ATL: PAULETTE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Well we finally have a sollid Circ.

multiple small vorts rotating around... still like way way more consolidated than yesterday.

models should start to do better now and a couple more ASCAT passes.

[aspen]

Well we finally have a sollid Circ.

multiple small vorts rotating around... still like way way more consolidated than yesterday.

models should start to do better now and a couple more ASCAT passes.

Yep, it’s getting there. The circulation is still elliptical, but it’s become a defined elliptical circulation that should tighten up more once convection fires during Dmax.

I don’t get why some models are showing more interaction between 92L and other waves. 92L is hundreds of miles ahead of 93L, which is also coming together decently and could recurve earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

Well we finally have a sollid Circ.

multiple small vorts rotating around... still like way way more consolidated than yesterday.

models should start to do better now and a couple more ASCAT passes.

Yep, it’s getting there. The circulation is still elliptical, but it’s become a defined elliptical circulation that should tighten up more once convection fires during Dmax.

I don’t get why some models are showing more interaction between 92L and other waves. 92L is hundreds of miles ahead of 93L, which is also coming together decently and could recurve earlier.

couple days ago. it was because 92L slowed down allowing 93L to catch up then get thrown north..

now the GFS and a couple others are developing a magical 3rd TC north of 92L and 93L right under the ridge in a few days.. which of course creates a weakness and then all 3 go out to sea.

thus spurious TC that models try to develop well to the north is unlikely.

the 00z Euro was at least logical but still has some oddities.

so we wait.

[curtadams]

couple days ago. it was because 92L slowed down allowing 93L to catch up then get thrown north..

now the GFS and a couple others are developing a magical 3rd TC north of 92L and 93L right under the ridge in a few days.. which of course creates a weakness and then all 3 go out to sea.

thus spurious TC that models try to develop well to the north is unlikely.

the 00z Euro was at least logical but still has some oddities.

The old GFS just loved to develop phantom storms with weird motions out of the African monsoonal trough. Possibly still at it. What's odd to me is that all these high-grade invests wandering around and dancing with or assassinating each other looks kind of like what the GFS liked to imagine, except that it's actually happening, and I don't recall that before.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF running, keeps 92L weak due to strong wind shear through 60 hours.

[SFLcane]

HWRF running, keeps 92L weak due to strong wind shear through 60 hours.

Keeps it weak but far west.

[sma10]

HWRF running, keeps 92L weak due to strong wind shear through 60 hours.

Keeps it weak but far west.

Yes, the HWRF differs significantly from the globals, trackwise

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro recurves across Central Atlantic. Posted in global models thread since we can see what it does with the rest of the systems.

[SFLcane]

Certainly a possibility it gets into the Gulf if a magic trapdoor doesn't open somewhere. After all, it's still september 6, it's not october just yet. This is still the heart of Cape Verde season.

mentioned earlier that a western atlantic turn is most likely. the solutions turning north before reaching the longitude of the islands is very unlikely since the initial turn is from the interaction of 92L and 93L. which is the real issue with the models.

Note the HWRF. Around 19.5n 58w at end of run. No interaction with 93L

Could still recurve near 60w but this is how the hwrf ends.

[ronjon]

18z GFS takes it further west and weaker like HWRF. Wait and see on this one.

[AtlanticWind]

None of the 18z intensity models on tropical tidbits make this a hurricane.

Not buying that at the moment

[sma10]

None of the 18z intensity models on tropical tidbits make this a hurricane.

Not buying that at the moment

The HWRF, routinely mocked for aggression, keeps this a weak TS and moves it very close to the islands

[LarryWx]

18Z EPS 144: TD17 is on lower right. Similar to the 6Z EPS, a good number of these aren't clearcut OTS recurves:

[sma10]

18Z EPS 144: TD17 is on lower right. Similar to the 6Z EPS, a good number of these aren't clearcut OTS recurves:

https://i.imgur.com/D92Oz1D.png

Larry, also not sure how much stock you put in the hurricane models, but 18z HMON and HWRF are also unclear OTS scenarios

[CrazyC83]

Weaker would keep it farther west I would think? While a strong Paulette would interact with what would be Rene and create chaos in the central Atlantic?

[AutoPenalti]

I’m starting to suspect a lot of these supposed OTS scenarios seem to be influenced by fujiwhara interactions.

[Aric Dunn]

oh boy looks like the GFS is trapped.. hige swing again from GFS>

[USTropics]

Weaker would keep it farther west I would think? While a strong Paulette would interact with what would be Rene and create chaos in the central Atlantic?

That's exactly what the 00z GFS operational model has this run. A weaker TD17 (far WATL) escapes any interaction with 93L (now a hurricane in EATL), and gets pretty far west this run. We also have 93L pumping up a thin ridge that's steering the wave (CATL) exiting Africa later this week:

[Aric Dunn]

Weaker would keep it farther west I would think? While a strong Paulette would interact with what would be Rene and create chaos in the central Atlantic?

That's exactly what the 00z GFS operational model has this run. A weaker TD17 (far WATL) escapes any interaction with 93L (now a hurricane in EATL), and gets pretty far west this run. We also have 93L pumping up a thin ridge that's steering the wave (CATL) exiting Africa later this week:
https://i.imgur.com/uDjDb7x.png

We can at least say one thing..

the models are a giant mess right now.. couple more days and things should begin to resolve themselves.

[Shell Mound]

18Z EPS 144: TD17 is on lower right. Similar to the 6Z EPS, a good number of these aren't clearcut OTS recurves:

https://i.imgur.com/D92Oz1D.png

Note, however, that even the ambiguous members are well north of the islands. Normally, a TC in that position would miss the mainland U.S. and threaten Bermuda. So even if TD Seventeen “bends back” in the long range, it would be sufficiently far to the north that an incoming trough would take it OTS. At most TD Seventeen would pose a potential threat to Bermuda, but that’s about it. As far as potential impacts to the mainland U.S. are concerned, I would be much more anxious if the models were showing TD Seventeen tracking closer to or through Hebert Box #1 (15°–20°N, 60°–65°W). I don’t think these latest model runs will make much of a difference in the ultimate outcome, which is still heavily weighted toward OTS solutions or threats to Bermuda at most.