ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 41.5W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 41.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and
this motion is forecast to continue into Monday. By late Monday and
Tuesday, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected, and that
motion should continue into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020

The tropical low that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking the past few days west of the Cabo Verde Islands has
developed enough convective banding for the system to be classified
as a tropical depression. A 06/2345Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
indicated surface wind speeds of 30-31 kt north of the center, which
are supported by a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB at 07/0000 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04kt. The center has
been jumping around somewhat due to small, brief convective bursts
that then dissipate, leaving small swirls rotating around the mean
circulation center. However, the latest ASCAT data showed a much
better defined overall circulation, especially in the inner core
wind field region, so the forward motion should stabilize fairly
soon. The depression is expected to remain caught in weak steering
flow for the next 5 days, so only a slow westward motion is expected
tonight and Monday, followed by a west-northwestward motion by later
Monday and Tuesday that will continue through the remainder of the
120-h forecast period. Possible track forecast complications could
develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the
depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining
as much latitude as currently indicated. The NHC forecast track lies
down the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus model
guidance envelope.

The depression is only forecast to slowly strengthen for the next 4
days or so due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air. By day
5, increasing southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of a
large upper-level low that is forecast to cut off north of Puerto
Rico is expected to induce gradual weakening. However, both the
timing of the development of the low and its west-southwestward
motion will determine if sufficient shear will prevent further
strengthening after 96 h; a slower formation of the low and/or a
slower retrograding motion would result in at least less weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows an average of the IVCN
and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 17.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 17.5N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 20.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 21.2N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 42.1W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 42.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days with a gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Tropical Depression Seventeen is a large tropical cyclone, with its
circulation evident several hundred miles from its center. An area
of deep convection has developed tonight just over and to the east
of its center with cloud top temperatures as low as -80 degrees C.
However, there appears to be some dry air in the northwestern
portion of the cyclone's circulation limiting convection there. The
latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt.

The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt
over the past 12 hours. This general motion is expected to continue
throughout the 5-day forecast period, with some increase in
forward speed over the next couple of days as the cyclone is
steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. The overall
guidance shifted slightly to the north through day 3 and the latest
NHC forecast lies in between the previous one and the consensus
track guidance through this time period. For days 3 through 5, the
forecast track is little changed from the previous one and is in
good agreement with the fairly tightly clustered track guidance.

Other than some dry air in the vicinity of the depression, the
overall environment looks favorable for strengthening over the next
few days. However, due to the large size of the circulation,
strengthening may occur more slowly than what might be expected from
a more compact cyclone. Therefore, only gradual strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast during that time. By 72 h,
increasing vertical wind shear should limit further intensification,
and may cause some weakening to occur. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the previous one and the HFIP corrected
consensus, HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.3N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 42.2W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 42.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A general
weest-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster
speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Modest additional strengthening is expected
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation
of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However,
the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were
present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity
estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020
Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm
of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe,
which formed on September 17, 2005.

Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to
have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in
both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear
and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most
of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is
likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the
models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly
decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly
shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to
deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The
official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model
consensus.

Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume
shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the
western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact
speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the
guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through
the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets,
the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level
trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track
forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.2N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 42.4W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion
toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight.
Paulette is then forecast to move a little faster and generally
westward on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Modest strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Recent visible imagery shows that Paulette's circulation has become
better defined since this morning. There has also been some evidence
of increased banding, however the tropical storm remains sheared,
with deep convection occuring primarily in its northeast quadrant.
Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from just below to
just above the 35-kt intensity estimate.

The NHC forecast still calls for modest strengthening over the next
day or two, and this seems like a good bet given the recent observed
improvement of Paulette's organization and structure. Moderate shear
and some surrounding dry air appear to be inhibiting factors for
substantial intensification, though the HWRF is a notable outlier
that forecasts Paulette to become a hurricane in about 48 h. No
major changes to the official intensity forecast were required at
this time, and the NHC forecast is between the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.

