WPAC: INVEST 96W

[cycloneye]

96W INVEST 200908 0000 17.0N 166.0E WPAC 15 1008

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.0N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DISORGANIZED
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY (072224Z ASCAT-B AND 072109Z
ASCAT-A) DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 5-10KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-25KT) NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Well yeah model support is nothing, amazing just as when the shear over the Philippines up to the dateline is favorable to TCs, no any TC formation shown by the models.

[1900hurricane]

Upped to Medium. Basically no guidance support, but JTWC is wondering if the small circulation isn't being resolved well at the moment.

ABPW10 PGTW 082000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/082000Z-090600ZSEP2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 166.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 162.3E, APPROXIMATELY
968 NM EAST OF TINIAN, CNMI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081803Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL WEAK
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 080959Z ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION
DOMINATED BY 5-10KT WINDS WITH SOME 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE TUTT WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS SMALL AND
MAY NOT BE RESOLVED AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED TS 11W (HAISHEN) FROM BULLETIN
AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 162.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY
962 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 090457Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED
LLC. A 082228Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS A CONFUSED, WEAK WIND FIELD
DOMINATED BY 5-10KT WINDS WITH SOME 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT WITH NO INDICATION OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 96W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING 96W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[euro6208]

Invest 96W
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 09, 2020:

Location: 17.0°N 160.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W ) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1N 162.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.