ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2020090718, , BEST, 0, 299N, 672W, 20, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 160, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 041, SPAWNINVEST, al762020 to al942020,

[northjaxpro]

Kudos to Aric for being the first to spot this invest days ago.

This system will be interesting to.monitor late this week as it approaches the Southeast U.S. Coast.

[Steve]

^^ been in the models thread too. This is our next shot at a landfalling named storm. Icon vacillated a little between NEFL/GA/SC after it slowed the trough so the energy didn’t get swept up to the north of there. If 18z ICON is close, it looks like it again wants a system slightly strengthening at landfall - higher end TS there or possible 1.

[aspen]

Yet another name race, this time between 94L and future 95L for Sally. TCs really like coming in pairs this year. If 94L does develop, my bet is that it loses to 95L and becomes Teddy. The wave that’ll likely get designated 95L has been forecast by the models to quickly develop after exiting Africa. The models successfully predicted this for Rene, so maybe they’ll score two wins in a row.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a big pool of moisture it is heading into overnight and lower shear. it has a decent shot.

[northjaxpro]

Recon is scheduled to fly out Wednesday afternoon .

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is scheduled to fly out Wednesday afternoon .

makes sense.

wind field is already closed. it will be moving into a better environment. just needs some convection over the center and off we go..

anywhere from central florida the outer banks need to watch.

[aspen]

One thing we’ll need to watch out for is if 94L could end up stalling off of the coast, and not on it, before trying to curve away. That could prevent a US landfall but also raise the possibility of this becoming a hurricane.

[aspen]

Yet another name race, this time between 94L and future 95L for Sally. TCs really like coming in pairs this year. If 94L does develop, my bet is that it loses to 95L and becomes Teddy. The wave that’ll likely get designated 95L has been forecast by the models to quickly develop after exiting Africa. The models successfully predicted this for Rene, so maybe they’ll score two wins in a row.

Correction: if 94L develops, it’ll likely be before future 95L, because it will make landfall around the time the models expect the wave to develop.

[Hurricaneman]

My forecast for 94L

It’s getting better organized and heading for a lower shear environment, could make for a strong tropical storm or more near the SE coast

Now 20% of development
12hrs. 40% of development
24hrs. 80% of development
36hrs. TD 35mph
48hrs. TS. 45mph
60hrs. TS. 60mph near Myrtle Beach

[CrazyC83]

Does this have enough time to really run itself up? It's in an area that it could probably spin up pretty quickly.

[LarryWx]

Does this have enough time to really run itself up? It's in an area that it could probably spin up pretty quickly.

It looks to me like shear is still in control as any earlier convection near the east and south side of this has diminished as it has sheared away.

[Extratropical94]

30/40

An area of low pressure is located about 300 miles west-southwest of
Bermuda. Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with the low
has increased since last night, but remains somewhat disorganized.
Gradual additional development of this system is possible during the
next two or three days and it could become a tropical depression
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward. Interests
along the southeast coast of the U.S. should monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

NIce convective burst southern side of the llc.

it has been in a region of sinking air the last 24 hours but that is changing as you can see the more west it moves.

shear is dropping and upper divergence is increasing.

if it is going to start popping more convection today will be the day and it will give us an indication of development chances.

it has a pretty good chance to develop if convection maintains today.

[LarryWx]

Shear is still dominating as I see convection remains concentrated on the E portion.

[Emmett_Brown]

06Z GFS shows shear reducing quickly for 94L over the next 12-24 hours, assuming the disturbance near the SE coast stops outflowing straight into 94L

[GCANE]

Solid west winds on ASCAT and IR Satellites

[GCANE]

Atmosphere destabilizing in the area.
CAPE up to 3500.

[GCANE]

High rain-rate tower firing off 28.9N 69.2W

[BensonTCwatcher]

Definitely watching this disturbance and low level vort. for organization. The upstream environment is low shear, warm SSTs and the ridge established, with no dry air. A home grown TS would be a concern . Still removing tree debris etc. in Wilmington. The ridge looks like it would kick this even more SW in 2 days. Models don't have this as strong, but not relaying on them with weak mess 2 days from shore. Not a lot of time but enough for a some level of strengthening.