ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Center is outrunning the convection. All those outflow boundaries it has been throwing out are a sign of collapsing squalls near the center. Shear is hitting it hard. Doubt recon would find hurricane force wind now.

I think once it hits that Gulf Stream it will go back up to a cat 1 as it scrapes the FL coast...it did the same thing yesterday then built back up

Water temperatures are not the problem now, it's wind shear. It could strengthen when it turns north and tracks WITH the upper-level flow.

Which is why you for sure can’t count it out as it moves toward the Carolinas in a couple days.

[wx98]

Thank goodness I can just shut the weather channel off now this weekend and get stuff done. So happy that it’s fallen apart so much overnight. And development chances are only going to get worse. In MY opinion might still end up with a minimal tropical storm raking the east coast, unless it falls apart faster

I wouldn’t be so sure yet...

[cp79]

Seems to be moving more west?

Center is while storms are moving more NW and NNW. It’s about to become naked.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/NWSMelbourne/status/1289592661351915526

[GCANE]

4500 CAPE in the core.
Hmm, its sitting over a large island and dropping in convection.
Who would have thought of that?
All kidding aside, its packing a punch.
Wait until it gets back over water.

[wx98]

Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.

Models are about to be way off. center moving wnw..

Low level cloud deck beginning to really thicken.. new convective burst coming soon

https://i.ibb.co/qJ8c4ZM/444455577788990000.gif

That loop looks interesting. Lots of stuff going on there.

[toad strangler]

Gotta hand it to Morales, always has huge confidence in himself. We shall see!

 http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1289592071183982594

[Jr0d]

Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.

Models are about to be way off. center moving wnw..

Low level cloud deck beginning to really thicken.. new convective burst coming soon

https://i.ibb.co/qJ8c4ZM/444455577788990000.gif

Might be stuggling for the rest of the day, but expect a huge burst of convection when the gulfstream waters start feeding Isaias.

Not sure if the NHC will downgrade later if it is apparent Isaias is not a hurricane, given the potential for the storm to quickly regain hurricane strength.

[ObsessedMiami]

“No one is writing this storm off”

Followed by six or seven posts of people writing this storm off
SMH

[toad strangler]

Seems to be moving more west?

Center is while storms are moving more NW and NNW. It’s about to become naked.

yep, sure does look like a near Naked Swirl alert.

[alienstorm]

Important to note while convention is off to the east, you can see some bands wraaping to the north south of grand bahama. If these are able to wrap around later this afternoon then there is a chance for some intensification, in the meantime it is now steer by lower level winds thus a more westward component can be expected.

[GCANE]

Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.

Models are about to be way off. center moving wnw..

Low level cloud deck beginning to really thicken.. new convective burst coming soon

https://i.ibb.co/qJ8c4ZM/444455577788990000.gif

That outflow is on top of the infeeds.
Its not a surface-outflow boundary.
The outflow is mid troposphere, probably 500mb where all the dry air was measured earlier this morning.

[CronkPSU]

geeez, both of the latest models for GFS and Euro have it coming right over my house in Eastern Orange County and yet the liquor store was still empty this morning

[toad strangler]

geeez, both of the latest models for GFS and Euro have it coming right over my house in Eastern Orange County and yet the liquor store was still empty this morning

Empty of people or liquor?

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like he’s going to be battling about 20kts of shear between now and Florida coast

[NDG]

Last night's Euro did a very good job of showing Isaias deep convection wine down this morning, it forecasts it to return later today to later collapse and so on while tracks along the FL coast through Sunday.

https://i.imgur.com/nMWYaVy.gif

I think I need to wine down this morning.

Me too, but it I'm afraid it will knock me out for the rest of the day and not wake up until Monday morning after the storm is gone, been barely getting any sleep the last few days

[cp79]

geeez, both of the latest models for GFS and Euro have it coming right over my house in Eastern Orange County and yet the liquor store was still empty this morning

It’s possible the center may end up going over your house tomorrow and you could have sunny conditions. You just don’t want to be stuck about 100 miles to the east of this storm. Not sure it will get that far inland though.

[DestinHurricane]

Low level clouds FLYING WNW in Boca.

[robbielyn]

Looks like he’s going to be battling about 20kts of shear between now and Florida coast

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Levi said the sheer may overestimated because of stormed induced sheer

[cp79]

Looks like he’s going to be battling about 20kts of shear between now and Florida coast

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The meteorologist here in Tampa basically said we have nothing to worry about because even if he does try and get close here, heavy winds will shear it off and keep the bad stuff from coming in. So the further west the center tries to go from here on out, the harder it’s going to be for the center to stay with the storms.