ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2020081718, , BEST, 0, 106N, 330W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121167

[EquusStorm]

And thus begins a thread that may live in some sort of infamy, if some of the solutions verify. The meat of the 2020 season has begun

[cheezyWXguy]

It begins! Could be the first big boy of the season.

(Though I wouldn’t exactly call Isaias or Hanna weaklings)

[Cataegis96]

This one certainly has that feeling to it. Many days to prepare thankfully if some of the more worrisome outcomes verify. Nonetheless, we will be looking at impacts to the Leeward Islands by the end of the work week.

[wxman57]

At least it's pretty clear there is no U.S. threat from this system. Track into the Bahamas then turning NE, right?

[toad strangler]

Right now @gatorcane is looking (as we all are) for ANY HINT of a trough / weakness to ensure his 2020 FL E Coast no threat forecast holds up.

Well this didn't age well

That's still a threat. Hope it stays just a threat!

[storm4u]

At least it's pretty clear there is no U.S. threat from this system. Track into the Bahamas then turning NE, right?

Watching here in New England.. seems like you'll be busy for awhile now..

[ConvergenceZone]

At least it's pretty clear there is no U.S. threat from this system. Track into the Bahamas then turning NE, right?

Nice try Wxman. You funny guy! lol

[aspen]

At least it's pretty clear there is no U.S. threat from this system. Track into the Bahamas then turning NE, right?

Watching here in New England.. seems like you'll be busy for awhile now..

I’m up in New England and keeping a close eye on this. There are several large trees in the side of my yard that are going to be taken down towards the end of the month, because they could fall on my house. The last thing we need is a TC before the trees are removed.

[CaribJam]

98L INVEST 200817 1800 10.7N 34.0W ATL 25

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121167

Pros,

1. The above says 10.7N and 34.0W
2. NHC has the "X" with 30/70 formation change at about 27W

Please explain.

[cycloneye]

First look of 98L is very good.

[Do_For_Love]

98L looks kinda good already. How quickly could we be looking at a TS here?

[cycloneye]

98L INVEST 200817 1800 10.7N 34.0W ATL 25

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121167

Pros,

1. The above says 10.7N and 34.0W
2. NHC has the "X" with 30/70 formation change at about 27W

Please explain.

NHC was watching two areas SW of CV Islands and decided to go with the most western one.

[wxman57]

What, y'all don't believe me? That's good. For now, it's something to keep an eye on. Models are in fair agreement on something, possibly a TS, passing over or north of the NE Caribbean Islands on Saturday. That seems reasonable - heavy squalls possible NE Caribbean this weekend whether or not it develops. Beyond then, who knows? GFS takes 97L into the Gulf and inland into the LA coast next Tuesday as a strong TS, followed bu 98L cutting through the Yucatan Channel as 97L is making landfall. 98L moves inland into Brownsville as a hurricane next Thursday.

Euro has Dorian, part II. Slow moving major hurricane over the Bahamas next Sunday/Monday then turning north and northeast, passing offshore of the OBX next Thursday. ICON is similar, though it doesn't go out as far as the Euro.

Then there's the Canadian, which has 97L as a TS off the mid Texas coast next Tuesday at the SAME TIME as 98L is a major hurricane in the NE Gulf. 97L is driven southward into NE Mexico as 98L creams Pensacola.

Given all that, the long-term forecast is clear as mud. I'd say that if it develops east of the Caribbean then there may be a better chance it will pass NE of the Caribbean, possibly turning north sooner. If it doesn't develop over the next 5-7 days, then it may reach the Gulf and have a shot there.

[aspen]

98L is likely worthy of 40-60% in 48 hours and 80-90% in 5 days for the 8pm TWO. Not only does it look good so far, but the CMC, ECMWF, NAVGEM, and ICON all develop it into a TC in 48-72 hours.

[wxman57]

98L looks kinda good already. How quickly could we be looking at a TS here?

Well, it looks better than Josephine did all weekend...

[curtadams]

Looks good, but it's forming from a large area of disturbed weather in the ITCZ and that's almost always a slow process. Normally there's a big bend in the ITCZ behind it at least a day before formation, and I'm not seeing anything.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks good, but it's forming from a large area of disturbed weather in the ITCZ and that's almost always a slow process. Normally there's a big bend in the ITCZ behind it at least a day before formation, and I'm not seeing anything.

Agreed. This is a large package that will need to wrap up, consolidate, and separate from the ITCZ before it really gets going. All the parts are there but it will take a little bit to get the engine cranking.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks good, but it's forming from a large area of disturbed weather in the ITCZ and that's almost always a slow process. Normally there's a big bend in the ITCZ behind it at least a day before formation, and I'm not seeing anything.

Not as big as the disturbance that spawned Isaias, so there's that working in its favor.

[CaribJam]

98L INVEST 200817 1800 10.7N 34.0W ATL 25

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121167

Pros,

1. The above says 10.7N and 34.0W
2. NHC has the "X" with 30/70 formation change at about 27W

Please explain.

NHC was watching two areas SW of CV Islands and decided to go with the most western one.

Thanks.

But does the formation chance remain the same?
Or given the expected interaction/merging of the two areas they will adjust the chance sometime later?