ATL: PAULETTE - Models

[plasticup]

Most 12z models now bring this to hurricane strength. 06z GEFS ensembles (00z para ensemble) are also stronger than before. Safe for a single member, all tracks recurve away from the US, but Bermuda seems to be directly in Paulette's path.

https://i.imgur.com/9clNT5G.png

https://i.imgur.com/NzwLF04.png

https://i.imgur.com/Oy3zpXZ.png

Reminiscent of Humberto.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1304052786540294144

[shiny-pebble]

Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

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[plasticup]

Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major

[mitchell]

Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major

I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!

[cheezyWXguy]

Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major

I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!

It doesn’t, gfs is too low res to accurately resolve winds. Considering where Paulette is located, I would imagine anything mid 960s or lower would equate to a cat3

[SconnieCane]

Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major

I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!

It's influenced by factors like environmental background pressure and storm size (smaller storm=tighter gradient=not as low pressures required to produce very strong winds); but it certainly could be.

[plasticup]

Out through 108 hours 12z has a Major Hurricane that just barely misses Bermuda (all though Bermuda just barely gets scraped.)

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major

I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!

You can find the 10 meter elevation windfield here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91012&fh=6

Text in the top right outputs the maximum wind speed. The 12z run maxes out at 84 knots while passing Bermuda, briefly weakens, then has a second maximum of 88 knots while making the extra-tropical transition.

[Hammy]

Which model? GFS doesn't reach Major

I've always been curious about this. GFS gets Paulette down to 954-959 mb. for about 72 hours beginning hr 132. Is this pressure range a major? Does the GFS model actually forecast max winds speeds? I've never seen that model output.

Thanks!

It doesn’t, gfs is too low res to accurately resolve winds. Considering where Paulette is located, I would imagine anything mid 960s or lower would equate to a cat3

GFS had similar issues with Laura as well if I remember correctly, bringing it in as a low-end Cat 2 despite pressure in the 940s.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The euro is having Fujiwara fits. It has systems spinning around systems to where its hard to even follow. I dont think the models (for this reason) are doing a very good job on this scenario. It has Rene following Paulette in tandem only to spin around the next system (Sally) only to die out heading to the GA from the NE
?????

[mitchell]

You can find the 10 meter elevation windfield here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91012&fh=6

Thank you! I've looked at that graphic a million times and never seen that text you pointed me to.

[mitchell]

You can find the 10 meter elevation windfield here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91012&fh=6

Thank you! I've looked at those 10 meter winds model output graphics a million times and never seen that text you pointed me to.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z gfs does not look good for Bermuda. Passes very near the island as a cat3

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z Euro continues to be too weak through 72 hours. NHC forecast at this point is a solid Cat 1, whereas the model shows a 45 knot TS.

[plasticup]

Cat 3, eyewall over my house.

[aspen]

18z HWRF is weaker but still shows a Cat 2/3 hurricane (it might be underestimating the winds). Bermuda gets struck by the eastern eyewall.

[plasticup]

Cat 3 landfall is still in the cards

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS has at 294 a weak but hanging on Paulette way ESE of Teddy at 26N, 39W moving WSW!

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS hangs onto Paulette for the next 16 days! Of course it weakens significantly after four days.

[Fancy1001]

The latest gfs run is making me wonder if my fantasy storm could become a reality. A storm making two trips around the Atlantic.