EPAC: TEN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

92E INVEST 200811 1800 12.3N 126.3W EPAC 20 1009

1. Satellite imagery indicates that a poorly defined low pressure area
has formed in association with the elongated area of disturbed
weather located around 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Additional development is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days. The system is expected to move slowly westward toward the
central Pacific basin during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low pressure
located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains elongated. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, but environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. The system is not expected to move as quickly westward as
originally forecast, and a slower westward to west-northwestward
motion is now anticipated over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

There's going to be a bunch of these probably spawned from an active MT. We'll see if we get some decent systems but recent model runs are not as bullish as they once were.

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1300 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to
produce a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922020 08/12/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 38 41 42 42 39 37 36 38 37 38 38 37
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 38 41 42 42 39 37 36 38 37 38 38 37
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 26 24 23 21 20 20 19 19 19 19
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 8 12 17 19 22 23 25 21 19 17 12 5 7 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 0 0 0 1 4 -2 1
SHEAR DIR 29 1 351 36 41 59 65 64 61 60 61 49 44 50 9 306 255
SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 140 136 140 140 138 138 136 136 136 138 138 139 138
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 65 65 62 63 63 62 63 58 58 50 50 45 45 41 42 40 37
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 15 13 11 10 7 6 5 6 5 6 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 9 4 -4 -14 -10 -1 16 12 22 12 30 27 32 27 17
200 MB DIV 92 96 88 64 31 10 12 0 -3 -3 -20 -10 -28 -16 -9 -23 -2
700-850 TADV -7 -9 -11 -9 -5 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1963 1989 2040 2101 2141 2252 2387 2258 2146 2044 1970 1891 1837 1776 1706 1641 1563
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.9 127.7 128.6 129.5 131.3 132.9 134.3 135.5 136.5 137.2 137.9 138.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 8 8 7 11 10 7 7 7 9 11 14 13 10 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 17. 17. 14. 12. 11. 13. 12. 13. 13. 12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 126.3

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 08/12/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 4.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 4.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.27 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.2% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.2% 13.0% 9.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 12.5% 9.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 08/12/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

1. Satellite images suggest that a better-defined low pressure area is
forming about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, and the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is becoming a little better organized. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located
about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to become better defined. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is also showing
some signs of organization. Conditions are expected to remain
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form tonight or Thursday while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922020 08/13/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 37 41 40 40 38 40 41 42 45 44 45
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 35 37 41 40 40 38 40 41 42 45 44 45
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 19 21 19 21 25 29 24 20 18 20 18 17 15 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 -3 0 3 -2 -5 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0
SHEAR DIR 358 33 37 49 62 60 63 53 60 71 64 60 58 56 52 68 86
SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 140 137 142 141 141 138 137 137 138 141 143 143 145 145
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 61 60 59 57 56 49 48 46 49 48 50 47 45 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 10 9 10
850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 -3 -10 -17 -5 0 16 8 16 8 13 21 25 24 0 -37
200 MB DIV 97 65 48 28 17 19 16 12 -9 -15 0 -9 19 23 27 0 -22
700-850 TADV -7 -9 -9 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 2078 2139 2197 2246 2307 2405 2290 2200 2113 2028 1959 1903 1849 1805 1739 1667 1605
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.0 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.6 131.5 133.0 134.2 135.2 136.1 136.9 137.6 138.3 139.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 7 6 5 3
HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 7 7 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 16 27 29

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -12. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 15. 15. 13. 15. 16. 17. 20. 19. 20.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 127.9

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 08/13/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.43 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.07 0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 2.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 6.9% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 08/13/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with an area of low pressure located about 1300 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are expected to
be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form on Thursday while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 10, 2020081306, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1288W, 30, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 018, TRANSITIONED, epB22020 to ep102020,

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Satellite images over the past several hours have shown a gradual
increase in the organized deep convection associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, a recent ASCAT
overpass revealed that the low level circulation has become
well-defined. Based on these data, advisories have been initiated on
Tropical Depression Ten-E. The ASCAT wind data indicated 25-30 kt
peak winds. This along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB support an initial advisory intensity of 30 kt. It
should be noted that the ASCAT data showed that there were a few 35
kt wind vectors about 45 n mi west of the center of the system and
these are presumed to be rain-contaminated.

The depression is expected to be in a marginally conducive
environment for strengthening throughout the 5-day forecast period.
Although the system is forecast to remain over sufficiently warm
waters, SHIPS guidance suggests that moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear will prevail over the system for the next
several days. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone may encounter
some drier air which would also inhibit strengthening. The official
forecast shows only slight strengthening in the next 24 h, and no
change in intensity thereafter. This is in good agreement with most
of the intensity guidance.

The cyclone's motion is 285/06 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the
north of the depression is expected to steer the system slowly
westward over the next few days and the track model guidance is in
decent agreement through that time. By 72 h, the steering flow
appears to collapse, and as a result the depression is forecast to
move very slowly during the 3-5 day period. Once the steering flow
becomes weak the models diverge a bit with some moving the cyclone
northwestward, while others move it west-southwestward. Regardless
of this spread, the majority of the models agree that the cyclone
will move very little during that time. The official forecast track
splits the difference in the model solutions beyond day 3, and
closely follows the TVCE and TVCX consensus aids throughout the
5-day forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 13.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Yellow Evan]

13/1130 UTC 13.4N 129.6W T2.0/2.0 10E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TEN EP102020 08/13/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 32 34 35 35 35 32 34 34 36 37 40 40 41
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 32 34 35 35 35 32 34 34 36 37 40 40 41
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 31 30 28 26 25 23 23 23 23 24 24 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 18 19 20 21 24 19 19 16 12 10 7 5 6 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 2 -2 -4 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 38 46 65 73 66 68 52 53 47 31 41 37 30 48 115 182 209
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 137 138 141 140 139 138 137 136 134 134 134 133 132 130
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 61 59 56 55 50 51 50 51 47 48 44 44 43 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 10 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -15 -17 -11 -3 17 16 2 3 -4 -13 -25 -13 -12 -3 12 17
200 MB DIV 21 26 18 37 26 10 7 -11 -35 -38 -22 -29 -22 -22 -3 6 -6
700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0
LAND (KM) 2182 2228 2277 2319 2361 2395 2306 2276 2221 2179 2155 2114 2046 1998 1950 1892 1817
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 129.5 130.3 131.0 131.5 132.1 133.1 134.0 134.3 134.8 135.1 135.3 135.6 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 3
HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 7 8 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 11.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 129.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/13/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 3.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.10 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 1.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -2.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.92 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.7% 8.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 3.9% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/13/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

GPM and AMSR microwave passes from a few hours ago indicate that
the depression's low-level center is displaced a little to the
northeast of a mid-level center due to moderate northeasterly
shear. Since Dvorak estimates are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the
initial intensity is still 30 kt. The environment around the
depression is not ideal for much strengthening. On one hand, the
system is far enough south that cold waters will not be an issue.
However, northeasterly shear is expected to increase a little
further, and the environment appears to become more subsident
within the next 2-3 days. In addition, the global models do not
show the system detaching much, if at all, from the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, and that does not usually bode well for much
strengthening. SHIPS is the only model that indicates steady but
gradual strengthening for the entire forecast period. Otherwise,
the bulk of the other models, including HCCA, global models, and
the IVCN intensity consensus respond to the adverse environmental
conditions and show the cyclone weakening after 36-48 hours. The
updated NHC intensity forecast still shows the depression becoming
a tropical storm in the next 12 hours, but then weakens the system
back to a depression in 2-3 days through the end of the 5-day
period. It's also entirely possible that the system becomes a
remnant low at some point, since it may be difficult for organized
deep convection to be maintained.

The depression is moving westward, or 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level
ridging should maintain a general westward motion for much of the
forecast period, although the system's forward speed is expected to
slow to a crawl from 48 hours and beyond. The new track forecast
is relatively unchanged from the previous one and generally follows
the HCCA and other multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 13.8N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 13.8N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 14.7N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 14.9N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

This is likely another nameless TD. Something really quiet seasons are known for having a bunch of.

[Yellow Evan]

13/1730 UTC 13.8N 130.2W T2.0/2.0 10E -- East Pacific

[EquusStorm]

Shear for 3 days then dry subsidence as soon as that abates. If it's Fausto it certainly won't be for long.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

The depression's center had been tucked beneath a cluster of deep
convection not too long ago, but the convection has begun to wane a
bit and has been pushed off to the southwest of the center due to
modest northeasterly shear. Satellite classifications suggest that
the cyclone is close to becoming a tropical storm, but there is no
definitive data to explicitly support that, so the initial
intensity remains 30 kt. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is
forecast to continue over the system for the next 2-3 days, but the
thermodynamic environment should be favorable enough to possibly
allow the depression to just sneak across the tropical storm
threshold. The shear begins to abate after about 3 days, but then
the atmosphere becomes drier and more subsident, which may make it
difficult to maintain organized deep convection. The cyclone also
appears to fail to detach from the Intertropical Convergence Zone,
which does not favor a strengthening system. Therefore, no changes
were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which remains near
or just above the intensity consensus. All in all, there is high
confidence that the cyclone will not strengthen significantly, but
there is much less confidence in whether it will actually become a
tropical storm.

The initial motion remains 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is
expected to maintain a general westward heading through day 5, but
the cyclone could oscillate anywhere between southwest and
northwest at times. The system will be slowing down considerably in
a couple of days, with a forward speed essentially around 2 kt from
day 2 to day 5. Except for the GFS, the other models have slowed
down and shifted a little farther south on this cycle, and the NHC
forecast follows that trend. Because of the expected slow motion,
however, the new forecast ends up being not too far from the
previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 13.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 13.4N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 13.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 13.9N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 14.3N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1294050129524260864

[Yellow Evan]

13/2330 UTC 14.2N 130.8W T1.5/2.0 10E -- East Pacific