ATL: RENE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...RENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 44.4W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 44.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and
this general motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A
slower northwest to north-northwest motion is expected on Sunday and
Monday. A turn to the west-southwest is expected to occur by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow weakening is possible over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The deep convection associated with Rene has gradually decreased
over the past several hours, with only a few sporadic patches
remaining. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 28 kt in the
northeastern quadrant, while the latest Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB suggest the system is 30 kt. Therefore the initial
intensity is being lowered to 30 kt. The depression is forecast to
battle dry air for the next several days, with SHIPS guidance
indicating that the mid-level relative humidity will decrease to
under 40 percent in a few days. Also, it appears that there will be
increasing subsidence over the system starting in a couple of days
due to a ridge building to the northwest of the cyclone. Neither of
these conditions bode well for maintaining organized deep
convection. And, with it anticipated that the depression will
struggle to maintain convection it is expected to slowly spin down
over the next several days. The official forecast shows Rene
degenerating into a remnant low in 5 days, but that timing is low
confidence, as the system may generate just enough convection over
warm waters to continue to be classified as a tropical cyclone
longer than that. The alternative scenario is that the system could
become a remnant low or open into a trough even sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one mainly
due to the decrease in initial intensity, and is in good agreement
with the various intensity consensus values.

Rene continues to move northwestward, now at 11 kt. A northwestward
motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic should continue into tonight. On Sunday, Rene is
forecast to slow down as the ridge builds to the northwest and north
of the cyclone. By Tuesday, Rene is expected to turn westward and
then west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of the
building ridge. The NHC track forecast is very little changed from
the previous one, and is near the middle of the track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 23.2N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 24.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 26.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 27.0N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 27.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 26.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 25.0N 52.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...RENE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 45.6W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 45.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected by Sunday, and a slow
westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday,
the system is forecast to turn west-southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is possible over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

A fragmented band of deep convection has recently developed over the
northern portion of the circulation, but the associated cloud tops
are already warming, suggesting that dry air is continuing to hinder
development. Dvorak classifications of T2.0 (30 kt) from both TAFB
and SAB, and the earlier ASCAT data are the basis for the 30-kt
initial intensity. The depression is expected to remain within an
area of dry mid-level air and increasing west- northwesterly shear
on Sunday, and these factors are likely to contribute to gradual
weakening over the next couple of days. While the shear is
forecast to abate later in the period, the SHIPS guidance indicates
mid-level relative humidity values of 30-40 percent, which suggest
weakening is likely to continue. The global models also weaken the
system with the UK and ECMWF showing dissipation within 4-5 days.
The new NHC intensity forecast is again lowered from before and now
calls for Rene to become a remnant low in 72 h and dissipate by day
5. Both of these events, however, could occur much sooner.

Rene is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. A blocking ridge of
high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene on
Sunday which is expected to considerably slow the forward progress
of the cyclone. As the ridge continues to shift eastward and
build, Rene or its remnants are forecast to turn west-southwestward
in the low-level steering flow early next week. The overall
guidance envelope as changed little from this morning, and the new
NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 24.3N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...RENE WEAKENS AND IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 46.4W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 46.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, and a slow
westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday,
the system is forecast to move west-southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and
is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Satellite images indicate that a band of convection has recently
increased on the western side of the circulation, otherwise the
center remains mostly exposed. The initial wind speed is reduced to
25 kt based on scatterometer data. The small cyclone is likely to
gradually spin down due to persistent moderate shear and a fairly
dry environment. The hostile conditions are not likely to change
too much, so Rene is forecast to lose all convection in a day or two
and become a remnant low. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one due to the weaker initial intensity and
follows the latest global model consensus.

The depression is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. A blocking
ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or
Rene, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward and
west-southwestward early next week. The guidance is similar to the
previous package, and no significant track changes were made to the
official NHC forecast. The forecast still might hold onto the
circulation too long, and the remnant low could dissipate into a
trough of low pressure sooner than indicated below.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 25.3N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 26.4N 47.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 27.3N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 27.4N 48.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z 27.2N 49.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1200Z 26.5N 50.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 47.1W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 47.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected later today, and a slow
westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday,
the system is forecast to move west-southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and
is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Rene is producing a round of disorganized convection at this time,
with the convection now displaced to the east of the center by
increasing west-northwesterly vertical shear. The initial
intensity remains 25 kt based on a combination of satellite
intensity estimates and continuity from the previous advisory. The
strong shear and a dry environment should lead to Rene degenerating
to a remnant low pressure area between 24-36 h, with the global
models in good agreement that the remnant low should weaken to a
trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous forecast.

