ATL: ISAIAS - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 79.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick
Island Delaware, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A
Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
from Smith Point southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required tonight or early Monday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.5
North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east
coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore
of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move
inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday
night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next
36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when
it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North
Carolina Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A 51 mph (82 km/h) wind gust was recently
measured at NOAA buoy 41009, just off the coast of Cape Canaveral.
NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of
Cape Canaveral reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a
wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina Monday night and early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday
night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 4
inches.

Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.
Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians
and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening on Monday, and across
eastern North Carolina Monday evening and overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Isais has not become better organized on satellite and radar imagery
at this time. The cyclone continues to produce vigorous deep
convection but this convection continues to be displaced to the
northeast of the center, and convective banding features are
ill-defined. Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations show that the
central pressure has not fallen since earlier today, and
flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind measurements from the
aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 60 kt. Although
Isais will be moving through an environment of fairly strong
southwesterly shear during the next day or so, it will also be
traversing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream with its high oceanic
heat content. The latter factor could result in the system becoming
a hurricane near landfall. The official forecast is close to the
intensity consensus, which keeps Isaias just below hurricane
strength.

It should be emphasized that there is little difference between a
strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane, in terms of
impacts.

After landfall, the interaction with land and strong shear should
result in steady weakening. Based on the global models, the
cyclone is likely to become an extratropical cyclone after it moves
into Canada and dissipate over the north Atlantic shortly
thereafter.

The motion continues to be slightly west of due north or 345/8 kt.
There has been no significant change to the track forecast
reasoning. Over the next couple of days, Isaias is expected to
accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of a large 500 mb
trough over the eastern United States and then turn northeastward
in 3 to 4 days as it moves through the mid-latitude westerlies.
The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and
similar to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. This is
between the GFS, which shows a slightly faster motion and the ECMWF,
which is slightly slower.


Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to
Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent
waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the
North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to Maryland through
early Tuesday. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are
likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch
area.

3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.

4. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread northward
across the remainder of the U.S east coast on Tuesday and early
Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect through Long Island
Sound and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 28.5N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 40.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 50.0N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0000Z 55.5N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to west
of Watch Hill Rhode Island, including the Tidal Potomac south of
Cobb Island, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, Delaware Bay,
Long Island, and Long Island sound.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Stonington,
Maine, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the
Flagler/Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River
South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode
Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
* Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 79.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward
the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward
speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia
coast through this morning. The center of Isaias will then
approach the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern
North Carolina within the hurricane warning area later today. The
center will then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight and
move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into
the northeastern United States by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is
forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast
of northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight.
Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the
Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight
and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound,
Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through
Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in New England beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected
along and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2
inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias
across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the
southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg



Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Isaias continues to produce an area of vigorous convection near and
to the northeast of its low-level center. Overnight radar data from
Melbourne and Jacksonville have shown a transient mid-level eye
feature that is located northeast of the low-level center. The
earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew near that
feature before departing the storm and found 700-mb flight-level
winds of 71 kt, with the highest SFMR winds still around 60 kt,
which is the basis for the initial wind speed for this advisory.
An Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be
investigating Isaias within the next several hours.

The vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Isaias is forecast
to abate slightly today as the storm turns north-northeastward. All
of the intensity models shows some slight strengthening during the
next 12 hours, and the global models also indicate some deepening.
As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Isaias to
regain hurricane status before the system moves over the coast of
the Carolinas. The new intensity forecast has necessitated
the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coasts of
northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. After
landfall, Isaias is forecast to gradually weaken, but given the fast
forward motion of the storm, strong winds are expected to spread
northward along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United
States. The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.

Isaias is moving northward or 355/8 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains the same as before. The tropical storm is
expected to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward ahead
of a large mid-level trough over the eastern United States during
the next couple of days. The dynamical models are in good agreement
except for some slight differences in the forward speed of Isaias.
The NHC track forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids,
which have once again trended slightly faster.


Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina.
Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina
coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it
reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern
North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected in the
Hurricane Warning by this evening. Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to portions of
southern New England through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible across other portions of New England within
the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Wednesday. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

4. Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias
across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor
to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 29.7N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 34.8N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 39.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 44.4N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1800Z 48.6N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/0600Z 52.0N 65.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS PASSING WELL OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 80.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River
South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode
Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
* Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 80.1
West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in
forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast
through this morning. The center of Isaias will then approach the
coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina
within the hurricane warning area later today. The center will then
move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the
coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the
northeastern United States by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is
forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of
northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Slow
weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas
and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past hour a wind gust to 40 mph (65
km/h) was observed at the St, Augustine Pier, Florida, and a
sustained wind of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h)
were measured by a Weatherflow station at the Jacksonville Beach
Pier, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound,
Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through
Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in New England beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected
along and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2
inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias
across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the
southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 80.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, and
for the North Carolina Outer Banks form Oregon Inlet to the North
Carolina/Virginia border.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to the mouth
of the Merrimack River, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and
Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay and
the Tidal Potomac River north of Cobb Island has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Eastport
Maine.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha
Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the Mouth of the Merrimack
River
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Merrimack River to Eastport Maine

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 80.1
West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is expected
by this late afternoon or early evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast
through this afternoon. The center of Isaias will then approach the
coasts of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina
within the hurricane warning area this evening. The center will
then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along
the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the
northeastern United States Tuesday night.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast this
afternoon, and Isaias is expected to regain hurricane strength just
before it reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina or
southern North Carolina tonight. Only slow weakening is anticipated
after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the
U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound GA to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.

Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to
hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and
power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England late Tuesday and are possible along the northern New
England coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will result in flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the
East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern
Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Isaias continues to undergo strong bursting and then weakening
convective phases, with the cyclone currently in the latter mode.
Satellite and radar data indicate that Isaias' convective
organization has become a little disheveled since the previous
advisory, but this is to be expected since the tropical cyclone
has been undergoing bursting periods about every 8 hours or so
beginning overnight around 0600-0900Z. Thus, the system is due for
another re-organization phase shortly if it holds true to form.
That may already be underway based on recent radar and recon data
showing a slight eastward shift in the center position. The highest
700-mb flight-level wind observed has been 63 kt, which reduces to
about a 57-kt surface wind. Jacksonville Doppler radar velocities
north and north-northwest of the center have been around 60 kt at
9,000 ft, which equals about 54 kt surface winds. The initial
intensity will be held at 60 kt, perhaps a little generously, for
this advisory despite the recent rise in the central pressure to
around 998 mb.

Isaias is still moving northward but a little faster at 360/11 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains essentially the same as the
previous few advisories, with Isaias expected to gradually turn
toward the north-northeast later today and begin to accelerate by
this evening. The latest NHC model guidance is more tightly packed
about the previous advisory track, so only minor tweaks were
required. The new NHC track forecast lies very close to a blend of
the multi-model consensus aids TVCA, GFEX, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Current westerly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt is expected to
decrease somewhat during the next 12 h and also become more
southwesterly, which will be in better alignment with Isaias'
forward motion vector. The decrease in the shear should result in
less tilt to the cyclone, allowing Isaias to strengthen and regain
hurricane status just before making landfall, and most of the
intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt system at that time. After
landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to
interaction with an unusually strong winter-type jetstream that will
be possessing winds of 100-120 kt. Expected strong baroclinic
forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very
strong wind gusts along the Mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. As a
result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the
standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone
is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada
in 3-4 days.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast in the
Storm Surge Warning area. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches
the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane
Warning area by this evening. Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power outages.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England
on late Tuesday and are possible along the northern New England
coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

4. Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the
East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
Mid-Atlantic.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 30.7N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 33.1N 79.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 37.2N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 46.7N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 50.2N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 53.5N 64.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, and
for the North Carolina Outer Banks form Oregon Inlet to the North
Carolina/Virginia border.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to the mouth
of the Merrimack River, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and
Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay and
the Tidal Potomac River north of Cobb Island has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Eastport
Maine.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha
Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the Mouth of the Merrimack
River
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Merrimack River to Eastport Maine

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.0
West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn
toward the north-northeast along with a slight increase in forward
speed is expected by early this evening, followed by a faster
motion tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast through this
afternoon. The center of Isaias will then approach the coasts of
northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the
hurricane warning area this evening. The center will then move
inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the coast
of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast this
afternoon or early evening, and Isaias is expected to regain
hurricane strength just before the cyclone reaches the coast of
northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Only
slow weakening is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the
Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a wind gust to 40 mph (65
km/h) occurred at Folly Island Pier, South Carolina, and at COMRP
buoy 41033 located just offshore Fripp Island, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent reports from
the aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Altamaha Sound GA to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.

Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to
hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and
power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England late Tuesday and are possible along the northern New
England coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will result in flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the
East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern
Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to
Stonington Maine.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Savannah River has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.0 North,
longitude 79.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by a
gradual increase in forward speed is expected through tonight
followed by a further increase in the forward speed on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the coasts of
northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the
hurricane warning area this evening. The center will then move
inland across eastern North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move
along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue
across the northeastern United States Tuesday night.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast later this afternoon or early evening, and
Isaias is expected to make landfall tonight at or near hurricane
strength along the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern
North Carolina. Only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind
of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were measured by
a Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Savannah River to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few
hours.

Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Isaias is undergoing its daily reorganization phase, with a ragged
eye-like feature now showing up in NOAA Doppler weather radars from
Charleston, Wilmington, and Jacksonville. The last Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance flight reported a peak SFMR-derived surface
wind speed of 62 kt in the southwest quadrant around 1630Z while
Isaias was experiencing a center reformation further to the east.
Since then, Doppler velocities of 70-75 kt have been observed
between 10,000-15,000 ft in the northern semicircle, but within
reflectivity regions less than 35 dBZ, which suggests that a the
reduction factor is likely less than the 90-percent value typically
used. Thus the intensity is being held at 60 kt, which means that
Isaias is very near hurricane status. Another Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance will be investigating the cyclone around 0000Z
this evening.

Isaias is now moving north-northeastward 015/14 kt. The new NHC
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Isaias continuing
to gradually accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward for
the next 36 hours ahead of a powerful deep-layer trough and
associated cold front. The cyclone should make landfall later this
evening near the South Carolina-North Carolina border, and then
accelerate north-northeastward at 25-30 kt across eastern North
Carolina early Tuesday, eastern Virginia and the Delmarva peninsula
Tuesday afternoon, and into New England Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is just an update and
extension of the previous advisory track, and lies very close to a
blend of the tightly packed multi-model consensus aids TVCA, GFEX,
TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Satellite animation and special 1800Z upper-air soundings indicate
that the vertical shear across Isaias has weakened and has also
become more southwesterly, which better aligns with the forecast
track. Given this and the improved structure of the system, Isaias
is still expected to strengthen and regain hurricane status before
making landfall, and most of the intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt
system at that time. It should be emphasized that there is little
difference between a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane
in terms of impacts.

After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to
interaction with an unusually strong 100-120 kt jetstream. The
expected strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation
intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the
mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48
h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the
Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed
by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including
portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it
reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina in a few hours, and hurricane conditions are expected in
the Hurricane Warning area this evening.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, on Tuesday,
which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread across New England late Tuesday
into early Wednesday.

4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-
responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor
river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 32.0N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 34.7N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 39.3N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 44.5N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 48.8N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/0600Z 52.0N 67.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z 54.3N 63.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning south of Folly Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Folly Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 79.0 West.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),
and this general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in
the forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will approach the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and
southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area during the
next few hours. The center will then move inland across eastern
North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to ear
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening
is possible before landfall. After landfall, only gradual weakening
is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and
moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (96 km/h), and sustained tropical-storm-force winds have
been reported along the South Carolina coast between Charleston and
Georgetown.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and buoy data is 988
mb (29.18 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported a minimum
pressure of 988.9 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Folly Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Savannah River to Folly Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few
hours.

Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
900 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler radars indicate that the maximum sustained winds associated
with Hurricane Isaias have increased to 85 mph (135 km/h) with
higher gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 988 mb
(29.18 inches).

NOAA buoy 41004 recent reported sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h)
and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) in the southwest eyewall of Isaias.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 78.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Ocracoke Inlet North
Carolina to Oregon Inlet North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect north of Stonington Maine
to Eastport Maine.

The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning south of the
South Santee River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 78.5 West. Isaias is
moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this
general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in
the forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will make landfall in southern North Carolina during the
next hour or two, then move across eastern North Carolina for the
rest of the night. The center move near or along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
After landfall, only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A station at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, recently
reported sustained winds of 72 mph (116 km/h) and a wind gust of 93
mph (150 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Edisto Beach to South Santee River SC...1-3 ft

Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet NC...2-4 ft

Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3-5 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the southern
portion of the hurricane warning area in South and North Carolina at
this time, with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore farther
to the north.

Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, later tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane
force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power
outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
Tuesday night and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across eastern North
Carolina tonight, and from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

NWS Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Isaias re-intensified to a
hurricane despite a less than impressive appearance in satellite
imagery. The aircraft reported 117 kt winds at 700 mb to the
east of the center, but these were not mixed to the surface by
the weak convection in that area, as the maximum SFMR winds were 75
kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.

The hurricane is moving 020/19, and a faster forward speed is
expected as the system moves farther into the mid-latitude
southwesterly flow. This should bring the center onshore in
southern North Carolina shortly, followed by a track through the
mid-Atlantic and western New England states Tuesday and Tuesday
night and into southeastern Canada early Wednesday.

Interaction with a strong jet stream suggests that Isaias should
weaken more slowly than normal as it moves through the eastern
United States, and this should produce very strong wind gusts along
the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at
24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the
Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed
by a larger extratropical low over Canada in about 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including
portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the southern portion of
the hurricane Warning area and should spread northward through
tonight and early tomorrow morning.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later
tonight and on Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power
outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-
responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 33.8N 78.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 37.0N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 46.8N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/1200Z 52.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).

A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140
km/h).

A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky/Beven

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...1200 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

...EYE OF ISAIAS MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A weather station on Johnny Mercer Pier at Wrightsville Beach,
North Carolina, recently measured sustained winds of 62 mph (100
km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).

A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119
km/h) was recently reported at Wilmington, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS NEARING SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 77.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings have been discontinued for the coast of North
Carolina south of Surf City.

The Storm Surge Watch south of Surf City has also been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located over northeastern North Carolina near latitude 36.3 North,
longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast
near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by some
additional increase in forward speed is expected through today. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will to move into
southeastern Virginia early this morning, near or along the coast of
the mid-Atlantic states today, and across the northeastern United
States into southern Canada tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while Isaias moves
north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today. A faster
rate of weakening is expected to begin tonight, and the system is
forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to
63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported at Duck, North Carolina.
Sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h)
were also reported at Poquoson, Virginia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Little River Inlet SC to Surf City NC...1-2 ft

Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet NC...2-4 ft

Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3-5 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina through the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region
today, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds
could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6
inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding is possible in
D.C., Baltimore, and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95
corridor today. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible
to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are most likely through midday from southeast
Virginia to New Jersey. Tornadoes will remain possible this
afternoon and evening from southeast New York across New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward
along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg




Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Isaias made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, a few
minutes after the previous advisory package was issued. Since
that time, the center of Isaias has been moving quickly
north-northeastward across eastern North Carolina. Now that the
inner core of Isaias has moved inland, the peak surface winds have
decreased despite Doppler radar data still showing an area of
75-85 kt winds aloft. The latest surface observations indicated
that strong winds are occuring over the North Carolina Sounds and
Outer Banks. Based on a blend of the available data, the initial
wind speed is set at 60 kt for this advisory.

As the tropical storm moves northward near the Mid-Atlantic coast,
interaction with a strong jet stream is likely to result in a
slower-than-typical weakening rate. The global model guidance
indicates that Isaias is likely to produce widespread
tropical-storm conditions, with hurricane-force wind gusts possible
along the mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon. As a result,
the gust factor at 12 h has been increased above the standard 20
percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). Isaias is forecast to
weaken more quickly tonight as it moves into eastern Canada and
becomes post-tropical. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low in 2-3 days, if not sooner.

Isaias is moving north-northeastward or 020/24 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to continue accelerating north-northeastward today as it
is embedded in strong south-southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer
trough over the Great Lakes region. After 24 h, the post-tropical
cyclone is expected to decelerate before it is absorbed by the
extratropical low. The updated NHC track forecast is near the
center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

In addition to the storm surge and wind threats, Isaias is expected
to produce heavy rainfall along and just west of the I-95 corridor
today, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of
this area in a high risk for life-threatening flash flooding.
There is also a risk of tornadoes from southeast Virginia to New
Jersey through midday. The risk of tornadoes will spread northward
into southeastern New York this afternoon and across New England by
tonight.


Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
the North Carolina coast, including portions of Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, through
this afternoon, which could cause tree damage and power outages.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across New England
tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias,
will result in flash flooding, some of which may be significant in
North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding is possible in
D.C., Baltimore, and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95
corridor today. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

4. Tornadoes have already occurred over portions of northeastern
North Carolina and southeastern Virginia overnight. The threat of
tornadoes will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast today
and then across New England by tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 36.3N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 40.3N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 45.8N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 50.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0600Z 53.2N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 76.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM SSE OF TAPPAHANNOCK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Neuse River
North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located over southeastern Virginia near latitude 37.7 North,
longitude 76.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast
near 33 mph (54 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by some
additional increase in forward speed is expected through today. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move
near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states today, and move
across the northeastern United States into southern Canada tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while Isaias moves
north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today. A faster
rate of weakening is expected to begin tonight, and the system is
forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Sustained winds of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a gust to
77 mph (124 km/h) were recently reported at Third Island, Virginia,
at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet NC, including the Neuse River...1-2
ft

Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, and Pamlico River...3-5 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from North Carolina through the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region
today, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds
could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6
inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding is possible in
D.C., Baltimore, and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95
corridor today. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible
to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are most likely through midday from southeast
Virginia to New Jersey. Tornadoes will remain possible this
afternoon and evening from southeast New York across New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 900 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
900 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES OCCURRING OVER
EASTERN MARYLAND AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...

A NOAA NOS/COOPS weather station at York River East, Virginia,
recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (94 km/h) and a gust
to 94 mph (150 km/h).

Another NOAA NOS/COOPS weather station at Rappahannock Shoal,
Virginia, recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h)
and a gust to 85 mph (135 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 76.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SSW OF WILDEWOOD MARYLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF ANNAPOLIS MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1000 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES OCCURRING OVER
EASTERN MARYLAND AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...

A Weatherflow weather station at Onacock, Virginia, recently
reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to
70 mph (113 km/h).

Another Weatherflow weather station at Ocean City, Maryland,
recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust
to 61 mph (98 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ANNAPOLIS MARYLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 76.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF FREDERICK MARYLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Duck,
North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 12 to 18 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations
near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Isaias is moving
toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general
motion accompanied by some increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
continue to move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states
today, and move across the northeastern United States into southern
Canada tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while
Isaias moves north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today.
A faster rate of weakening is expected to begin tonight, and the
system is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a sustained wind of 55 mph
(89 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h) were reported by a
Weatherflow site at Ocean City, Maryland. A sustained wind of 45
mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h) were reported at Ocean
City-South Beach, New Jersey.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ocracoke Inlet NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...1-2 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area in the mid-Atlantic states, including
portions of the Chesapeake Bay region today, with wind gusts to
hurricane force possible. These winds could cause significant tree
damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and Northern Mid-Atlantic: Additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially
life-threatening urban flooding remains possible Philadelphia, and
elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today. Scattered
minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northern New Jersey
and southeastern New York, through southern New England, by late
afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue across northern New
England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Doppler radar data from Dover, Delaware (KDOX), and Ft. Dix, New
Jersey (KDIX) this morning continue to indicate 70-80 kt winds
between 4000-7000 ft over the ocean just offshore the Delmarva
peninsula and the southeastern coast of New Jersey, which would
normally correspond to 65-70 kt surface winds. However, these
velocity values have been collocated with only 15-25 dBZ
reflectivity echoes, so the typical 80-85 percent reduction factors
likely don't apply. Sustained observed surface winds of 50-55 kt
have been reported, so the initial intensity will be held at 60 kt,
but that is only for winds over the ocean and near the coast.

Isaias is moving north-northeastward or 020/30 kt. The cyclone will
continue to accelerate north-northeastward today and tonight within
strong southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough and
associated cold front approaching the mid-Atlantic and New England
areas from the west. By 24 h, the Isaias is expected to slow down
and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone over Maine before it is
absorbed by a larger extratropical low located over southeastern
Canada. The new NHC track forecast is just an extension of the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the tightly clustered
consensus track models.

As Isaias moves north-northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic coast,
interaction with a strong upper-level jet maximum is forecast to
maintain the tropical storm's intensity longer than what typically
would be expected for inland decaying tropical cyclone. The global
models continue to indicate that Isaias is likely to produce
widespread tropical-storm conditions, with hurricane-force wind
gusts possible along the mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon.
As a result, the gust factor at 12 h remains above the standard
20-percent value in the Forecast/Advisory Product (TCMAT4).

In addition to the wind threat, Isaias is expected to produce heavy
rainfall along and just west of the I-95 corridor today, and the
Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of this area in a
high risk for life-threatening flash flooding.

There also remains a significant risk of tornadoes across the
mid-Atlantic coast and southeastern New York this afternoon,
possibly spreading into southern New England tonight.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and gusts to
hurricane force are expected along the mid-Atlantic coast, including
portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, through this afternoon, which
could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread across New England tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias,
will result in flash flooding, some of which may be significant in
the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially
life-threatening urban flooding remains possible in Philadelphia
and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today.
Scattered minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions
of the and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast
will also be susceptible to minor river flooding.