Paulette appears to have moved slowly toward the northwest during
the past several hours. The guidance spread has increased a little,
though the models all have the same general idea. For the next 12 to
24 hours, Paulette will be embedded in an area of weak steering
flow, though reformations of the center closer to the convection
could result in a northwest to north-northwestward motion. A
mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central
North Atlantic in a day or two and this should cause Paulette to
turn back toward the west. The NHC forecast is slightly north of the
previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 17.5N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 42.5W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 42.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is
forecast to turn toward the northwest and move faster on Tuesday,
and move west-northwestward or westward on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the day or
two, with little change in strength expected afterward through
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Satellite images show that Paulette continues to become better
organized, with a more symmetric presentation and very deep
convection near or just north of the center. The initial wind speed
is increased to 40 kt, a little higher than recent subjective Dvorak
estimates, but close to the objective estimates and the UW-CIMSS
satellite consensus. Further strengthening is expected during the
next day or so while the storm remains in a warm SST and
low-to-moderate shear environment. By midweek, some weakening is
forecast due to an increase in shear from an enhanced mid-oceanic
upper-level trough. There's a fair amount of uncertainty on how
quickly the tropical cyclone moves across the trough axis, which
would then allow Paulette to find an area of lighter shear, plus
very warm water, by the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast is slightly higher in the short-term, and lower in the
day-4 period just before the environment is forecast to improve.

Paulette appears to be moving slowly north-northwestward this
evening. A mid-level ridge is likely to build over the western and
central North Atlantic in a day or two, and this pattern should
cause Paulette to move faster toward the northwest tomorrow, and
west-northwestward or westward through late week. A turn back
toward the west-northwest or northwest is possible over the weekend
as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the ridge. This is
not a particularly certain forecast because the track models aren't
in good agreement, perhaps linked to the strength of Paulette, and
there is significant spread in the various ensemble guidance. With
no clear trends to rely on, and since the new model consensus came
in very close to the previous NHC forecast, the new NHC track
prediction is basically unchanged from the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 17.8N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.4N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.2N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.9N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 20.5N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 20.9N 49.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

...PAULETTE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 42.8W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 42.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and should continue
in this general motion with a faster forward speed later today,
then move west-northwestward Wednesday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, with little change in strength expected afterward
through Thursday. Some weakening is expected Thursday evening and
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

GOES-16 Proxy-VIS and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveals
that Paulette's cloud pattern has continued to improve during the
past several hours. Specifically, the developing inner core is
much more symmetric with new bursts of deep convection (-76C cloud
tops) near the surface circulation center. Subsequently, subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates support an initial
intensity of 45 kt.

The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance
indicate increasing southwesterly shear commencing later today.
So, only modest strengthening is shown in the NHC foreast during
next 24 hours. On Friday, the shear stiffens and becomes less
diffluent as the cyclone approaches the high amplitude mid-Atlantic
TUTT. Therefore, Gradual weakening is expected to occur at that
time. Beyond day 3, there are some mixed signals, specifically in
the GFS/FV3 and ECMWF SHIPS output. The GFS/FV3 continues to
indicate strong southwesterly shear through day 5 further weakening
Paulette to a depression around day 4. The ECMWF SHIPS, however,
shows a more southerly and diffluent upper wind pattern supporting
reintensification after day 4. The intensity forecast sides with
that latter solution and also agrees with the HCCA intensity
multi-model indicating the same intensity trend.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/5 kt.
The rather weak synoptic steering pattern consists of a large mid-
to upper-level low just west of the Canary Islands and ridging to
the northwest of the cyclone. During the next couple of days, the
large-scale models show the upper low filling and lifting
northeastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build in behind
the departing upper low from the western Atlantic. This change
in the pattern should cause Paulette to turn west-northwestward on
Wednesday and continue moving in this general motion through early
Saturday. Through the remaining portion of the period, the global
models indicate a major shortwave trough moving off of the
northeast coast of the U.S. and breaking down the western extent of
the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high. This growing weakness in the
ridge should cause Paulette to turn toward the northwest early
Sunday. The official track forecast is a little bit slower and to
the right of the previous forecast after day 3, and is close to the
various consensus aids.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 18.1N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

...PAULETTE CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 43.3W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2090 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 43.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest or west with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Moderate additional strengthening is possible today and
Paulette could be near hurricane strength by tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

Paulette's organization has noticeably improved since last night.
The tropical storm is still sheared, with its outflow restricted to
the southwest, however overnight AMSU imagery indicated that
convection was beginning to wrap around the western portion of its
circulation. The intensity estimate has been increased to 55 kt
based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Paulette has manged to strengthen despite the shear, and some
additional short-term strengthening is certainly possible. It is not
out of the question that Paulette could become a hurricane, at least
briefly. The global models indicate that the shear will increase on
Wednesday, which should cause Paulette's intensity to level off,
and more likely, decrease. The NHC intensity forecast is just above
the intensity consensus for the first 3 days, out of respect for
Paulette's recent intensification above most of the guidance. By the
weekend, Paulette's strength will heavily depend on its exact
orientation relative to an upper-level low that is expected to be
located west or southwest of the tropical storm. Some
restrengthening could occur then, but the NHC forecast just shows a
steady intensity, near the middle of the guidance suite.

Paulette is forecast to turn generally west-northwestward or
westward tonight and Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds to its
north. The guidance then indicates that late this week Paulette
will turn northwestward when the ridge weakens. Differences in
Paulette's forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday could result in
a very different track late in the period since it affects the
point at which the tropical storm will turn northwestward. The NHC
forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus throughout the
5-day period, but confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h is lower
than normal due to high spread in the track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 18.4N 43.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.8N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 20.3N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 20.6N 49.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 20.7N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 21.2N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.1N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 26.0N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

...PAULETTE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 44.3W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 44.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster
motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected for the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and should continue
for a couple days thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

Shear has started to take a toll on Paulette's structure. Convection
is again primarily limited to the northeast quadrant with little
signs of banding. It is certainly possible that convection will
expand again tonight when Paulette is farther removed from the
diurnal convective minimum, but for the moment it does not look like
further intensification is imminent. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB are still T-3.5/55 kt, and that is the basis for the
intensity estimate.

If convection does increase tonight, Paulette will have a brief
window for further strengthening before an expected increase in
southerly shear on Wednesday. At a minimum, Paulette's intensity
should then level off, and it will probably begin to weaken. Later
this week or over the weekend Paulette will have an opportunity to
restrengthen, depending on its interaction with an upper-level low
expected to be just west of the cyclone. The spread in the guidance
at that point is very high ranging from near dissipation to a
category 2 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged
for now, but Paulette could certainly be much stronger or weaker
over the weekend than currently forecast.

There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning, and
therefore little change to the track forecast itself. Paulette
should gradually turn westward by late Wednesday and then back
toward the northwest later this week as a ridge to its north builds
and weakens over the next several days. The model spread is high,
since there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how far
west Paulette will make it before it turns northwestward. Confidence
in the forecast beyond 72 h remains low. The NHC forecast track is
based heavily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.7N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

...PAULETTE IS A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 45.0W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly faster
motion toward the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday, a
westward motion is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back
toward the west-northwest or northwest by late Friday.

Satellite-derived data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast tomorrow, with slow weakening
anticipated on Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

Microwave and satellite data suggest that vertical shear is
weakening Paulette. The center is near the southern side of a large
thunderstorm cluster, with the bulk of deep convection in the
northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed
maximum winds of 45-50 kt, a little lower than the other satellite
estimates, and 50 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed.

With Paulette already on a weakening trend, it seems that the window
for significant strengthening has closed. More likely, a gradual
decay of the storm is anticipated due to moderate or strong shear
during the next few days. This shear could abate by the end of the
forecast period due to Paulette moving around the northeastern side
of a large mid-to-upper level low, which is a common position for
the re-intensification of a tropical cyclone after encountering the
mid-oceanic trough. The new forecast is lowered from the previous
one for the first few days and then raised slightly at the longer
ranges. This is consistent with a blend of the intensity model
consensus, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance at
the end.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. There has been
some convergence of the model guidance during the next few days as
Paulette should move west-northwestward tomorrow and westward on
Thursday around a mid-level ridge. Thus, little change has been
made from the previous forecast during the first 48-72h. Afterwards,
the forecast is shifted to the north by 45-60 n mi under the
assumption that Paulette stays coherent as a tropical cyclone and
takes a turn to the northwest this weekend on the eastern flank of
the aforementioned mid-to-upper level low. The new track forecast
is northeast of the model consensus and places less emphasis on
models, like the 12Z ECMWF, which show Paulette staying weaker and
missing the full influence of the low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...SHEARED PAULETTE JOGS TO THE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 45.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.6 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster
motion toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed
by a temporary westward motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the
west-northwest is expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening
anticipated on Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

The 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear continues to have a significant
impact on Paulette's inner core. A 0615 UTC Global Precipitation
Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager overpass showed a severely
sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed surface circulation
displaced to the south of the cloud canopy. Although the
objective ADT and an earlier SATCON analysis yield 45 kt, The
initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory in
deference to last night's scatterometer pass showing a few 50 kt
winds.

In addition to the moderate, persistent shear, the RAMMB/CIRA
Average Vertical Instability parameter time series analysis
revealed a higher than normal (1995-2010) statically stable
environment, another potential inhibiting factor. This was further
supported by the statistical-dynamical intensity models showing
a rather parched mid-troposphere (less than 58%). Therefore,
slow weakening of Paulette is forecast during the next few days.
Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity
models continue to indicate a more southerly, diffluent pattern
which should aid in some restrengthening, and this is indicated in
the NHC forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt.
Paulette should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on
Thursday around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge
to the northeast of the cyclone. A turn northwestward is predicted
on Saturday as Paulette moves further into a growing weakness in
the ridge over the western Atlantic. The official forecast is an
update of the previous one through 72 hrs, then is shifted to the
left through day 5 to lies between the HCCA consensus and the
the HFIP/NUOPC Project's 5EMN 133 member multi-model ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 46.5W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Morning visible satellite images show that Paulette's center is
located beneath a thin veil of cirrus and displaced to the south of
the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB, and a recent ASCAT pass which showed an area of
45-50 kt winds northwest of the center, the initial intensity
remains 50 kt. A large upper-level trough is located to the
northwest of Paulette, and this feature is producing 20-30 kt of
south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone. The shear is forecast
to increase well over 30 kt during the next day or two as Paulette
gets closer to the upper-level disturbance, which should cause the
cyclone's maximum winds to gradually decrease through day 3. The
shear is forecast to abate somewhat and back around from the
southeast by days 4 and 5, which could allow Paulette to
restrengthen a little bit over the subtropical Atlantic at that
time. The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous
one and is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the
HCCA corrected consensus.

Although Paulette has been hopscotching around a bit, likely being
influenced by the sheared convection, the 12-hour motion is now
toward the west-northwest (290/8 kt). Subtropical ridging to the
north of Paulette is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward or
west-northwestward trajectory for the next 48 hours. After that
time, the ridge is likely to weaken a bit, which should allow
Paulette to move toward the northwest with some increase in forward
speed on days 3 though 5. There is a typical amount of spread
among the track models for this forecast, and while they all agree
on the general future trajectory, there are some speed differences.
In particular, the UKMET and HWRF start out much slower than the
other models, and the ECWMF is much faster than the rest of the
guidance by days 4 and 5. Relying on continuity and the model
consensus aids, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted
very little from the previous prediction.

The initial and forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii have been
expanded based on the recent scatterometer data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 20.7N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 20.9N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 22.2N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...PAULETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT COULD
THEN RESTRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 47.4W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 47.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion
toward the west or west-northwest is expected through Friday. A
northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Paulette's satellite presentation has not changed since this
morning, with the center exposed just to the south of the deepest
convection. Between this morning's ASCAT pass and the most recent
satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are unchanged at
T3.0 and T3.5, respectively, the maximum wind estimate remains 50
kt. Paulette continues to move into an area of stronger
southwesterly shear, which is now estimated to be 25-30 kt, and
this shear is likely to increase further to 30-35 kt within the
next 24 hours. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin
weakening by Thursday, and the NHC forecast is embedded among the
tightly clustered intensity guidance during the first 2-3 days.
The shear is expected to relax gradually from 48 hours and beyond
and turn out of the southeast, which should allow for some
restrengthening on days 3 through 5 when shear magnitudes could go
as low as 10 kt. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models in particular take
full advantage of this environment and bring Paulette to hurricane
intensity by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not
nearly this aggressive, but it does indicate a little more
strengthening at the end of the forecast period than has been shown
in previous forecasts, lying closest to the statistical-dynamical
guidance. Model environmental trends will be monitored, and
additional intensity adjustments at the end of the forecast period
will be made accordingly in subsequent forecasts.

Paulette remains on a west-northwestward course (295/9 kt), located
to the south of low- to mid-level ridging which extends across the
central and western Atlantic. The track models suggest that when
the cyclone weakens in a day or two, lower-level winds could steer
the cyclone westward for a short time. However, a combination of
the ridge weakening and Paulette's expected re-strengthening should
cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in 2-3 days and maintain
that trajectory through the end of the forecast period. The only
significant change from the previous forecast is that the 5-day
forecast point has been shifted westward, with the GFS, ECMWF,
HWRF, and HCCA models all lying on the left side of the guidance
envelope by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.5N 47.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...PAULETTE MAINTAINING STRENGTH FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 48.1W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 48.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion
toward the west or west-northwest is expected through Friday. A
northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Paulette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level
center southwest of a large area of deep convection. Recent
scatterometer data showed peak winds of 45-50 kt, so 50 kt is used
as the initial wind speed, which happens to be quite similar to a
blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Paulette should
begin to weaken tomorrow and continue on a downward trend for 2-3
days as strong shear impacts the cyclone. No change has been made
to the forecast through Saturday. Thereafter, the storm is likely to
move into a lower-shear environment on the northeastern side of a
mid/upper-level low, with SSTs rising to about 29C. There is better
agreement among the models tonight that Paulette will survive the
shear and be able to take advantage of that favorable environment.
In fact, almost all of the most reliable guidance, save LGEM/SHIPS,
show the storm becoming a hurricane by 120 hours, and the global
models are trending in that direction. The new NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one, near the model consensus, but isn't
quite as high as the regional hurricane models.

The storm is moving at about the same motion as before (295/9 kt).
Paulette should turn westward tomorrow as it weakens and encounters
stronger low/mid-level ridging. A weakness in the ridge develops by
the weekend due to the aforementioned mid/upper-level low, which
should cause the tropical cyclone to turn and move faster toward
the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one, lying on the western side of the guidance after
placing heavier weight on the global models and corrected-consensus
aids than on the regional hurricane guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 20.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 21.3N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 21.4N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 22.8N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 25.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...
...RESTRENGTHENING FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 49.0W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 49.0 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A
northwestward motion should begin Friday evening and continue into
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Restrengthening is expected to commence over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Although Paulette's center of circulation has separated farther
south from the cloud mass during the past several hours, the
cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection consisting of
-79C cold cloud tops. Earlier scatterometer data indicated surface
winds of 45-50 kt in this region of coldest cloud tops, so it's
reasonable to think that those winds are still present. Therefore,
the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.

Both the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the shear
magnitude increasing to 35-40 kt today. As a result, Paulette is
expected to begin weakening by this evening. Over the weekend,
however, the shear is forecast to decrease gradually and shift from
the southeast and become a bit more diffluent, which should allow
for reintensification. Several of the skilled intensity guidance,
including the aforementioned SHIPS, and the consensus models, HCCA
and IVCN, now show Paulette as a hurricane in 4 days, or sooner
(COAMPS-TC). The official intensity forecast is once again
adjusted upward, and lies between the HCCA (a little higher) and
the Decay SHIPS intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
290/9 kt and Paulette should continue in this general motion
through Friday as a mid-tropospheric ridge temporarily builds over
the central Atlantic in response to a mid- to upper-level trough,
extending southwestward from the Azores Islands, weakening and
lifting northeastward. By Saturday morning, a break in the
aforementioned ridge develops due to a combination of mid- to
upper-level low situated to the northwest of the cyclone and a
mid-latitude shortwave trough moving off of the northeast U.S.
This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the northwest with an increase in
forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous
advisory, but a little faster beyond 48 hours, and is shifted to
the left, closer to the HCCA and TVCN consensus models at days 4
and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 20.9N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 21.8N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 22.8N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 25.7N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.1N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 29.7N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 32.0N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...PAULETTE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...
...OCEAN SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected
during the next day or so, but Paulette is then forecast to
restrengthen by Saturday. Paulette could become a hurricane by
Sunday or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

The highest winds in a recent scatterometer pass have decreased a
little since last evening, and they remain embedded within deep
convection which is displaced to the north of the center of
circulation. Paulette's intensity is estimated to have decreased
to 45 kt based on this ASCAT pass and Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45
kt from both TAFB and SAB.

The sheared convection has been tugging Paulette's center northward
at times, causing wobbles in the estimated longer-term
west-northwestward motion of 295/9 kt. For the next 4 days or so,
fluctuations in the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north
of Paulette will cause the cyclone's trajectory to vary between
west-northwest and northwest, with a peak in forward speed around
day 3. At the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough is
expected to move across the northeastern United States, with a
mid-tropospheric high becoming established over the central
Atlantic. This should allow Paulette to begin to recurve over the
western Atlantic, turning northward by day 5. The only notable
change in the track guidance on this cycle was a slight westward
shift among some of the models on days 4 and 5, and the NHC track
forecast follows suit, lying close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
(HCCA) aid.

Southwesterly shear has increased over the cyclone as expected, with
the latest UW-CIMSS analysis now between 35 and 40 kt. SHIPS
diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about
12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next
day or so. The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both
the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear
magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days. This more
favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and
sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected
to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it
moves in the vicinity of Bermuda. The new NHC intensity forecast
has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous
prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus,
IVCN, and the HCCA solutions. Therefore, additional upward
adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 21.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
...OCEAN SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 50.1W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 50.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is expected during the next day or so, but
Paulette is then forecast to restrengthen by Saturday. Paulette
is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT2 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Continuous bursts of deep convection have been ongoing to the north
and northeast of Paulette's center of circulation, with the cyclone
being affected by nearly 40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear.
The highest intensity estimates are Dvorak classifications of
T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that value remains the initial
intensity. The shear should reach its peak magnitude this evening,
which is likely to cause Paulette to weaken slightly during the
next 24 hours. However, gradual re-strengthening is forecast to
begin in about 36 hours, and the rate of intensification is expected
to increase in 2 to 3 days when the shear could fall to 10 kt or
less, along with a more unstable atmosphere and warmer sea surface
temperatures. Paulette is now forecast to become a hurricane by day
3 and continue to intensify through the end of the forecast period.
As was advertised in the previous forecast package, the new NHC
forecast intensities have been bumped up on days 3 through 5 and
now lie near or just below the IVCN intensity consensus and the
HCCA corrected consensus aid.

Paulette's heading over the past 6-12 hours has been toward the
west-northwest, or 300/8 kt. The cyclone's trajectory is expected
to oscillate between northwest and west-northwest for the next 4
days, being dictated by the strength of the subtropical ridge to
the north and the depth of the steering flow depending on
Paulette's intensity. The updated NHC track forecast during this
period has been nudged a bit to the north, mostly to account for an
adjustment of the initial position. The model guidance all agree
that Paulette should turn northward around the western side of a
central Atlantic high pressure area by day 5, with the expected
hurricane likely to make a tight recurvature near Bermuda. There
remains some uncertainty on exactly where that turn will occur, but
for now the NHC forecast lies between the tighter-turning ECMWF and
HCCA models and the more gradually-turning GFS and HWRF models.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and
Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity
near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 22.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 23.6N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 55.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 26.6N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 28.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.2N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 31.5N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 34.5N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...PAULETTE FOUND TO BE STRONGER AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1075 MI...1735 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Recently received satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Friday. Gradual
strengthening is expected to begin Friday night, and Paulette is
forecast to become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT2 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Paulette has been fighting off intense vertical wind shear, which is
analyzed by UW-CIMSS to be on the order of 35-40 kt out of the
southwest. Deep convection with cold cloud tops of -70 to -80
degrees C have persisted near and to the northeast of the center
throughout the evening. A late arriving ASCAT overpass revealed that
Paulette is stronger than previously analyzed, with believable wind
vectors of 50-55 kt in the northeastern quadrant. There were some
values even higher than these. However, the ASCAT ambiguities and
satellite imagery suggest most of those are either rain contaminated
or too close to the edge of the ASCAT pass to be trustworthy.
Nonetheless, the other values indicate that the initial intensity is
now at least 55 kt.

The SHIPS guidance suggests that the current shear over Paulette
will begin to gradually decrease tomorrow and continue to decrease
into the weekend. By late Saturday the guidance indicates the shear
could fall to 10 kt or less. By that time, the cyclone is forecast
to be traversing over waters with SSTs near 29 C. The only negative
environmental factor could be some dry air in the vicinity of the
system. However that same dry air has not seemed to have that much
of an effect on Paulette as of late. With shear expected to remain
fairly strong the next 24 h, no strengthening is anticipated during
that time. After 24 h, Paulette should gradually intensify into
early next week. The NHC intensity forecast for this advisory has
been increased across the board. In the near term this change is due
to the adjusted initial intensity. Beyond 24 h, the latest NHC
forecast is close to a blend of the multi-model consensus values,
including the HFIP corrected consensus and the Florida State
Superensemble.

