BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN....
SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 21.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 21.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease
in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south
are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward
motion is forecast to begin by late this week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low by Wednesday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection,
there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C
encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given
the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin
causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained
as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear
near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are
expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of
Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result,
the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and
dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be
moving westward into westerly mid-level shear.
Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is
forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded
within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to
upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically
shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the
36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be
steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of
the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle
of the NHC track guidance models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 34.8N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN....
SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 21.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 21.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease
in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south
are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward
motion is forecast to begin by late this week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low by Wednesday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection,
there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C
encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given
the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin
causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained
as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear
near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are
expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of
Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result,
the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and
dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be
moving westward into westerly mid-level shear.
Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is
forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded
within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to
upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically
shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the
36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be
steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of
the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle
of the NHC track guidance models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 34.8N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart