ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Something may have shifted here

[jlauderdal]

Na... the west side of this is lacking to much dry air and shear. Rainy Sunday

there is plenty of low level moisture with the addition of daytime heating to make thunderstorms, wont take much sun to get there

Sheared cases like this are always tricky.

just to clarify, any afternoon storms in SE Florida would be an indirect result of the TS

[Weatherboy1]

Well despite almost being in the “eyewall” here in Jupiter, happy to report wind and rain not much to write home about at all. Could’ve been a lot worse but shear and dry air did their thing!

[StormingB81]

It’s alive, it’s dead, it’s decoupled lol does this thing know what it wants to do lol either or I’ll still watch from the coast of Brevard until it passes. Never trust a storm until it passes

[wxman57]

Something may have shifted here

https://i.imgur.com/DKdXTuI.png

That's the center - about 25 miles east of Palm Beach, which is reporting NE winds 24 kts gusting 35 kts.

[jlauderdal]

Well despite almost being in the “eyewall” here in Jupiter, happy to report wind and rain not much to write home about at all. Could’ve been a lot worse but shear and dry air did their thing!

don't let your guard down , convection on the increase

[GCANE]

there is plenty of low level moisture with the addition of daytime heating to make thunderstorms, wont take much sun to get there

Sheared cases like this are always tricky.

just to clarify, any afternoon storms in SE Florida would be an indirect result of the TS

Yesterday, that UL Vort was pretty much over the entire state.
Pushing down air and keeping a lid on lift.
That was the reason convection was sparse.
Not so today.
Good portion of the state is currently under CIN (Convection Inhibition) due to boundary-layer inversion.
Should lift out later in the morning as the sun heats the surface. See what happens then.

[toad strangler]

Florida’s 15 year old streak of no east coast HURRICANE landfall lives on!

tick, tick, tick, tick.......

[jconsor]

Good catch, NDG!

Because of that northward jog/reformation into the western edge of the burst of deep convection, Isaias's center at 12z is likely to end up about 30 mi east of the 12 hour NHC forecast from 0z. If this tendency to remain further east and stay just off the central/NE FL coast continues (and I believe it will, based on recent model trends), it strongly increases the risk of a period of intensification prior to NC/SC landfall.

Given the trends I have seen, I believe a cat 1 landfall is more likely than not in NC/SC. Perhaps a lower-end Cat 2 if it is able to undergo RI, but I consider that a low-probability scenario at this point (about 10%). IMHO, a landfall intensity of higher end cat 1 or higher (e.g ~75 kt or higher) is most likely if Isaias stays at or east of about 80.3W - in other words, significantly enough off the NE FL coast to be better able to take advantage of the moistening atmosphere and very warm waters. Wouldn't be surprised to see isolated gusts to 100 mph in exposed coastal areas in the NE quadrant! (Most likely between Myrtle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC

Hard to believe for you in SE FL that there's a storm just a few miles offshore, but due to the shear the worst of the wx is well offshore.

The center is still down by Broward?!
Holy moley this thing is crawling. One thing that we can be fortunate is that this storm formed now rather than in late August or September...feel like this would have been a major problem if it were on Labor Day when conditions are typically ideal for eastern approaching storms. But this is not over yet, especially for points north!

ESE of West Palm now, It did a nice jog to the NNE when the convection popped again.

https://i.imgur.com/rBaSCny.jpg

[Do_For_Love]

It looks like the convection is trying to build to Florida and then being pushed back by the shear. Almost like there's a shield over the state or something. Levi said on his video last night though that the convection on the west side could burst sporadically throughout the day, so I personally wouldn't assume the all clear if I lived there. I'm also concerned about how the Bahamas are handling this, they must be getting a lot of water and I'm not sure they fully recovered from Dorian.

I just had a friend decide to go to the DE beaches when Isaias is gonna be passing over us. I advised against it but no avail. Can't imagine it's gonna be much fun down there on Tuesday or Wednesday, lol...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[jlauderdal]

Sheared cases like this are always tricky.

just to clarify, any afternoon storms in SE Florida would be an indirect result of the TS

Yesterday, that UL Vort was pretty much over the entire state.
Pushing down air and keeping a lid on lift.
That was the reason convection was sparse.
Not so today.
Good portion of the state is currently under CIN (Convection Inhibition) due to boundary-layer inversion.
Should lift out later in the morning as the sun heats the surface. See what happens then.

https://i.imgur.com/zcjEdix.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xHhlzZq.gif

Yep, the parameters look much better today, 1-2 hours of sun should enough and then drive the convection NW to SE...looks good the next couple of days in the wake of the system

[GCANE]

I dunno.
Given that helicity signature and the movement on radar, I may vote red soon.
Miss Piggy has the last word.

[CronkPSU]

if I didn't have access to recon and NHC, I would swear this was moving almost due west based on this satellite loop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[ronjon]

Pretty gusty winds at Lake Worth Pier. 30-40 kts.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=lkwf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

[tailgater]

if I didn't have access to recon and NHC, I would swear this was moving almost due west based on this satellite loop

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Clearly this storm is reforming in the heavier convection to the east and it probably won’t be the last time.

[GCANE]

Definitely some glitches in pressure readings from Miss Piggy.

[drezee]

Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure is way off. Everyone take a breath...drops only until calibrated

[ronjon]

I wouldn't discount not seeing some rough weather today along the coast. The storm looks better organization wise this am than anytime in the last 24 hours. The dry air and persistent westerly shear may let up slightly and with the low level center creeping even closer to the coast or actually partially inland, convection could easily wrap and build today west of the center.

[skillz305]

Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure is way off. Everyone take a breath...drops only until callobratted

In an amateur hurricane tracking language for us please? i try to understand all the meanings etc

[GCANE]

Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure is way off. Everyone take a breath...drops only until callobratted

In an amateur hurricane tracking language for us please? i try to understand all the meanings etc

Miss Piggy is showing very erratic surface pressure readings.
The only reliable reading will be from a dropsonde when they release it in the core.