ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:51 pm

95L.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.25W

95L INVEST 200911 0000 10.7N 20.0W ATL 20 NA

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was for this tropical wave.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121302
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:02 pm

This was a record for Talking Tropics forum but here we are. Now let's see how many pages this thread and the models thread will have.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:03 pm

It took 708 posts and 35 pages before this became an invest. Odds are this is going to crush that easily.

Now that this is designated, that means HWRF runs will be coming soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby edu2703 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:04 pm

Last edited by edu2703 on Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:This was a record for Talking Tropics forum but here we are. Now let's see how many pages this thread and the models thread will have.


Interesting, I always use ACTIVE TOPICS and never go into individual forums. It's like a one place stop and shop 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:09 pm

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952020 09/11/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 54 57 62 68 73 77 80 83 84
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 54 57 62 68 73 77 80 83 84
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 30 34 39 43 47 51 56 61 66 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:10 pm

aspen wrote:It took 708 posts and 35 pages before this became an invest. Odds are this is going to crush that easily.

Now that this is designated, that means HWRF runs will be coming soon.


Yep! Can’t wait for those runs!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:28 pm

95L INVEST 200911 0000 10.7N 20.0W ATL 20 NA

Hmmm...

This is the exact location we’re the Euro gets going.
Last edited by SFLcane on Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:28 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:44 pm

New Levi video. Bottom-line is that there is a lot of uncertainty. Heading west toward the Caribbean or a turn north in the Central Atlantic both possible.

https://youtu.be/YX6__guxcg0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:46 pm

Well there you go.

enjoy ;P

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:48 pm

gatorcane wrote:New Levi video. Bottom-line is that there is a lot of uncertainty. Heading west toward the Caribbean or a turn north in the Central Atlantic both possible.

https://youtu.be/YX6__guxcg0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:50 pm

gatorcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:New Levi video. Bottom-line is that there is a lot of uncertainty. Heading west toward the Caribbean or a turn north in the Central Atlantic both possible.

https://youtu.be/YX6__guxcg0


What gave it away ? :p
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Well there you go.

enjoy ;P

https://i.ibb.co/DVH5Tc5/asc-b-20200910-22-36-flag.png


Yep elongated as expected.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:New Levi video. Bottom-line is that there is a lot of uncertainty. Heading west toward the Caribbean or a turn north in the Central Atlantic both possible.

https://youtu.be/YX6__guxcg0


What gave it away ? :p


:P :uarrow:

My thinking is that it ends up heading toward the Caribbean. Could be a big problem for the islands. Plenty of the GFS ensembles showing this and the sharp turn north by the Euro looks a bit suspect. Might be too slow on the west movement initially.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby TimSmith » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:New Levi video. Bottom-line is that there is a lot of uncertainty. Heading west toward the Caribbean or a turn north in the Central Atlantic both possible.

https://youtu.be/YX6__guxcg0


Ohhhh, I was expecting to know exactly where landfall is planned for dunno what 10 days in future LOL

But on a serious note looks like a southern track = keep very close eye on it. A lot more will be revealed after this weekend but good time for coastal residents to do their usual season prep if haven't already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:New Levi video. Bottom-line is that there is a lot of uncertainty. Heading west toward the Caribbean or a turn north in the Central Atlantic both possible.

https://youtu.be/YX6__guxcg0


I'm learning so much from Levi. His articulation skills and tropical knowledge is amazing!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby MarioProtVI » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:19 pm

According to Levi it will go further west if the western lobe detaches or separates quicker (which it already seems to be doing), which would get it west enough to get caught under a ridge and shove it towards the Caribbean. If for some reason it gets tangled up and remains near the other lobe it will be far enough east to be pulled north by a weakness in the ridge by an ULL and Rene that is going to be entangled with it. So far, the GFS seems to be correct. I suppose USTropics could describe it better then I can if he wants :lol:

All in all it reminds me of Isaac from 2018 which had a similar setup (ridge NW of it + Florence being north of it and if it was going to move fast enough to get caught under which it did which models also disagreed on).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:19 pm

For those who watched Levi's video, the two biggest takeaways I saw was:

1. The potential for Rene to bounce around up and down between ridges in the open Atlantic and mess with a slower more consolidated 95L and draw it N. (12z Euro)
2. The western lobe of 95L fast tracking to the W away from the E lobe and getting underneath a building ridge that would send it towards the Caribbean regardless of Rene's antics. 12z GFS

That's what to watch for first.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:21 pm

With the circulation already closed, I'd have higher probs - like 90/90. It seems inevitable this will become a TC and it only really needs more convection and a bit of work on the west side.
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