ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Steve]

Here are a few interesting plots that are out there this morning.

GFS Para valid 2am Monday morning


GFS Para valid 8pm Tuesday night


GFS Tomorrow night at 8pm


ICON valid 2am Tuesday morning

[Steve]

Icon 2am Wednesday morning


NAM 6pm tomorrow night


HRRR 3pm today

[Steve]

Here are a couple more:

HWRF 11am Tuesday


HMON 11am Tuesday

[StormingB81]

HRRR 3pm today
https://i.imgur.com/3Hc5S1B.png

Anyone want to bet against me that this doesn’t happen lol I’d be shocked if anything close to this happened

[shiny-pebble]

HRRR 3pm today
https://i.imgur.com/3Hc5S1B.png

Anyone want to bet against me that this doesn’t happen lol I’d be shocked if anything close to this happened

It nailed last night I would nit be surprised if it nails today

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[Jr0d]

HRRR 3pm today
https://i.imgur.com/3Hc5S1B.png

Anyone want to bet against me that this doesn’t happen lol I’d be shocked if anything close to this happened

Not that far off the current IR satellite.

A few models are still showing some strengthening as Isaias pulls north of Central Florida. I shoukd be sleeping but eagerly waiting more model data.

[Steve]

HRRR 3pm today
https://i.imgur.com/3Hc5S1B.png

Anyone want to bet against me that this doesn’t happen lol I’d be shocked if anything close to this happened

It's going to burst and burst again until it's farther north. Whether or not that means the heaviest rainfall stays offshore or not remains to be seen.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[MJGarrison]

Icon 2am Wednesday morning


NAM 6pm tomorrow night


HRRR 3pm today

These simulated IR posts seem to be right on, there’s just not much rain under them.


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[TheStormExpert]

The Carolinas look to have something more serious than Florida on their hands just looking over the models, likely will be a strong maybe more organized TS or hurricane for them.

[Steve]

Yeah MJ, I agree. I think there's a lot of rain offshore*. And that's what's so cool about this system. We'll be able to watch it come up and transition the weather to the north and west sides of the system as the approaching trough drawing it north gets closer to the coast.

* Scroll up toward Freeport
https://weather.com/weather/radar/inter ... .00,-77.55

And if you run future cast, you will see how close the inner core gets to Vero Beach and Palm Bay on the radar simulation. Current conditions in Freeport are 81 degrees and South winds at 28mph which would be about right with the center to the wnw of there. Also, look at the inflow cutting across west-east down in Palm Beach County. Could be some training. Watch out for wayward alligators if so.

[MJGarrison]

Yeah MJ, I agree. I think there's a lot of rain offshore*. And that's what's so cool about this system. We'll be able to watch it come up and transition the weather to the north and west sides of the system as the approaching trough drawing it north gets closer to the coast.

* Scroll up toward Freeport
https://weather.com/weather/radar/inter ... .00,-77.55

And if you run future cast, you will see how close the inner core gets to Vero Beach and Palm Bay on the radar simulation. Current conditions in Freeport are 81 degrees and South winds at 28mph which would be about right with the center to the wnw of there. Also, look at the inflow cutting across west-east down in Palm Beach County. Could be some training. Watch out for wayward alligators if so.

I just watched what you suggested, Steve, and that is quite the projected increase in thunderstorms and banding for the afternoon.


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[Steve]

Yeah. Radar models are notoriously unpredictable. The VIPIR model at Fox 8 in New Orleans hit Cindy '05 pretty well. But it's bombed on most of the other ones I've watched their coverage of. So I don't trust them (radar derived models, I do trust Fox 8). But the way that weather.com radar model takes us out to almost 5pm EDT, it shows the center almost coalescing over Port St. Lucie area before pinballing back offshore. I don't know what's going to happen, but that's what we get to measure it by this afternoon. A dice roll IMHO with radar model depictions.

[Steve]

Here's another Benchmark to see how it does. 1:18pm EDT

Looks like the low level center with the midlevel energy remaining more offshore for then. This is in 2 hours and 10 minutes, so we'll see.

[ColdMiser123]

12z GFS ticks east and stronger, looks like it's showing a minimal Category 1 landall near Wilmington now. Jet streak dynamics should allow the storm to be relatively strong as it moves inland in a couple days.

[Steve]

12z GFS ticks east and stronger, looks like it's showing a minimal Category 1 landall near Wilmington now. Jet streak dynamics should allow the storm to be relatively strong as it moves inland in a couple days.

Agreed on the relative strength. Fortunately it's not going to take its time coming up and shouldn't result in widespread flooding but more likely would bring localized flooding to low-lying areas, creeks and streams.

[ColdMiser123]

12z GFS ticks east and stronger, looks like it's showing a minimal Category 1 landall near Wilmington now. Jet streak dynamics should allow the storm to be relatively strong as it moves inland in a couple days.

Agreed on the relative strength. Fortunately it's not going to take its time coming up and shouldn't result in widespread flooding but more likely would bring localized flooding to low-lying areas, creeks and streams.

New Euro agrees and has a 65-70 KT landfall just west of Wilmington close to the NC/SC border. I would expect intensity to be pretty level today with any increases to happen throughout tomorrow.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS was too weak with this and still too far west, I expect the 0zGFS to shift more East and make landfall between Cape Lookout to surf city

[xironman]

HMON close to cat 2 at landfall

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1290247704400953344

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1290253687630098432