EPAC: FAUSTO - Remnants

[cycloneye]

11E FAUSTO 200816 1200 20.2N 119.0W EPAC 35 1005

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a
circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding
features. Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below
tropical storm strength. Some slight strengthening could occur
today while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters. However,
in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause
the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days. The official
intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model
prediction.

Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression
is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Over
the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward
to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. Later in the forecast period, the weakening
system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as
it moves in the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is a
little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the
middle of the track guidance suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

16/1130 UTC 19.5N 119.8W T2.5/2.5 11E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over
the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available
Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity
of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB
and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the
2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C
SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by
Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing
Fausto's peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection
should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a
remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus aids.

Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving
northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and
a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the
cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south
of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The
official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance
and is little changed from the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 20.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Yellow Evan]

16/1731 UTC 21.9N 120.1W T1.5/2.5 FAUSTO

[wx98]

Has likely peaked. Forecast to be a remnant low tomorrow:

2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 16
Location: 21.5°N 121.0°W
Moving: NW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[Yellow Evan]

863
WTPZ41 KNHC 162031
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone
today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C.
The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little
generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no
change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the
26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24
C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to
begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is
forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night.

Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17
kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the
cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of
west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official
forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is
little changed from the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Deep convection continues to decrease near Fausto, with only a small
area remaining near and south of the center. Satellite estimates
are dropping and support making Fausto a 30-kt tropical depression
on this advisory, which also matches the 25-30 kt ASCAT data from
earlier. The cyclone is rapidly moving over cold water, and should
cease producing deep convection overnight. Thus further weakening
is likely, and remnant low status is expected on Monday, with a slow
decay over cold waters thereafter as shown in the global models.

Fausto is moving northwestward at around 15 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The storm should turn
westward tomorrow and south-of-west on Tuesday due to the
orientation of the lower- to middle-level ridge. The official
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and is not far
from the eastern Pacific model consensus aid, TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 23.1N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 24.1N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 24.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 24.0N 131.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

3 12 hour TS’s this season.

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Fausto has been absent of deep convection for about 12 hours, and
with the system over SSTs below 23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely
organized deep convection will return. Therefore, Fausto has
become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on
this system. The initial wind speed has been set at 25 kt, which
is a blend of the TAFB Dvorak T- and CI-numbers. The low should
continue to spin down over cooler waters over the next day or so,
and the global models indicate it will dissipate by Wednesday
morning.

The initial motion estimate is now westward or 280/11 kt. The
remnant low should turn west-southwestward on Tuesday while it
continues to weaken and comes under the influence of the
low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance remains in good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the multi-model
consensus.

This is the last NHC advisory on Fausto. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 23.4N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 18/0000Z 23.8N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 23.8N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 23.4N 132.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown