ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2201 Postby Jevo » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:52 pm

Motion has been 273 for the last hour.. just a stair step, but each one of those gets ya closer to US mainland and could be an indicator of the stronger than forecasted ridge that is showing up in 18/0z models.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2202 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 pm

STRiZZY wrote:
tolakram wrote:Seriously people, this is the models thread and I'm going to be very honest as it pertains to THIS THREAD.

I don't care where you think it's going, I don't care about your wild guess about what the models will do.

If these model threads constantly devolve into silly banter then we can scrap them and keep everything in the discussion thread.

I hope I made my frustration perfectly clear.


I hear you on the off topic subjects but if we can't talk about what we think the models are going to do then what discussion about the models is acceptable? Strictly model output?


You can discuss model runs all you want.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2203 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:03 pm

toad strangler wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:NAM 32k has landfall in Melbourne?



Looks like Vero Beach or Sebastian just south of Melbourne. If that's actually landfall. Kinda half and half.


Looks like a brush on 3km. Could be a later issue for South Carolina unless it decides to stay offshore. But if there is still closer to a north component than NNE, it would have to parallel and probably would hit in southern NC based on the 3km NAM.

12km does go inland, but you have to understand the center at that resolution jumps and isn't a true center. It does landfall in South Carolina but NAM 12km doesn't really have it strengthening which is odd for any storm coming up north in those waters this time of year. I didn't look at 500mb, but I'm assuming the SW flow ahead of the trough to the west would be the inhibitor

32km also goes inland in FL for a little while (though the center jumps there too) before landfalling in southern South Carolina.

So to me, NAM's say watch out Brevard County and up and then maybe a landfall in South Carolina Monday Night.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2204 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:08 pm

ICON is rolling in and only scraping the coast through 39 hours (valid Sunday 11:00am)

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2205 Postby caneseddy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:10 pm

Steve wrote:ICON is rolling in and only scraping the coast through 39 hours (valid Sunday 11:00am)

https://i.imgur.com/wR2dV1g.png


How reliable is this model? I remember last year it kept wanting to push Dorian into South Florida for like 3 whole days, so that's my only experience with it.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2206 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:11 pm

ICON with a big shift east.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2207 Postby Kat5 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:13 pm

Steve wrote:ICON is rolling in and only scraping the coast through 39 hours (valid Sunday 11:00am)

https://i.imgur.com/wR2dV1g.png


Looks further East compared to the 18z. It’s very telling sign about the GFS and potentially the Euro might start an eastward adjustment away from the FL coastline. The models were overdoing the ridge and fortunately now with NOAA’s flight data we will truly get to see the real trend.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2208 Postby STRiZZY » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:14 pm

caneseddy wrote:
Steve wrote:ICON is rolling in and only scraping the coast through 39 hours (valid Sunday 11:00am)

https://i.imgur.com/wR2dV1g.png


How reliable is this model? I remember last year it kept wanting to push Dorian into South Florida for like 3 whole days, so that's my only experience with it.


Correct, it was the last model to hold onto a FL landfall. Not sure on it's overall accuracy score each year. I want to say it's a decent model. Not the greatest not the worst.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2209 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:17 pm

caneseddy wrote:
Steve wrote:ICON is rolling in and only scraping the coast through 39 hours (valid Sunday 11:00am)

https://i.imgur.com/wR2dV1g.png


How reliable is this model? I remember last year it kept wanting to push Dorian into South Florida for like 3 whole days, so that's my only experience with it.


It's a mixed bag. Sometimes it telegraphs areas of genesis pretty well and will stick with those areas and be right. It has had some success with a few of the earlier storms this year so far. I'd attribute that to a tighter resolution for the output you get on TT. But for overall track, it's not usually in the top few. But here's the deal. We're now talking about 2-3 day period. Though once every couple of seasons the models will still miss a track in that short of a time-frame. We'll see if it hits South Carolina though.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2210 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:18 pm

We talked last night in chat about the NAVGEM and while track is generally bad, it seems to pick up on shifts first. Maybe it's not the model but simply the time it runs? NAVGEM went west last night.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2211 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:20 pm

tolakram wrote:We talked last night in chat about the NAVGEM and while track is generally bad, it seems to pick up on shifts first. Maybe it's not the model but simply the time it runs? NAVGEM went west last night.

I think 0z has the new data.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2212 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:22 pm

Here's ICON at 60 hours approaching 30N offshore - but close. It's deepening. This is a departure from the NAMs unless it stays around 990mb at that resolution.

Image

Surely that trough has to be having an influence. Let's run it at 500mb.

Yeah, it's got a really cool setup. The amplification of the shortwave is kind of stuck in the east while high pressure in the Atlantic keeps pulsing stronger. That should mean it will end up hitting in South Carolina. We have to wait for a few more plots.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0100&fh=60
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2213 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:27 pm

Here is 75 hours at the SC Coast. 989 so definitely strong but not appreciably strengthening since the 10mb drop coming up.
Image

Looks like a decent Cat 1-ish before it starts moving off to the NE.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2214 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:28 pm

ICON during the past few days has been very persistent in inconsistency, so in another words it has been all over the place on each run 8-)
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2215 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:30 pm

NDG wrote:ICON during the past few days has been very persistent in inconsistency, so in another words it has been all over the place on each run 8-)

yeah. i wouldn't be shocked if the gfs and cmc come east tonight though.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2216 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:31 pm

tolakram wrote:We talked last night in chat about the NAVGEM and while track is generally bad, it seems to pick up on shifts first. Maybe it's not the model but simply the time it runs? NAVGEM went west last night.


NAVGEM has been another one that has swung 100-150 miles on each direction from run to run, very inconsistent.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2217 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:34 pm

The first plot of the 0z GFS is already southwest of the 18z...
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2218 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:34 pm

Take away from the ICON (so far) is that it will be a close call for Florida - likely to stay offshore, but possibly some close inner-core and for sure bands out front that could spawn severe weather and tornadoes. Hurricane conditions in South Carolina and across eastern North Carolina.

Then it's like a doomsday scenario storm but just not strong enough. Check it out. If that was a Cat 4/5, that's a lot of people wrecked along the way. Everybody north of there gets it too. The track stays fairly far west inland - across DC, Philly, eastern NY State and then up VT/NH and Maine and then eastern Canada. Haha. You don't want to see that with a stronger system, though this could certainly knock power out for a lot of people and rain a few inches all along the east coast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0100&fh=66
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2219 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:34 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:The first plot of the 0z GFS is already south of the 18z...

weaker ridge though. east shift is likely i feel like.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Models

#2220 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:35 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:The first plot of the 0z GFS is already south of the 18z...

weaker ridge though. east shift is likely i feel like.


Also slower
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