ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[tomatkins]

The Euro still has this low around moving westward north of the Azores on day 10.

Fast forward 10 days ahead. This post from 09/21 aged hilariously well. I may have lost count, but I'm pretty sure this thread has been moved back into the AS forum from the archives THREE times, meaning it's been opened up for discussion a total of FOUR times. This easily has to be a S2K record.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/Paulette_2020_track.png/768px-Paulette_2020_track.png

This is about a week old...I'm sure it will be updated, especially if zombie Paulette gets mentioned in an upcoming TWO.

In a bit of good news for Paulette (I guess), that Euro run was too slow and too far north. So its at least got more favorable waters to work with than it forecast to ten days ago.

[bob rulz]

So just to be clear, these are the clear, defined remnants of Paulette still? It hasn't been absorbed by any other system in that time?

[Blinhart]

Are you kidding me, it might come back for a 3rd time?

[AnnularCane]

So just to be clear, these are the clear, defined remnants of Paulette still? It hasn't been absorbed by any other system in that time?

Yes, is there enough left of her so that she can keep her name?

I suspect Paulette will be the next "Karen 2007."

[bob rulz]

No mention on the TWO yet.

[tomatkins]

No mention on the TWO yet.

While the low level remnants still exist, they appear to be becoming broader and harder to track (as the models suggested). However, the models do suggest it might strengthen a little in the next day or two as it passes well south of Bermuda, before it weakens again as it approaches the Bahamas and eventually finally getting completely destroyed by a cold front. But it seems unlikely that that strengthening (again, based on the models) will be enough to get close to classifying it.

Of course you never know.

[Spacecoast]

So did Paulett break either one of these records, yet??


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899


Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971

[TheStormExpert]

So did Paulett break either one of these records, yet??


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899
https://i.ibb.co/9Z0DjFy/250px-1899-San-Ciriaco-hurricane-track.png

Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971
https://i.ibb.co/7XMqCxr/220px-Ginger-1971-track.png

No, because it’s not named.

[tomatkins]

So did Paulett break either one of these records, yet??


Longest duration (non consecutive): "San Ciriaco" 28 days - 1899
https://i.ibb.co/9Z0DjFy/250px-1899-San-Ciriaco-hurricane-track.png

Longest duration (consecutive): Ginger 27.25 days - 1971
https://i.ibb.co/7XMqCxr/220px-Ginger-1971-track.png

its cant break Gingers record, because it has stopped being a tropical storm (twice)

If became named oat 15Z Sept 7. If it was to become a tropical storm 15Z on Oct 5 , it would break the San Ciriaco record - its not likely, but the models have the 5th right now as the date where it will be at its strongest going forward. So if it somehow overachieved and managed to organize back into a tropical storm, it would likely break the record.

Of course the San Ciriaco was long before any kind of systematic tracking - it was probably a tropical storm before a ship happened to come upon it. But we'll never know.

[bob rulz]

Also if Paulette really does do it, who's to say that other storms in the past did the same thing but were classified as 2 (or 3) separate tropical storms? There's no way a storm taking Paulette's track would be classified as the same storm before satellite technology.

[tomatkins]

Also if Paulette really does do it, who's to say that other storms in the past did the same thing but were classified as 2 (or 3) separate tropical storms? There's no way a storm taking Paulette's track would be classified as the same storm before satellite technology.

Theres been alot of ship traffic in that area of the north Atlantic for quite some time, so its possible. But yeah, its definitely plausible that the period from it leaving the Azores to a hypothetical reemergence as a tropical storm south of Bermuda might go unrecorded.

[cycloneye]

Paulette 4?

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central
Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is
associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[us89]

Looks like this is actually the remnant of Paulette, believe it or not. Would it still be named Paulette if it were to form, given its surface low pressure center of circulation has degenerated into a trough?

[Ryxn]

So is the 10/10 lemon going to be named Paulette if it forms or will it be named Delta/Epsilon/Theta (depending on when 92L and the 20/20 form)?

Naming it Paulette again would cause quite the challenge for whomever edits the timeline graphic for the season on Wikipedia. The storms after Delta and Epsilon would have to form later than around October 20 to avoid interfering with the name Paulette on the graphic. Would be a tight fit. See below.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timelin ... ane_season

[galaxy401]

Paulette's name isn't mentioned in the TWO so if this does becomae a TS or STS, it might be given a different name.

[SconnieCane]

Looks like this is actually the remnant of Paulette, believe it or not. Would it still be named Paulette if it were to form, given its surface low pressure center of circulation has degenerated into a trough?

I think once the LLC opens up, it's curtains for "Paulette," although it certainly took long enough.

[tomatkins]

So is the 10/10 lemon going to be named Paulette if it forms or will it be named Delta/Epsilon/Theta (depending on when 92L and the 20/20 form)?

Naming it Paulette again would cause quite the challenge for whomever edits the timeline graphic for the season on Wikipedia. The storms after Delta and Epsilon would have to form later than around October 20 to avoid interfering with the name Paulette on the graphic. Would be a tight fit. See below.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timelin ... ane_season

You can track the low level circulation from back when it was last a tropical storm until now, so I don't see why they wouldn't name it Paulette.

[AJC3]

Looks like this is actually the remnant of Paulette, believe it or not. Would it still be named Paulette if it were to form, given its surface low pressure center of circulation has degenerated into a trough?

I think once the LLC opens up, it's curtains for "Paulette," although it certainly took long enough.

There have been several tropical storms that have opened up into waves (mainly due to their rapid forward speed) only to close back off and were allowed to retain the same name as a TS.

[snowystar]

According to ATCF, NHC haven't officially kill off Paulette yet:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/AL_storms.txt.nhc

Although they tag the new area as Genesis057, but they did the same for Paulette 2.0.

[tomatkins]

Looks like this is actually the remnant of Paulette, believe it or not. Would it still be named Paulette if it were to form, given its surface low pressure center of circulation has degenerated into a trough?

I think once the LLC opens up, it's curtains for "Paulette," although it certainly took long enough.

Didn't harvey become an open wave at some point.