The initial motion is 325/12. A blocking ridge of high pressure is
forecast to build to the northwest or Rene during the next day or
two, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward.
After that time, a west-southwestward motion is expected as Rene or
its remnants are steered by a combination of the ridge and the
circulation of Tropical Depression 20 to the southeast. There is
little change to either the track guidance or the forecast track
from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 26.2N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...POORLY ORGANIZED RENE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 47.6W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 47.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected by tonight. By late Monday
through Tuesday, the system is forecast to move southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rene should slowly weaken over the next couple of days and
is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Sporadic small areas of convection continue to fire off around the
circulation of Rene, only to dissipate shortly thereafter. A recent
ASCAT overpass showed an area of 20 to 25 kt winds in the eastern
semicircle. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 25 kt. The
dry environment surrounding Rene will only get drier over the next
couple of days. That, along with increasing subsidence over the
cyclone should eventually cause Rene to become a remnant low. There
is no change to the previous forecast intensity or timing of the
system becoming a remnant low, which is consistent with the global
models.

Rene is beginning to slow down as a ridge starts to build to the
north and northwest of the cyclone. This slowing trend should
continue through tonight. Late Monday through Tuesday, a turn to the
west then southwest should occur as whatever remains of the system
becomes steered by the larger circulation of Tropical Depression
Twenty to its southwest. There is little change to the previous
track forecast, and the latest NHC forecast lies near the various
multi-model track consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 26.8N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 27.6N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 27.3N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0000Z 26.1N 51.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...RENE STILL PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND THERE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 47.6W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 47.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9
km/h). Rene is forecast to begin moving slowly westward
and then southwestward during the next two or three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated. Rene is forecast to become a
remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Rene continues to produce occasional small bursts of deep
convection, most recently to the north of its surface center. Both
the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications indicated that convection at
18Z was insufficient to classify the system, an indication that the
few pop up thunderstorms are not sufficiently organized to classify
the system as a tropical cyclone. That said, convection has
increased a little since that time and there is a possibility that
deep convection could increase further this evening. While Rene is
still a tropical depression for the moment, if its convection does
not persist, it could become a remnant low as soon as tonight.

Only very small changes were made to the NHC track and intensity
forecasts. Rene's forward speed has continued to slow down since
this morning. The shallow cyclone should make a westward and then
southwestward turn during the next day or two, steered by a building
low-level ridge to the north. Regardless of its exact status, Rene
will probably continue to produce only a few small disorganized
bursts of convection for the next few days while its circulation
gradually spins down. Surrounding dry air and large-scale subsidence
will likely prevent the redevelopment of more signifcant shower or
thunderstorm activity. Most of the dynamical guidance indicates that
Rene will open into a trough of low pressure within about 72 h, if
not sooner and the NHC forecast shows likewise.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.3N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 27.4N 48.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/0600Z 26.9N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 26.3N 50.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0600Z 25.7N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 47.9W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 47.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this
motion is forecast to continue tonight. A faster motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin Monday and
continue through dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low
on Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Rene continues to produced puffs of deep convection that are
continually being sheared away by nearly 30 kt of westerly
shear. These brief convective bursts have not been sufficiently
organized to warrant a Dvorak classification for about 12 hours, so
if the convective organization does not increase soon, Rene could
become a remnant low tonight. Continued shear and a very dry
mid-level environment should result in Rene's remnants dissipating
by 60 hours, if not sooner.

Rene's forward speed has slowed since the last advisory, with a
westward drift of 270/02 the current estimate. The shallow cyclone
should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the
low-level flow by 24 hours and continue on that general motion until
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted south of the
previous one toward the new multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0000Z 26.9N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 26.2N 50.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...RENE JUST HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 48.3W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 48.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin
later today and continue through dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low
on later today, and dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Rene continues to produce just enough deep convection to keep it
from degenerating to a remnant low. However, it is expected to
degenerate later today due to the ongoing impact of strong
west-northwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment. The
initial intensity and the intensity forecast, which call for
dissipation by 60 h, are unchanged from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/3. The shallow
cyclone should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the
low-level flow by 12-24 hours and continue on that general motion
until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...RENE CONTINUES TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 48.3W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 48.3 West. The
depression is stationary. A motion toward the west-southwest or
southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through
dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low
tonight, and dissipate by late Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Deep convection continues to pulse over the eastern portion of
Rene's circulation, enough to maintain the system's status as a
tropical cyclone. However, recent visible statellite imagery
suggest that the circulation may not be as well defined as it was
yesterday. Satellite classifications support an initial
wind speed of 25 kt. Strong west-northwesterly shear and dry air
are expected to cause the depression to weaken and degenerate into
a remnant low within the next 12-24 hours. The global models show
the low-level circulation dissipating within 2 to 3 days and so
does the official forecast.

Rene has moved very little overnight but a west-southwestward or
southwestward motion within the low-level steering flow should
begin soon. That general motion is expected to continue until
dissipation in a day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


BULLETIN
Remnants Of Rene Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...RENE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 49.3W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Rene were located near
latitude 26.9 North, longitude 49.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general
motion will likely continue for another day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Winds associated with the remnants of Rene should gradually subside
during the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Remnants Of Rene Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Visible satellite imagery during the past few hours shows that Rene
has opened into a trough of low pressure and is no longer a tropical
cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory. The remnants of Rene
will likely move generally southwestward for the next day or two
while the associated winds slowly subside. Although the trough may
continue to produce occasional showers and thunderstorms, no
redevelopment of the system is expected.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 26.9N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF RENE
12H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky