ATL: MARCO - Models

[Steve]

Yep, gfs is correcting toward icon. WAY further north and east than 06z

This is absolutely nuts. That's a day and a half from landfall, and some massive swings still in these tracks. It must be noted tyhat the GFS has been pretty bad though this season.

Yeah and it makes the NHC’s job really tough. Looking at the steering, it’s essentially saying it will latch on to the weakness as the trough lifts out and escape before the ridge builds back in on top of Laura and pushes her west. So Marco could actually landfall east of Laura if this verifies.

It’s plausible. Maybe the farther north position and faster movement could allow for that kind of track.

[HouTXmetro]

Yep, gfs is correcting toward icon. WAY further north and east than 06z

This is absolutely nuts. That's a day and a half from landfall, and some massive swings still in these tracks. It must be noted tyhat the GFS has been pretty bad though this season.

Yeah and it makes the NHC’s job really tough. Looking at the steering, it’s essentially saying it will latch on to the weakness as the trough lifts out and escape before the ridge builds back in on top of Laura and pushes her west. So Marco could actually landfall east of Laura if this verifies.

Would that have implications on the Ridge's strength? Stronger, Weaker?

[Ivanhater]

It's already making Laura's position much further north as well on the gfs so far

[MGC]

I'm getting fatigued watching the models....they are all over the place. 12Z GFS landfalls Marco in SE La with Laura hot on his heels.....MGC

[Nederlander]

This is absolutely nuts. That's a day and a half from landfall, and some massive swings still in these tracks. It must be noted tyhat the GFS has been pretty bad though this season.

Yeah and it makes the NHC’s job really tough. Looking at the steering, it’s essentially saying it will latch on to the weakness as the trough lifts out and escape before the ridge builds back in on top of Laura and pushes her west. So Marco could actually landfall east of Laura if this verifies.

Would that have implications on the Ridge's strength? Stronger, Weaker?

Likely depends on the strength of Marco. Stronger Marco could help keep the ridge at bay, weaker could allow for stronger ridging

[SoupBone]

I'm getting fatigued watching the models....they are all over the place. 12Z GFS landfalls Marco in SE La with Laura hot on his heels.....MGC

And just a day or so ago, the possibility of a Tex/Mex ladfall was on the table (with the GFS). I hope someone saves a gif loop of these various models runs so we can see how crazy they've jumped all over the place.

[MississippiWx]

It has been well advertised that a stronger Marco goes farther East. Weak storm goes to Texas. GFS finally sees the stronger storm. It will likely be able to stay stronger if it stays East away from the shear and dry air over the western Gulf.

[SoupBone]

CMC is up and at 30 hours has Marco moving N, slightly NW.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has a huge shift East to SE Louisiana as well

[ronjon]

Let's keep in mind when we're complaining about model swings in the shorter term is that it's really unprecedented to have two storms in close proximity like this. Global models due to their resolution issues have to play catch up on the local changes to synoptics. Add in we're now getting good drop sonde sampling of the atmospheric environment and intensity changes in the individual storms and it makes shorter and midterm forecasts much more challenging.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1297206638802358275

[northjaxpro]

Let's keep in mind when we're complaining about model swings in the shorter term is that it's really unprecedented to have two storms in close proximity like this. Global models due to their resolution issues have to play catch up on the local changes to synoptics. Add in we're now getting good drop sonde sampling of the atmospheric environment and intensity changes in the individual storms and it makes shorter and midterm forecasts much more challenging.

Yes Ronjon very good explanation. I could not have stated it better myself. We have a very unique and rare phenomenon occuring in our part in the world with the Binary Interaction of two cyclones in close proximity of esch other. It will cause quute a few complecities with the models in the mefium term

[3090]

http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1297206638802358275?s=20

Well that is interesting and certainly sobering. Does not surprise me, but a swing back to the east that dramatic, is very atypical for the NHC to consider and change to. If they do, it will be as gradual as they can be, over 2-3 advisory cycles. They typically will NEVER change their forecast track that drastically. BUT this is a unique situation with 2 storms and it is 2020!

[SoupBone]

http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1297206638802358275?s=20

Well that is interesting and certainly sobering. Does not surprise me, but a swing back to the east that dramatic, is very atypical for the NHC to consider and change to. If they do, it will be as gradual as they can be, over 2-3 advisory cycles. They typically will NEVER change their forecast track that drastically. BUT this is a unique situation with 2 storms and it is 2020!

With a possible landfall in around 48 hours, I don't think they have the time for gradual shifts unless they put out a special advisory. I really don't envy their position. The Euro coming up is going to be really interesting to see if it follows the other models for both Marco and Laura.

[txag2005]

http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1297206638802358275?s=20

Well that is interesting and certainly sobering. Does not surprise me, but a swing back to the east that dramatic, is very atypical for the NHC to consider and change to. If they do, it will be as gradual as they can be, over 2-3 advisory cycles. They typically will NEVER change their forecast track that drastically. BUT this is a unique situation with 2 storms and it is 2020!

With a possible landfall in around 48 hours, I don't think they have the time for gradual shifts unless they put out a special advisory. I really don't envy their position. The Euro coming up is going to be really interesting to see if it follows the other models for both Marco and Laura.

The Euro already had a large shift East for Marco overnight. Assuming that holds you have to imagine the NHC track is moved east later today.

[smw1981]

I would think it would depend on the rest of the 12z models (as to if the NHC starts swinging the cone eastward). It will definitely be interesting to see what happens (with the models and the NHC). I don’t think I have ever seen models have so much discrepancy 72/48 hours out from landfall. 2020 is so bizarre.

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS position through 42 hours is very plausible and likely. Not buying the poleward movement after that, however.

[3090]

I would think it would depend on the rest of the 12z models (as to if the NHC starts swinging the cone eastward). It will definitely be interesting to see what happens (with the models and the NHC). I don’t think I have ever seen models have so much discrepancy 72/48 hours out from landfall. 2020 is so bizarre.

Exactly my view. I have never seen so much uncertainty and such wild swings.

[Ivanhater]

12z Hmon brings Marco up toward NW Florida or Alabama but being sheared

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[SoupBone]

So the HWRf shows Marco on a NW path, fairly weak, treking across the GoM (24 Hour - 1008 pressure).