ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4561 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:19 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Tons of lightning in this thing



I thought that there was usually no lightning in a warm core system.


Though research is being done, it is still not well understood why some have a lot at the core and some very little.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4562 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:26 pm

:eek: :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4563 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:30 pm

Looks like outflow is starting to become established. Not going to write if off yet. I think another pulse of convection is likely before tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4564 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:32 pm

SFLcane wrote::eek: :eek:

https://iili.io/dYcxpe.png

Wait, what...
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4565 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:33 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
MarioProtVI wrote:Outflow boundaries getting spat out again due to collapse of convection and downdrafts. Zero chance of becoming a hurricane again.


I agree, I think this is done....I mean, it's showing absolutely zero signs or organizing, and it's not as if conditions are all of the sudden going to get great for it. I think 65 mph is as strong as it will get it. It's been fun, BUT frustrating to track though...Learned that even though it's 2020, it doesn't mean that a system can magically overcome shear and dry air.......

I agree with a couple of other folks that said if this was late August/September, we'd probably be looking at a cat 3/cat 4 hurricane, because all of that dry air wouldn't be out there...


Next peak was progged to be about 4am EDT. It's on the way.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4566 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:39 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote::eek: :eek:

https://iili.io/dYcxpe.png

Wait, what...


That’s what I am saying...It’s been dead calm outside. Still trying to find out the time table on TS winds commencing.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4567 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:41 pm

I'd be pretty surprised if recon found a coupled system when they investigate shortly.

Another burst of convection is trying to make it to the low level center, but my guess is that it's still southwest of this new convection.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4568 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:44 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:I'd be pretty surprised if recon found a coupled system when they investigate shortly.

Another burst of convection is trying to make it to the low level center, but my guess is that it's still southwest of this new convection.


I agree with that. Tops have been getting blown off to the ENE-NE all day. That's the way it went. Center might make it to shore, but I still think the bulk of the heaviest weather will mostly stay offshore for the next day and a half or so.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4569 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:57 pm

whoa look at the MLC blob sprint back to the southwest the last few frames, is it stacking back up???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4570 Postby birddogsc » Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:59 pm

CronkPSU wrote:whoa look at the MLC blob sprint back to the southwest the last few frams, is is stacking back up???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir


That's crazy. I've never seen anything like that before! :eek:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4571 Postby xironman » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:06 am

Looks like most of the mid level dry air has been eroded

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4572 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:07 am

birddogsc wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:whoa look at the MLC blob sprint back to the southwest the last few frams, is is stacking back up???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir


That's crazy. I've never seen anything like that before! :eek:


anyone know how to save that loop and post it? I tried to save image and post it to imgur but just comes up as the last frame
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4573 Postby skillz305 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:13 am

CronkPSU wrote:
birddogsc wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:whoa look at the MLC blob sprint back to the southwest the last few frams, is is stacking back up???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir


That's crazy. I've never seen anything like that before! :eek:


anyone know how to save that loop and post it? I tried to save image and post it to imgur but just comes up as the last frame


Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4574 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:14 am

skillz305 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
birddogsc wrote:
That's crazy. I've never seen anything like that before! :eek:


anyone know how to save that loop and post it? I tried to save image and post it to imgur but just comes up as the last frame


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202008020352.gif


thank you! wanted others to see it when they got up later!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4575 Postby dkommers » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:15 am

The center of circulation is getting much better defined the past 30 minutes. You can actually see the bands wrapping all the way around on radar. The MLC still looks to be about 20 miles off to the NNE. But it looks much healthier. https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4576 Postby JPmia » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:17 am

dkommers wrote:The center of circulation is getting much better defined the past 30 minutes. You can actually see the bands wrapping all the way around on radar. The MLC still looks to be about 20 miles off to the NNE. But it looks much healthier. https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions


could this be the anticipated warm Gulf Stream waters influence?
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4577 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:18 am

PTC #9 Advisory #1....Not exactly the worst initial track forecast I've ever seen... :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4578 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:21 am

Recon will also be important to see if there are any short-term deviations from guidance and the NHC track. Not only is this important for Florida impacts, but a storm offshore would result in a stronger storm farther north into the Carolinas.

Shear vectors will be much better aligned north of central Florida, and Isaias should be close to an area of favorable upper level divergence due to the jet streak to its northwest. That's why all global guidance and the hurricane models show deepening north of the Space Coast, with the HWRF/HMON now showing a hurricane at landfall on the NC/SC border.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4579 Postby panamatropicwatch » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:31 am

Been awhile since we have seen the convection filling in from the south and west.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions/south-florida/large-scale-loop
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4580 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:35 am

Appears a tad northeast of where the GFS had the forecast low position at 6z. GFS was 25.6 N/79.3 W, and the recon found the low level center on the southwest edge of the convection at 25.8 N/ 79.1 W.
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