ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942020 08/02/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 37 42 47 53 58 62 67 71 76 79
V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 37 42 47 53 58 62 67 71 76 79
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 23 24 26 29 33 39 46 54 63 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 7 11 6 11 15 13 3 2 8 3 8 1 2 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 1 3 0 0 -5 0 -5 1 1 1
SHEAR DIR 214 233 228 225 217 185 135 119 131 25 80 318 321 339 239 288 222
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 144 146 144 147 154 152 154 152 154 153 153 149 148 147
ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 135 139 141 138 137 142 134 132 128 129 126 126 122 120 121
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 49 49 52 53 51 57 57 60 58 56 56 53 54 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 36 30 19 6 -7 -44 -60 -87 -76 -70 -59 -62 -57 -71 -68 -55 -49
200 MB DIV 20 16 6 4 -5 2 -21 -20 -8 8 -2 -1 9 7 9 12 4
700-850 TADV 0 3 6 4 0 2 -4 4 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1
LAND (KM) 875 830 730 602 474 333 467 550 708 833 845 778 706 654 600 571 607
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.2 20.9 22.7 24.5 26.1 27.3 28.1 28.7 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.4 58.8 60.0 61.3 64.1 66.4 68.6 69.9 70.9 71.6 72.4 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 15 13 13 8 7 4 4 3 3 2 2 4
HEAT CONTENT 44 48 43 37 29 38 43 39 32 29 26 25 25 24 24 23 22

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. 41. 41. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 10. 12. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 27. 33. 38. 42. 47. 51. 56. 59.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.0 56.0

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/02/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.4% 15.1% 11.6% 5.1% 1.3% 8.2% 15.9% 24.2%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6%
Consensus: 1.2% 5.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.4% 2.8% 5.5% 8.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/02/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/02/2020 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 24 28 33 37 42 47 53 58 62 67 71 76 79
18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 27 32 36 41 46 52 57 61 66 70 75 78
12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 23 28 32 37 42 48 53 57 62 66 71 74
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[Hurricaneman]

Some models are sending this to the Northeast US especially the Euro, May need to keep an eye out between Bermuda and the Northeast US

[NDG]

Ships still showing a very good UL environment ahead for 94L

[plasticup]

Is this feature even captured in any of the models? I can't find anything that matches the NHC forecast.

[Blown Away]

A few of the 06z guidance models have 94L doing a loop @30N/70W and send it SW. Let’s see if that’s a trend.

[AutoPenalti]

[St0rmTh0r]

https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_gefs_latest.png

Very interesting!? This will be one to watch.

[St0rmTh0r]

A few of the 06z guidance models have 94L doing a loop @30N/70W and send it SW. Let’s see if that’s a trend.

This year tracks are looking very 2004ish this could get interesting

[supercane4867]

Both HWRF and HMON are not showing much development for 94L.

[rainbow24]

Reminding me of a certain Jeanne of 2004.

[SconnieCane]

Reminding me of a certain Jeanne of 2004.

I don't think any model could accurately predict that type of track, least of all before an actual cyclone was even established. I'm surprised Jeanne isn't talked about more, it seems to be the least remembered of the numerous CONUS-landfalling majors of 2004-05. That loop-de-loop was wild to follow. Of course it caused most of its horrific death toll as a Category 1 in Hispaniola, but after (barely) pulling itself back together past the island and executing the loop, it made landfall in Florida as a respectable steady-state or intensifying Cat. 3 with a well-formed clear eye. It was also quite a large hurricane, not unlike Katrina of the next year in that regard. It certainly could have been a lot worse than it was in the U.S. had it hit a more densely populated and/or surge-prone portion of the coast.

The fact that it hit much the same area that had just been hit by not-quite-major (at landfall) Frances probably went a long way toward mitigating Jeanne's overall impact in the U.S., as well.

[Hurricane Mike]

Reminding me of a certain Jeanne of 2004.

I don't think any model could accurately predict that type of track, least of all before an actual cyclone was even established. I'm surprised Jeanne isn't talked about more, it seems to be the least remembered of the numerous CONUS-landfalling majors of 2004-05. That loop-de-loop was wild to follow. Of course it caused most of its horrific death toll as a Category 1 in Hispaniola, but after (barely) pulling itself back together past the island and executing the loop, it made landfall in Florida as a respectable steady-state or intensifying Cat. 3 with a well-formed clear eye. It was also quite a large hurricane, not unlike Katrina of the next year in that regard. It certainly could have been a lot worse than it was in the U.S. had it hit a more densely populated and/or surge-prone portion of the coast.

The fact that it hit much the same area that had just been hit by not-quite-major (at landfall) Frances probably went a long way toward mitigating Jeanne's overall impact in the U.S., as well.

Jeanne definately is on the "forgotten U.S. Major hurricane" list, along side others like Emily 1993, and Bret 1999.