&T intact, it'll be our first tropical cyclone impact since Bret in 2017. We also had a close call with Karen in September last year.

[bob rulz]

Seems the NHC is on board with this not re-strengthening significantly. The Hurricane Watch has been canceled and that wouldn't happen unless they were pretty confident.

The NHC neither issues watches nor cancels them. It's the authorities in the various countries and territories who do that.

You are right, but certainly they get guidance from the NHC before they do so. I don't think they would cancel it if the NHC said "yeah this could totally still be a hurricane".

[arizona_sooner]

Well I hope it brings needed rainfall to T&T without strong winds

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Solely based off of the position of the convection, I believe Gonzalo may have finally crossed 10N. What a way to go out for this little guy.

[Chris90]

It's worth noting that when recon was out there they found unflagged SFMR values of 55 and 56kts, but they were flying at 925mb and the flight level winds were typically between 15-30kts. Strange behavior in this storm. They did find a few other instances of SFMR readings in the 40s to low 50s too.

I'm not sure what to think with him.

[hurricanes1234]

Well I hope it brings needed rainfall to T&T without strong winds

Yup, it's expected to bring a lot. One local forecasting agency is expecting isolated totals as high as 150 mm.

They said the potential for landslides on both islands is high too, given the increased chances for prolonged periods of rain and thunderstorms. Here it only takes a day or two of widespread heavy rain to cause landslips, sometimes even less time depending on the intensity of the rain.

The extra rain should be beneficial for the reservoirs though. Currently the rain gauge at Trinidad's airport is running well-below normal for the month of July, with barely 73 mm of rain thus far. The average for July there is more than 250 mm and we have less than a week left in the month.

[wx98]

Looks like a possible landfall on the northern part of Trinidad as it comes through, or it may just slide between there and Tobago.

[aspen]

The NAVGEM model has been incredibly stubborn about Gonzalo making it into the Gulf and re-intensifying into a hurricane. Maybe its remnants will get there, but the storm itself is likely to dissipate within 36-48 hours.

[hurricanes1234]

Is it still a tropical storm or has it been downgraded per the best track?

[BobHarlem]

Is it still a tropical storm or has it been downgraded per the best track?

The 11AM is out, still holding (barely) to the 40mph, TS strength. They are waiting for ASCAT to downgrade.

[tiger_deF]

The storm has been moving almost due west for basically the entirety of it's life

[northjaxpro]

The storm has been moving almost due west for basically the entirety of it's life

Yes it has, and one of the key reasons he has been able to persevere to this juncture by staying st very low latitude, right near 10 degrees N his entire lifespan. He has stayed away from being devoured from the SAL.

[wx98]

Now a depression:

2:00 PM AST Sat Jul 25
Location: 10.8°N 61.9°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[galaxy401]

RIP Gonzalo.

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Gonzalo Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

...REMNANTS OF GONZALO MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

It had a good run; the most notable thing about its impacts was that Grenada recorded a sustained 1-min wind of 28kt and gusts around 40kt, while Trinidad & Tobago didn't receive much aside from some small amounts of rain.

Gonzalo certainly was fun to track, and was the system that covered the "July MDR storm" bullet point from the above-average to hyperactive season checklist.

It has a slim chance of redevelopment, but I expect that this is the last message I'll send in here.

[gfsperpendicular]

RIP indeed. I wonder if the NHC will lemon his remains.