Portastorm wrote:HoustonFrog wrote:They caused me a lot of wasted time and effort
For those of us who either did not know or simply forgot ... once tropical systems in the Atlantic basin head north, the Euro has a noted "left" bias. I'll admit to succumbing to the Euro ensemble worry myself. And after being on this Board all these years, I should have known better. Kudos to the NHC as always.
That's easy to say in hindsight, so don't be too hard on yourself. It wasn't just the 'Euro ensembles' and some anecdotal evidence the west trend would continue. There were plenty of solid arguments for Laura going more west into Texas:
1) Laura, for most of her entire track, had been tracking on the west side of the guidance.
2) The Euro ensembles that showed the western shift,
when analyzed individually, made the most meteorological sense at the time.
3) Verified pressures of the ridge versus the model verification, esp. the GFS, showed the SE ridge was a bit stronger than modeled.
4) The Euro Ensembles weren't alone. The UKMET was west, the PARA GFS had shifted west, and a most of the GFS ensembles were on Texas.
For a short period of time, it appeared that Texas, perhaps Galveston, was becoming a certainty. When that happens, it becomes difficult, mentally, to get away from that momentum. Yesterday morning, I thought Laura was headed this way. It wasn't until yesterday evening that I 'threw in the towel' and was convinced it was gonna be a miss to the east.
