ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121099
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:51 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN....


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 21.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 21.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease
in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south
are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward
motion is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low by Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection,
there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C
encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given
the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin
causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained
as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear
near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are
expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of
Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result,
the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and
dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be
moving westward into westerly mid-level shear.

Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is
forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded
within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to
upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically
shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the
36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be
steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of
the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle
of the NHC track guidance models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 34.8N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121099
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: PAULETTE - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020

...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 20.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 20.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19
km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through
midday Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns
to the southeast then south are expected late Wednesday through
Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late
this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is
expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-m ... randlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020

Paulette has been devoid of deep convection since early Tuesday,
and the shallow convection mentioned in the previous advisory has
also waned. Therefore, Paulette has again become a post-tropical
cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Recent
ASCAT data showed that the system still had a small area of 35 kt
winds so the initial intensity is held at that value. The
post-tropical cyclone will be moving over waters of 22-23 degrees
Celsius and remain within an area of moderate vertical wind
shear. This should result in gradual weakening over the next
couple of days.

The post-tropical cyclone continues to move eastward or 080/10 kt.
This motion is forecast to continue through midday Wednesday, but a
reduction is forward speed is expected by Wednesday night as the
system becomes vertically shallow. The remnant low is expected to
turn southward in 24-36 hours, with a faster west-southwestward
motion anticipated later in the forecast period when it becomes
embedded within the low-level northeasterly flow.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-ma ... randlarge/
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 34.8N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests