ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

HWRF has been spawning unusually large eyes out of Teddy in recent runs which I'm not sure if they will pan out...

[aspen]

HWRF has been spawning unusually large eyes out of Teddy in recent runs which I'm not sure if they will pan out...

https://i.imgur.com/W2aphVJ.png

The HWRF has done a good job with plenty of systems this year, but these very tame runs for Teddy just seem off. I think it’s overestimating the potential for dry air intrusions and core disruptions that lead to the formation of a larger eye.

[CrazyC83]

15/2330 UTC 14.6N 47.8W T4.0/4.0 TEDDY -- Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

HWRF has been spawning unusually large eyes out of Teddy in recent runs which I'm not sure if they will pan out...

https://i.imgur.com/W2aphVJ.png

The HWRF has done a good job with plenty of systems this year, but these very tame runs for Teddy just seem off. I think it’s overestimating the potential for dry air intrusions and core disruptions that lead to the formation of a larger eye.

Almost reminiscent of Isabel if that happened.

[MJGarrison]

From the 5PM Disco: “The model spread is still much lower than normal, and
confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.”

That’s not something we’ve seen this season too often.


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[tiger_deF]

From the 5PM Disco: “The model spread is still much lower than normal, and
confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.”

That’s not something we’ve seen this season too often.


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That almost makes me more concerned haha

[us89]

NHC is clearly having some fun with this one

...TEDDY BEARS WATCHING...

[aspen]

The NHC bumped down the forecast peak again, now it’s “only” 100 kt because the models have been much less aggressive with Teddy recently. Apparently there’ll be drier air and shear by the end of the week, but that doesn’t mean Teddy can’t bomb out before then.

[ClarCari]

His chances of becoming a major are weakening unless he’s able to go through an RI phase, which is still possible. I think he needs to cut through that dry air first.

[aspen]

An eye looks to be forming on IR imagery. Teddy is probably already a hurricane.

[tiger_deF]

Teddy is definitely moving on a WNW heading at least, but I still don't understand why all the models are so quick to shoot it off to the NW. For days they've been slightly overestimating his northerly component, and according to the models Teddy should have been on a more poleward heading hours ago

[FireRat]

Looks like Teddy's long awaited NW turn has commenced, per the NHC he is now headed at 315 degrees NW. I think those of you in the Lesser Antilles and PR can rest a little easier now. You guys were never in the cone, but Teddy's consistent west trend was getting a little unnerving lately. As usual, the NHC is doing a good job.

[PavelGaborik10]

His chances of becoming a major are weakening unless he’s able to go through an RI phase, which is still possible. I think he needs to cut through that dry air first.

His chances are fine. If he manages to sneak under the high he has an opportunity to re-intensify down the line.

He looks great right now, huge system.

[ClarCari]

His chances of becoming a major are weakening unless he’s able to go through an RI phase, which is still possible. I think he needs to cut through that dry air first.

His chances are fine. If he manages to sneak under the high he has an opportunity to re-intensify down the line.

He looks great right now, huge system.

I think they’re fine too. Didn’t mean he had bad chances, it’s a big slot of dry air but I think he can cut it in half.

I agree about his size and that’s the biggest thing Teddy has going for him and his structure. A well defined structure is far more resistant to shear and dry air even at weaker intensity.
You can see that with Sally now that she last second has a more solid eye her intensity is starting to go off some.

[EquusStorm]

Special statement - bumped to 85mph hurricane.

[ElectricStorm]

Meanwhile, Teddy has been upgraded to a hurricane. 85mph, 984mb

[ClarCari]

NO ONE CARES TEDDY LEAVE US ALONE

jk lol just the situation with Sally is serious I don’t think alot of people are gonna notice right now

Edit: OMG straight up to 85MPH!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

...TEDDY BECOMES A HURRICANE...
2:10 AM AST Wed Sep 16
Location: 15.4°N 48.5°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph


Three active hurricanes at once in the Atlantic basin.

[Hammy]

Meanwhile, Teddy has been upgraded to a hurricane. 85mph, 984mb

Can't say that was expected, at least not before I checked the satellite. Giving a giant middle finger to the otherwise unfavorable MDR conditions up to this point.

[StPeteMike]

Not surprised, it’s looking really well on satellite. Also started that NW I see!