EPAC: TEN - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TEN EP102020 08/14/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 30 30 30 32 33 35 37 39 39
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 32 30 30 30 32 33 35 37 39 39
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 23 24 25 27 29 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 20 18 21 22 18 16 12 9 6 7 6 8 9 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -5 -5 -2 2 0
SHEAR DIR 67 75 71 68 66 47 48 52 48 55 44 24 45 100 128 126 121
SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 135 137 138 139 139 138 137 135 134 134 133 134 134 134 135
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 54 54 55 49 50 50 51 50 50 48 47 45 48 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 7
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -3 3 10 13 22 19 23 13 2 -8 -6 -1 5 13 15 15
200 MB DIV 21 21 15 0 -2 18 -10 -16 -24 7 5 6 -13 -9 8 -5 -14
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 2237 2264 2291 2338 2385 2374 2330 2278 2258 2220 2186 2145 2118 2066 2001 1961 1952
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 130.9 131.3 131.7 132.2 132.6 133.3 133.7 134.1 134.2 134.5 134.8 135.2 135.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 4 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 130.9

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 2.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.08 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -2.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.54 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 8.2% 6.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 2.8% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/14/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) #

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Holy decoupling Batman! Looks like Fausto might have to wait...

[EquusStorm]

About a two whole degree separation there, yeesh. Would be nice to actually get named storms out of some of these depressions before they die

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Since the issuance of the previous NHC advisory, deep convection
associated with the depression has waned and become separated from
the low-level center due to modest northeasterly shear. This has
resulted in the low-level center becoming exposed. With the recent
loss of organization, Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased and a
blend of the various estimates yields an initial wind speed of 30
kt. The dynamical model guidance suggests that moderate to strong
shear will continue to plague the cyclone during the next 2 to 3
days, and the intensity guidance is not quite as bullish as before.
As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change
in strength during that time. It still remains possible, however,
that new bursts of convection could allow the depression to cross
the tropical storm threshold. After 72 hours, the shear is
forecast to decrease but less favorable thermodynamic conditions
are expected to prevent strengthening. The new forecast calls for
the depression to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period, but this could occur much sooner if the shear
persists and the depression is unable to generate persistent
convection.

The depression is moving westward or 270/4 kt. A low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the system is expected to steer the cyclone
slowly west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, the depression is forecast to meander generally
northwestward. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended
toward a slower motion of the cyclone between days 2-5, and the
updated NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward to account
for this model trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 14.2N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 14.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 13.7N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 13.7N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 13.9N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 14.4N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 14.9N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[TallyTracker]

TD Ten-E is no longer forecast to become a tropical storm! If it fizzles without becoming named, it will be the fifth depression to do so! I can’t recall a season with so many depressions failing to reach TS strength in the East PAC!

[EquusStorm]

The one off the Mexican coast only has a fairly short window to strengthen before cooler waters so if it doesn't get together quickly, that one might go unnamed too; could have only two named storms out of this outbreak assuming the strong looking one to the southeast develops as expected.

[Yellow Evan]

This won't be a tropical cyclone in 24 hours in all likelihood.

[Extratropical94]

TD Ten-E is no longer forecast to become a tropical storm! If it fizzles without becoming named, it will be the fifth depression to do so! I can’t recall a season with so many depressions failing to reach TS strength in the East PAC!

2010 also had five TDs that failed to get a name (02, 06, 08, 10, 11)

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS gives this the weirdest track ive seen for an EPAC system, also makes it a cat.1 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Since the last advisory, the depression has maintained a small
ragged band of convection in its southwest quadrant. Intensity
fixes from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) do not
indicate that the system has changed appreciably so the intensity
remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The intensity guidance is generally more bullish on the future of
the depression than it has been previously. The COAMPS-TC and GFS
now forecast strengthening to occur in a few days, and the latter of
those models forms a symmetric CDO with an eye in simulated
satellite imagery around day 5. In the short term, strong
northeasterly shear should continue to limit the development
potential of the cyclone, but upper-level winds could become less
hostile in a few days. The main change to the NHC intensity forecast
was to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone through day 5 and
to show some minimal strengthening near the end of the period,
though it is slightly below the intensity consensus. That said,
there is perhaps equal probability that the system could become a
remnant low before the environmental conditions improve, in which
case no increase in the system's winds will likely occur.

No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast. The
depression is moving west-southwestward near 5 kt, steered by a low-
to mid-level ridge to its north. The global models indicate that the
ridge will weaken in a day or two, allowing the system to gain a
little latitude. Regardless of its exact heading, only a slow drift
is expected through early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 13.6N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 13.4N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 13.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 14.8N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 14.8N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020

ASCAT-B data valid around 1900 UTC showed max winds a little higher
than 30 kt associated with the rain-free circulation of the
depression. However, since that time, the convective structure of
the cyclone has degraded substantially and if it was previously
producing winds of tropical-storm-force, it likely no longer is
doing so at this time. Therefore, the initial intensity for this
advisory is held at 30 kt.

Only minor fluctuations in the intensity and structure of the
depression are expected for the next 3 days due to strong
northeasterly wind shear. Assuming the system doesn't dissipate at
some point during that period of time, the upper-level winds could
become less hostile early next week. The dynamical guidance
generally indicates that the tropical cyclone will hang on and
modest strengthening is possible early next week. No changes
were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the
multi-model consensus.

Likewise, only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track
forecast. The depression is still forecast to meander for the next 5
days, initially west-southwestward to westward, then northwestward
over the weekend. The strength of a low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone is the primary factor in the steering flow.
While there are slight variations from model to model on the speed
and heading of the tropical cyclone, they all agree that it won't
move much through the early portion of next week, and possibly even
beyond that. The NHC forecast essentially splits the difference
between the previous official forecast, HCCA, and TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 13.5N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 13.3N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 14.5N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 14.6N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[AnnularCane]

The latest advisories seem to have this poor thing stuck in a 35 mph limbo for days.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160231
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020

The depression is barely a tropical cyclone. The deep convection
that was located along the southern side of the circulation earlier
today has nearly completely dissipated, and the system currently
looks like an ITCZ low-level cloud swirl. The initial intensity is
held generously at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data.

The cyclone is currently experiencing strong northeasterly wind
shear, and given that the shear is expected to remain strong for
another day or so, this system could degenerate into a remnant low
during that time. However, the shear is expected to lessen after
that, and if the depression survives, it could linger for several
more days. The models show little change in strength, and the NHC
prediction keeps the system steady in intensity through the forecast
period.

Since the depression is caught in weak steering currents between a
low pressure system to its east-northeast and a narrow ridge to its
northwest, it has not moved much during the past several hours. As
the low east-northeast of the system pulls northward, the weak
depression, or its remnants, should generally drift northwestward
during the next couple of days and then southwestward after that
time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 13.1N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 13.2N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 12.7N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160841
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone. A small
burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of
the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding.
The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a
partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The depression is
expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the
next several days, so no change in strength is called for during
the forecast period. It should be noted that if the cyclone were
to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it
would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low.

The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while
embedded in weak steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast
to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days.
This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and
west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the
period. This is in line with the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

At the moment the depression is nearly devoid of convection, except
for a very small weakening burst over 100 n mi from the center. In
fact, there has not been any deep convection within 50 n mi of the
center since yesterday, and this convection has been sporadic. The
available Dvorak T-numbers only support 25 kt. However, given that
an earlier ASCAT overpass had a few vectors with higher values, the
initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is barely fitting
the definition of a tropical cyclone due to the lack of persistent
organized deep convection. If the system is not able to generate
sustained organized convection, it could become a post-tropical
remnant low at any time. Simulated satellite imagery from the global
models suggest this lack of persistent convection may continue, and
therefore the official forecast no longer keeps the system a
tropical cyclone through 5 days. The official intensity forecast is
generally in line with the intensity consensus aids throughout the 5
day time period, but makes the cyclone post-tropical in a couple of
days. It should be noted that the timing of the system becoming
post-tropical is highly uncertain and could happen much sooner or
later than indicated.

The cyclone is moving slowly north-northwestward at 3 kt. A weak
low- to -mid level ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone
over the next couple of days. This should result in a slow motion
while the depression turns to the northwest, then west. By midweek,
a more west-southwestward motion is anticipated. The latest NHC
forecast is is in between the previous one and the track consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto