ATL: PAULETTE - Models

[ronjon]

While an OTS solution is still most likely due to the latitude it will gain by the time it reaches 60W, we'll have to keep an eye on the 500 mb pattern in the SW Atlantic. If the storm is weaker and follows a slightly more southern track near the VI or PR AND mid level ridging builds in about a week per latest Euro, then this storm could threaten Bahamas or east US coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020090700&fh=168

[plasticup]

While an OTS solution is still most likely due to the latitude it will gain by the time it reaches 60W, we'll have to keep an eye on the 500 mb pattern in the SW Atlantic. If the storm is weaker and follows a slightly more southern track near the VI or PR AND mid level ridging builds in about a week per latest Euro, then this storm could threaten Bahamas or east US coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2020090700&fh=168

Just to be clear, this "OTS solution" literally shows a landfall on Bermuda.

[aspen]

Both the 12z GFS and 12z CMC have Paulette remain on the weaker side until 6-7 days out as it nears Bermuda and finds more favorable conditions to intensify. The GFS has a Category 3 hurricane in 9-10 days, which is too far out to take literally, but it suggests Paulette could have a better opportunity to strengthen down the road.

[gatorcane]

Gets close to Bermuda this run of the 12Z GFS. Animation starts at hour 132, the storms is well NE of the Lesser Antilles.

[SFLcane]

EPS sure is ominous for this TS. A huge westward shift.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF makes Paulette nearly into a major hurricane.

[LarryWx]

EPS sure is ominous for this TS. A huge westward shift.

Indeed! Here on this 216 hour map of the 12Z EPS, those just offshore the SE US, the TD over FL, and the H in the E GOM are from Paulette:

[CrazyC83]

I suspect these models now seen it too weak initially to influence Rene, escape then intensify north of the islands? Basically a Fran or Floyd scenario?

[Hurricane Mike]

GFS shows Paulette with a donut eye as a likely major hurricane near Bermuda in 7 days or so.

[TJRE]

6hrs between runs....... let the madness begin

[AutoPenalti]

https://imgur.com/45w2Sbu



6hrs between runs....... let the madness begin

Yikes. It’s still within the 10 day range, lots of model
shifts to come.

[ColdMiser123]

There really isn't too much room for error on the 18z GFS evolution for Paulette. A lobe rotating along the main trough axis is the primary reason it goes offshore this run. Can't assume that will happen 7-8 days out being in a very data sparse region.

[Nuno]

I suspect these models now seen it too weak initially to influence Rene, escape then intensify north of the islands? Basically a Fran or Floyd scenario?

I could see that as a possibility. I think we'll get further west shifts before recurvature as the models get a better grip on the interaction between Paulette and Rene, which was obviously overdone. I'm curious what next set of ensembles will show, they've been creeping westwards already.

[aspen]

https://imgur.com/45w2Sbu



6hrs between runs....... let the madness begin

Yeah...that’s a wee bit too close for comfort on the 18z rum.

[TJRE]

more fuel to the fire
GEFS 12Z 18z ENS.....comp

Can I say, slower and farther south????

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90718&fh=6

[SFLcane]

Ridge to the north..

[SFLcane]

Blocked..

[TJRE]

Blocked..

https://i.imgur.com/4I4hdcB.png

When G.U.N.T.H.E.R. speaks I listen

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Blocked..

https://i.imgur.com/4I4hdcB.png

I have my doubts. We saw with Laura the EPS can incorrectly display the ridge as being too strong.

This one screams OTS to me. Bermuda threat at most.

[AutoPenalti]

There really isn't too much room for error on the 18z GFS evolution for Paulette. A lobe rotating along the main trough axis is the primary reason it goes offshore this run. Can't assume that will happen 7-8 days out being in a very data sparse region.

Pretty much, but it does show the evolution of a stronger ridge compared to its prior runs. Which isn’t really good news to be quite honest.