ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

If you want to really experience how hideous this storms presentation looks, go look at a birds eye level satellite view. If I didn't know any better there looks like just an ordinary small bank of clouds in the area.

[Frank P]

Last couple of frames of the vis sat loops looks almost west, or just north of it... things might change once the core, albeit in a much more weaken state than last night, is over the Gulf Stream... But he’s still ugly to look at.. I never trust them to do what we say or think they are going to do..

[Javlin]

Outflow is definitely taking out that western dry slot.
CAPE increasing in the dry slot from 500 to now 1000.

Outflow is pretty much in all radial directions.

Also CAPE increasing across northern FL. Now up to 3500.

Isaias could hit the water running, especially if an anticyclone quickly forms over this.
Chances looking better that it will.

Models are about to be way off. center moving wnw..

Low level cloud deck beginning to really thicken.. new convective burst coming soon

https://i.ibb.co/qJ8c4ZM/444455577788990000.gif

Aric and GCane looking at the visible to the N the clouds are flat and looking a WNW like a ridge is there? and the speed looks better than 10knots?Their is a slight wobble N in the last frame.

[supercane4867]

HWRF nailed it a couple of days ago. Basically a naked swirl making landfall in Florida.

[CFLHurricane]

All the posters championing the little storm that could are quite endearing. I just don’t see Isaias getting dressed in time for the ball.

[TheStormExpert]

Isaias looks to be fallen apart at least for the time being. Definitely has no chance at wining a hurricane beauty pageant!

[CronkPSU]

geeez, both of the latest models for GFS and Euro have it coming right over my house in Eastern Orange County and yet the liquor store was still empty this morning

Empty of people or liquor?

LOL people...but hey this is Florida, we are always well stocked, maybe everyone still has all their covid liquor stashes still fully stocked up lol

[MGC]

Well, Isaias got sentenced to the guillotine this morning. His body is running around off the island of Andros now. Will this zombie come back to life?

Storm better start taking a more northerly track soon.....South Florida is waiting with open arms.....MGC

[gatorcane]

Looks WNW to me crossing Andros, about ready to emerge back over water:

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... &y=924.875

[GCANE]

Head-on convergence here.
Likely area for towers to fire up.

[CourierPR]

Last couple of frames of the vis sat loops looks almost west, or just north of it... things might change once the core, albeit in a much more weaken state than last night, is over the Gulf Stream... But he’s still ugly to look at.. I never trust them to do what we say or think they are going to do..

I think I will employ the Eyeball Model from this point on because it sure looks to be moving between W and WNW.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like he’s going to be battling about 20kts of shear between now and Florida coast

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Levi said the sheer may overestimated because of stormed induced sheer

That’s definitely a real possibility

[supercane4867]

When did SFL become Hawaii? They got the same hurricane repellent which have been very effective.

[GCANE]

Head-on convergence here.
Likely area for towers to fire up.

https://i.imgur.com/e5uljia.png

Also, looked like the track was due West going across the island.

[wxman57]

I'll remind you all that small storms like Isaias can weaken quickly and strengthen just as quickly. Pay attention on the coast of Florida.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Its been WNW for a while now. Still no signs of the more Northerly turn. I would expect to see it soon.

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[StormingB81]

Looks like Florida’s east coast is going to luck out again. How many times can this luck happen?

[CronkPSU]

Looks like Florida’s east coast is going to luck out again. How many times can this luck happen?

until it still looks terrible after crossing the gulf stream and has gone north to us, little early to be calling us lucky

[crimi481]

Miami and Keys need to keep eye open. Lots warm water to come. Thumb ridge- weakened state of storm should send it more west.
I know nothing...but ts fun trying.

[PandaCitrus]

I'll remind you all that small storms like Isaias can weaken quickly and strengthen just as quickly. Pay attention on the coast of Florida.

This is very true. Storms like Charley and Michael come to mind that ramped up quickly. Things are looking good right now but nobody should be throwing any parties or declaring it dead until it passes their latitude. Crazy things have happened to storms passing the gulf stream in the past.