3. Numerous tornadoes have already occurred over portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast this morning. The threat of tornadoes will
continue along the mid-Atlantic coast spread into New England this
afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 39.1N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0000Z 43.2N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 48.2N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 52.0N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1200Z 53.6N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
100 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES OCCURRING OVER
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...

The New York Harbor Entrance buoy (44065) recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

Also, a Weatherflow observing site located at Barneget Inlet Light,
New Jersey, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h)
and a gust to 75 mph (121 km/h).

Strong and damaging winds are spreading northward into the New York
City metropolitan area that could knock down trees and power lines.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 75.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW of DOYLESTOWN PENNSYLVANIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...ISAIAS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 75.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM w OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Chincoteague, Virginia, and south of Smith Point in the Chesapeake
Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague Virginia to Eastport Maine
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 40.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Isaias is moving toward
the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion
accompanied by some increase in forward speed is expected through
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue
to move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states today,
and move across the northeastern United States into southern Canada
tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected this
afternoon, followed by a faster rate of weakening tonight. Isaias
is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The New York Harbor Entrance buoy (44065) recently
reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph
(117 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area in the mid-Atlantic states and
southern New England, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region today, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These
winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and Northern Mid-Atlantic: Additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially
life-threatening urban flooding remains possible Philadelphia, and
elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today. Scattered
minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northern New Jersey
and southeastern New York, through southern New England, by late
afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue across northern New
England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
300 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...

On Long Island, New York, the following wind reports have been
received during the past hour...

Farmingdale Airport (KFRG)...gust to 78 mph (126 km/h)
JFK Airport (KJFK)...gust to 70 mph (113 km/h)
La Guardia Airport (KLGA)...gust to 69 mph (111 km/h)
Fire Island...gust 67 mph

Strong and damaging winds will continue to spread northward across
the New York City metropolitan area, including eastern Long Island
and southern New England, that could knock down trees and power
lines.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF MONTICELLO NEW YORK
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...ISAIAS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 74.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM W OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey, including all of the Chesapeake Bay,
the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay. The Tropical Storm
Warning has also been discontinued north of Stonington, Maine.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to Stonington Maine
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 42.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. Isaias is moving toward
the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will continue to move farther inland over eastern New York
and Vermont this afternoon and evening, and over southern Canada
tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected this
afternoon and evening, followed by a faster rate of weakening
tonight. Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a NOAA NOS observing site at
Sandy Hook, New Jersey, reported a sustained wind 41 mph (67 km/h)
and a gust to 50 mph (80 km/h). Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph (80
km/h) have also been reported at multiple sites in southeastern New
York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts during the past
hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sandy Hook NJ to Martha's Vineyard MA including Long Island Sound,
Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, and Vineyard
Sound...1-2 ft

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area in eastern New York, Long Island, and
southern New England, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible.
These winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England by late afternoon, and reach northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches. Southern Quebec: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River
Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through
urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack
and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to
moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern New
England late this afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue and
spread across parts of northern New England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

NOAA Doppler radar data from Islip, New York (KOKX), indicated
70-kt winds just off the surface south of Long Island earlier this
afternoon, along with buoy reports from New York Harbor Inlet
(44065) that supported lowering the intensity to 55 kt, so that
value is used for this advisory.

The motion remains north-northeastward or 020/35 kt. Isaias will
continue moving north-northeastward through tonight, accompanied by
a gradual decrease in forward speed. In 12 hours or, the cyclone is
expected to interact with a larger extratropical over southeastern
Canada and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone near western
Maine. By 24 hours, Isaias is expected to transition to an
extratropical low, and dissipate or become absorbed by the
aforementioned larger extratropical low. The new NHC track forecast
is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies very close
to the tightly clustered consensus track models.

Isaias will continue to gradually spin down and lose its tropical
characteristics. The precipitation has decreased in size and also
has become more stratiform in appearance, which are indications that
the cyclone is gradually weakening. This downward trend should
continue until Isais becomes an extratropical low in 12-24 hours.

There also remains a risk of tornadoes across portions of New
England this afternoon and evening

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power
outages will continue to spread across New England tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River
Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through
urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack
and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to
moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.

3. The threat of tornadoes will spread into New England this
afternoon and evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 42.7N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart