WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#161 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:59 am

It's kinda sad that with over 1.4 million residents and a large military presence, 90,000, there is absolutely no recon!
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#162 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:15 am

TXPQ27 KNES 310907
TCSWNP

A. 10W (MAYSAK)

B. 31/0830Z

C. 24.5N

D. 127.2E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A DT OF
5.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#163 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:29 am

Eye temp is now above 15°C
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#164 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:36 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#165 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:37 am

This is almost certainly a Cat 4 right now, and Dvorak supports that. Maysak might make a run for Super Typhoon status if the eyewall can better solidify.
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#166 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:15 am

2020AUG31 100000 5.3 948.5 97.2 5.3 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.18 -68.95 EYE 24 IR 49.6 24.73 -127.26 ARCHER HIM-8 32.6
2020AUG31 103000 5.6 942.4 104.6 5.6 6.1 6.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.61 -68.78 EYE 25 IR 49.6 24.80 -127.22 ARCHER HIM-8 32.7
2020AUG31 110000 5.7 940.1 107.2 5.7 6.0 6.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.10 -68.97 EYE 24 IR 49.6 24.88 -127.21 ARCHER HIM-8 32.7
2020AUG31 113000 5.9 935.6 112.4 5.9 6.0 6.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.72 -68.66 EYE 24 IR 49.6 24.98 -127.19 ARCHER HIM-8 32.8
2020AUG31 120000 6.0 933.3 115.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.99 -71.28 EYE 22 IR 49.6 25.10 -127.15 ARCHER HIM-8 33.0
2020AUG31 123000 6.0 933.3 115.0 6.0 5.8 6.6 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.02 -72.41 EYE 23 IR 49.6 25.15 -127.14 ARCHER HIM-8 33.0


10W MAYSAK 200831 1200 25.0N 127.2E WPAC 105 944


TY 2009 (Maysak)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 31 August 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 31 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N25°00' (25.0°)
E127°10' (127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 185 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 560 km (300 NM)
W 440 km (240 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#167 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:28 am

The southern eyewall appears to be disintegrating (AGAIN!)
Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#168 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:29 am

:uarrow: why did the JTWC only go for 105 kt? This is a clear T#6.0 (115 kt), and 105 kt is just a 5 kt increase from the last advisory.
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#169 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:48 am

aspen wrote::uarrow: why did the JTWC only go for 105 kt? This is a clear T#6.0 (115 kt), and 105 kt is just a 5 kt increase from the last advisory.


They revised

10W MAYSAK 200831 1200 25.0N 127.2E WPAC 110 939
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#170 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 9:40 am

Obs. so far
Image
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#171 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:23 am

Nice ASCAT scan. Definitely too close for comfort, but I'd say Okinawa-jima dodged a bullet! Kumejima may not be as lucky however, as it could get an eyewall hit later.

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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#172 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:32 am

Looks like an EWRC is coming, and the outer eyewall is HUGE.
Image
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#173 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:40 am

That's quite a curly band, but I don't think it is representative of an outer eyewall at this point.
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#174 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:41 am

Some condensed thoughts on Maysak and a personal forecast.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300457911966199809



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1300457914566610947


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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#175 Postby NotoSans » Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:55 am

Reminds me of Soudelor'15 when it approached Taiwan. Also had a WMG eye but microwave/radar showed concentric structure.
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#176 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:21 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#177 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:23 am

Gusts in southern Okinawa and Tokashiki are representative of typhoon force winds. Pretty big wind field right of the center.
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#178 Postby Dave C » Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:49 am

Is that area in the southern quad void of returns just radar attenuation?
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#179 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:10 pm

Dave C wrote:Is that area in the southern quad void of returns just radar attenuation?


Even Miyako radar is also showing that void. The south quad's just weak
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#180 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:09 pm

Kumejima is reporting 960.6 MB at the outer fringes of the inner eyewall while having sustained wind of 98 kph (10 minutes)

Can't find any METAR for Kumejima Airport :cry:
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