WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#321 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:28 pm

NotoSans wrote:A late-arriving SMAP pass at 0848Z estimates 1-min sustained winds at 145KT.

A blend of SMAP, AMSU, as well as subjective and objective Dvorak data would yield a peak intensity of 140KT.

Data quality on that SMAP pass isn't ideal, but it does line up very well when compared to earlier AMSR2 wind data that was also processed by RSS.

Image

I would also put myself in the 140 kt camp for 06Z and 12Z, but like with Barbara and Lorenzo last year, it's so close and honestly justifiable either way. The SATCON graph shows how close it is, and probably why JTWC erred on the 135 kt side.

Image

SAR also got a hit on Haishen, but it was also probably in the weakening phase at this point. I'd also like to compare more SAR passes to storms with recon data. It seems to do very well with weak to moderate TCs, but some of the more intense TC passes recently have been a little suspect (Laura/Maysak).

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#322 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:57 pm

Already getting a bit windy at Minami-daito as Haishen approaches.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#323 Postby Highteeld » Fri Sep 04, 2020 11:34 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Time to wait until post analysis for a potential upgrade. Btw this is a little OT but does anyone know when the 2019 final best track will be released? I think they released 2018's about this time last year right?

They released it October 2 last year.
viewtopic.php?t=120640

Ah I was a month off. Also where do you get those best track updates? Sorry I'm still kinda new at this.

Here is the glorified version with wind radii

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 112020.dat
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#324 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:47 am

Okay perhaps later into 4th week of this month or October, we'll see at least one recognized Category 5. But anyway, I never expected a typhoon like Haishen to develop in 2020 given how every indicator points to a record dud WPAC season this year.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#325 Postby Ed_2001 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:31 am

dexterlabio wrote:Okay perhaps later into 4th week of this month or October, we'll see at least one recognized Category 5. But anyway, I never expected a typhoon like Haishen to develop in 2020 given how every indicator points to a record dud WPAC season this year.


I mean even the “duddest” of dud WPAC seasons usually had at least one Intense TC (cat 5/high 4) to shine about. (Megi 2010, Zeb 1998, Bart 1999, Lan 2017).

And right now, it’s only early September.

Edit: 1974 being the only exception apparently, for now. zero 130kts + storms that year.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#326 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:44 am

1900hurricane wrote:Already getting a bit windy at Minami-daito as Haishen approaches.

Pressure also fell below 980hPa. Other weather stations of Daitō Islands do not work now.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#327 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:47 am

Convection cooling considerably again.

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#328 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:47 am

Yesterday’s NOAA-20 image
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https://w.wiki/bH5
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#329 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:42 am

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#330 Postby NotoSans » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:14 am

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#331 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:39 am

Down to 115 knots. Still a powerful Category 4 closing in on Minamodaito.

WDPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 20-NM ROUND EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE SEEN IN MSI AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS HEDGED BELOW THE MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS), CLOSER TO A 050600Z
AUTOMATED ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 110 KNOTS. IT
APPEARS TY 11W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
GIVEN THE CONCENTRIC RINGS SEEN IN A 050751Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THERE IS OVERALL POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY GIVEN THE
CURRENT SPREAD IN GUIDANCE. TY 11W IS STILL IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN
ADDITION TO HIGH (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). HOWEVER,
SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO ERODE TY 11W ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST, NOW
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO, JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF LIMITED STRENGTHENING GIVEN
THE CURRENT ERC STATE BEFORE THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 36 AS SST VALUES DECREASE AND OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE. INCREASING VWS (30-50 KNOTS) AROUND TAU 48, COOLING SSTS,
AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, AND BY TAU 72,
TY 11W WILL BE REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS AFTER IT CROSSES INTO CHINA.
CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AROUND TAU 48 AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSFORM INTO A
COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING STR AND ALLOW TY 11W TO TRACK MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF KYUSHU, JAPAN, ACROSS
THE KOREA STRAIT, MAKE LANDFALL JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH
KOREA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 48, THEN PASS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN RANGES
OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, AS THE ONLY MAJOR OUTLIER AS IT DEVIATES
140NM FROM THE REST OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND TAU 36 TO OFFSET THE OUTLIER.//
NNNN
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#332 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:39 am

Concentric eyewalls showing up nicely on radar.
Max gust of 173kph and SLP of 965mb at Minamidaito so far.

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#333 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:25 am

Pressure is expected to fall below 960 hPa. 961.7 hPa at 10:00 UTC.

https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today ... oupCode=65
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#334 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:11 am

pressure down to 957.6 hPa in Minami while at a good distance away from the edge of the inner eyewall
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#335 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:12 am

Weather Dude wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Ah I was a month off. Also where do you get those best track updates? Sorry I'm still kinda new at this.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc202 ... ckfile.txt
From that link but I think there are some alternative links too

Thanks


If you like to follow globally, here's a good one.

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file
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Typhoon Haishen approaching the Ryukyu Islands on September 5

#336 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:50 am

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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#337 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:00 am

Right on track.

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#338 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:05 am

Miami now in the eyewall.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#339 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:05 am

That’s a massive outer eyewall.
Image
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon

#340 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:12 am

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09050424
SATCON: MSLP = 930 hPa MSW = 126 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 121.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 122 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.8 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 938 hPa 110 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP050640
CIMSS AMSU: 925 hPa 124 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09050033
ATMS: 910.8 hPa 142.7 knots Date: 09050424
SSMIS: 925.0 hPa 131.8 knots Date: 09050424
CIRA ATMS: 936 hPa 119 knots Date: 09050424
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