Paulette is now moving northwest, or 305/09 kt. There is no change
to the forecast track reasoning from the previous advisory. The
forecast models are in good agreement between a generally northwest
to west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone
is steered around a subtropical ridge to its north. Around day 4,
about the same time the system would be making its closest approach
to Bermuda, a turn to the northeast is expected as the system
rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the
tracks of the various consensus aids. It should be noted that there
is sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon
to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early
next week.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and
Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity
near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 23.4N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 24.6N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 30.0N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 35.0N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 51.7W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 51.7 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest is expected for the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual
strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Saturday, and
Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands today and will continue to spread westward
to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette continues to experience the effects of 35-40 kt of
southwesterly vertical shear, which has caused the center to
occasionally become exposed to the south and southwest of the
primary convective bursts. Since the various satellite intensity
estimates are unchanged since the last scatterometer overpass, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt. However, this could be a
little generous.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. There is
little change to either the forecast track philosophy or the
forecast track from the last advisory. The track guidance models
remain in good agreement between a generally northwest to
west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone
is steered by the subtropical ridge to its north and northeast.
Around day 4, the cyclone is expected to recurve into the
westerlies through a break in the ridge, with this turn to the
northeast expected at about the time of closest approach to
Bermuda. The new forecast track lies close to the various
consensus models. It should be noted that there is still
sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon
to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early
next week.

The global models are in reasonable agreement that the shear over
Paulette should subside, although it may be another 24 h before it
subsides enough that significant strengthening can occur. After
that, conditions should be favorable for strengthening until the
system again encounters strong upper-level winds near 120 h after
recurvature. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that
Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane during this time and reach a
peak intensity in about 96 h, and the new intensity forecast has
only minor changes from the previous forecast. The new forecast is
close to, but a little weaker than the various intensity consensus
models.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and
Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity
near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 23.1N 51.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.9N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.3N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 26.8N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 28.2N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 29.5N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 30.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 52.2W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 52.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or west-northwest with some increase in forward speed
is expected through early Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Despite what is being analyzed as roughly 40 kt of deep-layer
southwesterly shear, Paulette's center is embedded beneath the
cirrus canopy of a strong convective burst to the north. Recent
microwave images do confirm, however, that the center remains
displaced from the convection. We have not yet received new
scatterometer data over Paulette, and since the structure has not
degraded from overnight, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. This
is in best agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

Paulette appears to have turned toward the northwest (305/9 kt)
based on center fixes over the past 12 hours. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge is beginning to develop to the north of Paulette,
which should allow the cyclone to maintain a motion toward the
northwest or west-northwest during the next 3 days. After that
time, a longwave trough forecast to move across the northeastern
United States is expected to erode the ridge eastward, causing
Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the
vicinity of Bermuda on days 4 and 5. Except for some minor speed
differences, the track models agree on this general trajectory and
have less east-to-west spread during the recurvature phase than
they did yesterday. The GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble aids all lie along the western side of the guidance
envelope at the time of recurvature, and as a result the new NHC
track has been nudged a little west of the previous prediction
during that period in deference to those normally reliable models.

The shear affecting Paulette is forecast to abate over the next 48
hours while the storm also moves over warmer ocean waters and into
a more unstable environment. Given the cyclone's hardiness in the
face of the ongoing shear, Paulette is unlikely to have problems
responding to the improving environment. Paulette is now forecast
to become a hurricane in 36 hours, which is supported by the latest
dynamical hurricane models, the superensemble aids, and the IVCN
intensity consensus. Continued strengthening is anticipated after
36 hours, with Paulette likely to reach a peak intensity in 4-5
days.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday.
While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the
island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 23.6N 52.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 53.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. A
hurricane watch could be required for the island tonight or early
Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 53.7 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or west-northwest is expected through Sunday night,
followed by a sharp turn toward the north by late Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette should be near Bermuda Sunday
night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette inconveniently fell in a gap between all three ASCAT
passes this morning, so we haven't gotten any better handle on the
cyclone's intensity since last evening's pass. However, Dvorak
classifications have not budged, so maintaining the initial
intensity of 55 kt seems sound. In addition, although an AMSR
microwave pass from around 17 UTC still showed the system being
sheared, it also revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature. Since
the shear is expected to abate to less than 10 kt by 48 hours,
Paulette is likely to intensify, possibly significantly so, and it
is now forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The
intensification trend is expected to continue through day 4, and
Paulette has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane when it
makes its closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. Paulette's
forecast peak intensity (on day 4) has been nudged up slightly,
lying near the SHIPS and HCCA guidance, but still a little below
the latest HWRF simulation.

Paulette has picked up some speed and is now moving toward the
northwest (310 degrees) at 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning
has not changed since this morning. Paulette should maintain a
motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 2 to
3 days to the south of a weakening subtropical ridge. By day 3, a
longwave trough is forecast to move across the northeastern
United States, eroding the ridge eastward, and causing Paulette to
recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of
Bermuda on Monday. After that time, Paulette is forecast to become
embedded in the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northeastward
toward the north Atlantic. The spread in the track guidance has
continued to tighten up, which increases the confidence in the
official track forecast. The updated forecast has been shifted
slightly westward around the time that Paulette will be near
Bermuda, and it is embedded among the usually-reliable GFS, ECMWF,
and HCCA model solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane during
the next couple of days and make its closest approach to the island
on Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more
likely, and a hurricane watch could be required for the island
tonight or early Saturday.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
BEFORE IT NEARS BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 54.8W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 54.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected for through the weekend, followed by
a turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is
forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated
and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in that area late Sunday or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette remains sheared and asymmetric, with all its deep
convection north of its low-level center of circulation. Despite the
shear, ASCAT-B data that just arrived showed maximum winds near or
just over 55 kt. Since that instrument tends to under-sample the
maximum winds, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

An upper-level low located to the west of Paulette is responsible
for the southerly shear currently affecting the cyclone. Global
model forecasts suggest that the shear will continue for another day
or so, and only slight strengthening is likely through that period.
By Sunday, the upper-level low will move farther southwest and the
tropical cyclone will encounter a very favorable upper-air pattern.
Paulette will likely strengthen further in response, possibly at a
fast rate. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Paulette
will be a hurricane when it nears Bermuda early Monday, and it could
approach major hurricane strength early next week. The NHC intensity
forecast has not changed since the last advisory. It is worth
mentioning that Paulette could experience a period of slow
development for the next 24 hours, followed by quick
intensification, rather than the more steady strengthening shown by
the NHC forecast. It is also important to note that the average NHC
intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which
Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda.

Paulette has jogged slightly right of track during the past few
hours, but the overall NHC forecast track is not different from the
previous advisory. A building mid-level ridge to the north of
Paulette will likely steer the tropical storm generally
west-northwestward or northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The
cyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in
that direction ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The model spread
remains relatively low, especially for the first few days.
Confidence is high that Paulette will move near Bermuda early
Monday, though it is still too soon to specify exactly how close it
will get. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids and is not far from any of the global model forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming
more likely. A tropical storm watch is in effect and a hurricane
watch could be required for the island early Saturday.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 25.8N 54.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
SATURDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 55.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 55.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a
turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is forecast
to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is
forecast to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in that area late Sunday or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 56.1W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
and a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a
turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday
evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is
forecast to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions
could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone's cloud
pattern has improved during the past several hours and that Paulette
maybe on the cusp of becoming a hurricane very soon. An Advanced
Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass suggested that the
cyclone has a much less vertical tilt and deep convective banding
is developing in the south and east portions of Paulette. The
subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers haven't
changed from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 60
kt.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals some decrease in the shear
magnitude and the upper wind pattern has become much more
diffluent. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS and the large-scale models indicate
that the shear will relax soon, and Paulette should become a
hurricane today and further strengthen to a major hurricane early
Tuesday. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical model indicates this
scenario occuring earlier, Monday evening. The official intensity
forecast is nudged slightly higher than the previous one and is
close to the the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach intensity
model. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity
errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette
will likely be nearest to Bermuda.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge/Bermuda high north of the cyclone should
continue to build across the western Atlantic and steer Paulette
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a turn toward
the northwest to north-northwest with a significant increase in
forward speed is expected early Monday and Monday evening in
response to an approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough.
The track guidance suite remains tightly clustered with just some
minor forward speed differences beyond day 3, so it's quite certain
that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it's a
little too early to specify the exact closest approach. The NHC
track forecast is close to the previous advisory and once again is
based on the various multi-model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming
increasingly likely. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane
watch have been issued for the island.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 26.8N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 56.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday
evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Paulette is forecast to
become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions
could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg