zhukm29 wrote:bob rulz wrote:The NHC has simultaneously tracked 4+ storms before, so I don't really see why that would be an issue. I think they're just hesitant to designate storms right off the coast of Africa because of how quickly those big tropical waves can fall apart, especially with limited to no model support.
Personally, I think if it meets the requirements, it should be designated for consistency. What ends up happening is that a storm isn't designated even though it is like a TC, and then it falls apart when NHC waits too long. 93L has looked better than several other tropical depressions over the past day, and models have done a not-so-great job this year so far.
That being said, I'll defer to the experts on this - maybe they're seeing something we don't. 2020 might end up getting snubbed out of its record 6th July TC... I hope it doesn't try to beat 2005 in another way out of spite.
I definitely agree with you. This seems to our eyes to meet the definition of a tropical cyclone so it should be designated, but as you said maybe the NHC sees something we don't. But I've certainly seen more questionable cases and worse-looking depressions get designated before, so who knows? I think it just comes down to the fact that weather forecasting, even in real-time, is not an exact forecast and subjectivity and bias still play a part even amongst the experts.
