ATL: KYLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Cool-looking storm this morning.
https://i.imgur.com/V19ULzo.gif

It’s getting close. Just needs to become a little less frontal, tighten up the circulation a bit (it’s there but quite broad), and fire some more convection closer to the exact center. I could see this becoming a tropical or subtropical depression later today.

[TallyTracker]

This already looks like it’s on the cusp of becoming a subtropical storm! Just a little more disconnection from the fronts and it’ll be there. It already has deep convection along the east side of the center.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Very close to TS-force winds. Have to wait and see what the NHC does though.

 https://twitter.com/TheWeatherMastr/status/1294305314666414080

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still looks too frontal to me currently but who knows. It does look pretty close to breaking away though IMO. They may decide to pull the trigger on TD status soon.

[MGC]

96L is coming together quickly. Looks a bit hybrid to me. Should turn tropical tomorrow when it moves away from the colder waters near the Atlantic coast.....MGC

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Luckily for us all, ASCAT-B managed to capture the side that ASCAT-A missed. Seems like we have a closed, albeit a bit broad, circulation that may be worth a designation of tropical depression.

 https://twitter.com/jakecarstens/status/1294310860224106497




Interesting to see what the NHC does.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'm thinking once the center hits about 72W it will be pretty clear it is shedding its frontal appearance. The easterly flow from the circulation will be in a position to cut off any remaining connection to a front. I think we get Kyle late tonight or early tomorrow. Will keep us about 9 days ahead of the 2005 pace.

This is all my opinion however.

[MississippiWx]

This is already a tropical storm. Some 35kt+ wind barbs have shown up in satellite estimates. Another named storm coming. Just ridiculous. Peak season could be bananas.

[aspen]

If 96L becomes Kyle tomorrow (I think it’ll only be a depression if the NHC designates it as a TC/STC today), not only would that would shatter Katrina’s record for the earliest 11th named storm by 9 days, but it’ll make it even easier for 2020 to break the record for the earliest 12th named storm, currently held by Luis ‘95 on August 29th. The models are starting to like the idea of something trying to form in the last week and a half of August.

[HurricaneEnzo]

This is already a tropical storm. Some 35kt+ wind barbs have shown up in satellite estimates. Another named storm coming. Just ridiculous. Peak season could be bananas.

Yeah it really easy pretty scary. Especially since indications from some models are we could still be seeing consistent activity through the end of November. Might not beat 2005 but I will be surprised if it doesn't end up top 3 in a lot of categories before all is said and done.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Also think this will be the first area of interest I made a thread for that ended up getting invested and named (assuming it becomes Kyle which seems like a foregone conclusion). Finally got one right!

[HurricaneEnzo]

96L is looking far more impressive than Josephine right now.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[Aric Dunn]

ummm this should be Kyle shortly..

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks more like a mid-latitude cyclone to me. The western quadrant looks really exposed still.

[mcheer23]

HIGH risk

[cycloneye]

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the
low pressure area located about 300 miles south-southwest of
Nantucket, Massachusetts has become better organized. In addition,
recent satellite wind data show that the circulation is becoming
better defined, with winds to near gale force to the southeast of
the center. If current trends continue, a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to move east-northeastward
well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the
Canadian Maritime provinces. Additional information can be found in
High Sea High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[HurricaneEnzo]

It is in an area of pretty high shear as made evident by the center being exposed right now. It is moving with the shear though which should at least cancel some of the effects out. I think it will be able to maintain enough to get classified.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1294332080558497793

[eastcoastFL]

If this does become Kyle, that’s one step closer to Nana becoming a Big One this year.

Am I the only one who called their grandmother "Nana"?

Excuse my apparent ignorance but if Kyle is next, and Laura follows that one, how does "Nana" (a second straight female name) follow? Just curious.

A2K

How do I answers this without sarcasm... lol. “M”.

[eastcoastFL]

Besides Hanna 96l lookin better than most of the named storms we’ve seen so far.