ATL: GONZALO - Models

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1285993767649124352

[Astromanía]

12z CMC track is almost iden tical to Emily 05

Oh no, so México could be on the target

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z GFS Ensembles

[supercane4867]

Both HWRF and HMON do show a weakening phase once the hurricane enters Eastern Caribbean, but it appears to be temporary and more than likely that it will stay intact as a TC.

[Nuno]

Global Models are just having a seriously hard time with everything this year..

maybe they can tone down the SAL parameter and the Climatology parameter lol

What is the reason for such short-term model inaccuracy as of late?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro looks to just about dissipate this before it reaches the islands likely due to high wind shear and dry air. Looks like a weak area of vorticity.

[northjaxpro]

It is still quite possible Gonzolo could get into the Gulf of Mexico next week. I mentioned that here at my office with the staff provided if it holds together.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12Z Euro looks to dissipate this before it reaches the islands likely due to high wind shear and dry air. Looks like a weak area of vorticity.

https://i.postimg.cc/wMsRs8ZZ/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

Some of you’ll are dismissing this storm too quickly.

[Hammy]

The 12Z Euro looks to just about dissipate this before it reaches the islands likely due to high wind shear and dry air. Looks like a weak area of vorticity.

https://i.postimg.cc/wMsRs8ZZ/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

Models do not do well with small storms.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The Euro has been playing catch up

[supercane4867]

The fact that 12z euro deepens 91L over 10mb inland just shows how off the global models have been this year.

[jconsor]

Note: CTCX is the US Navy COAMPS model initialized with GFS initial conditions.

 https://twitter.com/willkomaromi/status/1286001826521706496

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zcanadian has this hitting Texas as a minimal hurricane at day 10, no other model has that solution but the GFS ensembles show something for Texas at day 10 so may have to watch this even if it falls apart in the eastern Caribbean especially in the western GOM

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Super-cane

Please help me to understand the difference between the two graphics. Both say 12Z and yes I see one goes out further in time, but the troubling thing I see is a storm sitting north of the Islands heading to the southern Bahamas not a track I wan to see. I thought Gonz was staying down south as they say a Caribbean Cruiser.

[Highteeld]

The 12Z Euro looks to just about dissipate this before it reaches the islands likely due to high wind shear and dry air. Looks like a weak area of vorticity.

https://i.postimg.cc/wMsRs8ZZ/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

Models do not do well with small storms.

Dorian last year was probably the ultimate example of this ^

[HurricaneFrances04]

18Z GFS with another subtle shift north (now north of Barbados), and probably strongest run since the 00Z this morning.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is stronger and more north on the 18Z run with strengthening in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. Quite a change:

[ColdMiser123]

GFS continuing the trend of a stronger storm on approach to the Lesser Antilles, which also allows for a slower system, and a more poleward trajectory while in the Caribbean. That increases separation between Gonzalo and the strong, extremely unfavorable low level wind flow in the Caribbean. This run of the GFS should show the farthest west Gonzalo has gotten yet.

[HurricaneFrances04]

18Z GFS so far very similar to the 12Z NAVGEM....

Edit: Unsurprisingly, loses the small storm over Haiti.

[supercane4867]

GFS is on collision course with Hispaniola. That would bring a swift death to this small system. It may regenerate later on tho.