ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#81 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:30 pm

The mad lad actually did it. Maybe it’ll be lucky and become a TS before falling apart.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#82 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:31 pm

Technically five, with Cristobal, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias and now TD10, which only puts us behind 2005... kinda scary
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#83 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:33 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Technically five, with Cristobal, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias and now TD10, which only puts us behind 2005... kinda scary

Four systems have developed from AEWs this July. That’s a very concerning sign for ASO.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#84 Postby cainjamin » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:34 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Technically five, with Cristobal, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias and now TD10, which only puts us behind 2005... kinda scary


Oh yeah I forgot about Gonzalo. Sorry Gonzalo!
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#85 Postby gfsperpendicular » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:35 pm

aspen wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Technically five, with Cristobal, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias and now TD10, which only puts us behind 2005... kinda scary

Four systems have developed from AEWs this July. That’s a very concerning sign for ASO.


This entire year is a series of very concerning signs for ASO lol

On topic, I really hope they move up the formation date after the season is over.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#86 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:36 pm

cainjamin wrote:Oh yeah I forgot about Gonzalo. Sorry Gonzalo!


To be fair, so did the global models :)
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#87 Postby HurricaneEdouard » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:36 pm

Welp, there you go. Six tropical cyclones in July; 2005 had five. 2005's Tropical Depression Ten formed on August 13, and if Ten is able to eke out tropical storm intensity, we'll have Josephine long before 2005's Jose (which formed on August 22).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#88 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:44 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Special TWO issued, 50/50

Standard small increase in organization could lead to advisories wording, but I dunno how much more organization they're waiting to see lol, it's been impressive for 48 hours. It's like the storm exposed its LLC to prove it had one then started covering itself up, it wants to sneak in a 6th July TC so badly :)


Presumably they want to make sure it doesn't just poof an hour or two later, I've seen a few near-upgrades that have done so after upping to 70%.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#89 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:47 pm

Yeah honestly I get the feeling the last two days they've been expecting it to immediately die by advisory cycle time, which is fair I guess, but now that it's been vigorous all day it's probably worth making it a brief TD
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#90 Postby Hammy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:49 pm

Has anything ever been recorded further east than this in July?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#91 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:49 pm

Officially forecast to become a TS briefly. Absolutely wild
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#92 Postby shiny-pebble » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:49 pm

I'd imagine this is the farthest east a TC has developed in July, right?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#93 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:50 pm

Forecast to become TS Josephine very briefly. Just another name off the list likely in order to exhaust the name list.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#94 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:52 pm

24.7W is apparently the number to beat for July (Bertha 2008) so if named at 11 yeah looks like it
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#95 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:57 pm

TD 10 is quite far north and not anywhere near as much concern as Isaias.
People might hear TD when they should hear hurricane.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#96 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:57 pm

Probably been a TD for the last 2 days at least, but glad to see it finally being recognised.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#97 Postby Do_For_Love » Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:59 pm

Not sure what the chances are, but kinda rooting for it to get named at 11 so that July gets 6 storms lol
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#98 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:08 pm

KWT wrote:Probably been a TD for the last 2 days at least, but glad to see it finally being recognised.


Maybe even an unnamed TS if it doesn't get there?
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:08 pm

Do_For_Love wrote:Not sure what the chances are, but kinda rooting for it to get named at 11 so that July gets 6 storms lol


It would need to already be a TS in post-analysis to get such since it would go down as August 1 UTC time.
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Re: ATL: TEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#100 Postby Do_For_Love » Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
It would need to already be a TS in post-analysis to get such since it would go down as August 1 UTC time.


Ah dang. Maybe next year :P
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