92C INVEST 200828 0000 12.0N 142.8W CPAC 25 1008
CPAC: INVEST 92C
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cycloneye
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CPAC: INVEST 92C
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Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP922020 08/28/20 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 33 34 36 39 42 42 43 42
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 33 34 36 39 42 42 43 42
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 20
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 17 20 16 19 21 17 8 8 8 11 8 9 8 13 16 21 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 2 -1 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 3 -1 0 0
SHEAR DIR 65 81 82 72 81 114 138 205 257 252 268 221 224 208 226 219 236
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 138 140 138 141 138 137 141 142 139 136 136 138 141 144
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 53 52 54 51 52 53 55 60 64 63 65 66 66 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 7 7 5
850 MB ENV VOR 29 34 38 37 38 33 16 2 -10 -18 -16 3 9 11 4 15 -3
200 MB DIV 61 61 32 10 -14 -34 -33 -7 4 20 43 90 80 68 23 49 18
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -4 -5 -7 -5 -8 -2 -1 1 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 1447 1414 1353 1292 1200 1022 842 684 582 597 700 819 901 894 889 893 946
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 143.3 143.6 144.2 144.9 145.8 147.7 149.8 152.1 154.5 157.0 159.4 161.3 162.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 10 9 6 6 6 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 6 7 6 10 18 10 13 14 12 16 18 20 30 37
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 14. 17. 17. 18. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 143.3
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922020 INVEST 08/28/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 3.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.05 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -2.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922020 INVEST 08/28/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP922020 08/28/20 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 33 34 36 39 42 42 43 42
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 33 34 36 39 42 42 43 42
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 20
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 17 20 16 19 21 17 8 8 8 11 8 9 8 13 16 21 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 2 -1 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 3 -1 0 0
SHEAR DIR 65 81 82 72 81 114 138 205 257 252 268 221 224 208 226 219 236
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 138 140 138 141 138 137 141 142 139 136 136 138 141 144
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 53 52 54 51 52 53 55 60 64 63 65 66 66 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 7 7 5
850 MB ENV VOR 29 34 38 37 38 33 16 2 -10 -18 -16 3 9 11 4 15 -3
200 MB DIV 61 61 32 10 -14 -34 -33 -7 4 20 43 90 80 68 23 49 18
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -4 -5 -7 -5 -8 -2 -1 1 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 1447 1414 1353 1292 1200 1022 842 684 582 597 700 819 901 894 889 893 946
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.8 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 143.3 143.6 144.2 144.9 145.8 147.7 149.8 152.1 154.5 157.0 159.4 161.3 162.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 10 9 6 6 6 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 6 7 6 10 18 10 13 14 12 16 18 20 30 37
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 14. 17. 17. 18. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 143.3
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922020 INVEST 08/28/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 3.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.05 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -2.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.76 0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922020 INVEST 08/28/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Globals are not impressed with this one and don't do much with it. But SHIPS shows after 36 hours, shear will be light with good SST and OHC values. So we'll see what it does.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
CPAC can generate some pretty nice systems from the monsoon trough if they can get strong enough. It's usually pretty rare though and much more likely in warm-neutral El Nino years.
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