ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Whoa Teddy took that downgrade last night to cat 1 personally and he wants revenge But dang this is going to be one heck of a storm

[Dean4Storms]

Impressive this morning and think like most of the rest that Recon finds a beast when they get there.

[jaxfladude]

OTS or possible impacts to some place(s) in the Atlantic Basin by Teddy and how bad might it be, or still too soon? 2020 is 2020ing...

[supercane4867]

Current intensity appears to be 105kts. ADT raw# up to 6.4 now.

[cycloneye]

We are going to see how strong Teddy is this afternoon when AF plane will go. It will be a facinating mission to say the least.

This is the most excited I’ve been for a recon mission since Laura. Is it leaving at 14z or 18z?

14:30z

A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0120A TEDDY
C. 17/1430Z
D. 19.7N 53.0W
E. 17/1730Z TO 17/2000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[ElectricStorm]

Raw Ts already up to 6.4. once that eye fully clears out they will skyrocket. Can't wait for recon

[tiger_deF]

If people are this bearish in a hyperactice season, imagine the season cancel circlejerk when we actually have a down year

[cycloneye]

Up to 95 kts.

20L TEDDY 200917 1200 18.9N 52.7W ATL 95 965

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this Recon mission this afternoon into Teddy is really going to be great stuff!!

[NotoSans]

95kt is likely too low. This is certainly near or above T5.5.

[cycloneye]

Apart from the AF plane, Gonzo will also fly to see how is the upper atmosphere around Teddy. It leaves at 12:00 Noon EDT.

NOAA WILL FLY A 7-HOUR G-IV RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
HURRICANE TEDDY, DEPARTING TISX AT 17/1600Z.

[aspen]

Recon could find a 110-115 kt Cat 3/4 at this rate. 95 kt is probably a tad too low right now.

[aspen]

[us89]

That eye is tiny. With convection like it has now, no way this isn't a major...and a strong one at that. If this does wind up making cat 5 I'm hoping recon is there to see it.

[RL3AO]

ADT estimates a 27 mb pressure fall in six hours.

[aspen]

Dvorak estimates just shot up to T#6.2/120 kt now that positive eye temps are present.

[RL3AO]

Dvorak estimates just shot up to T#6.2/120 kt now that positive eye temps are present.

The raw is still a little higher. It still is getting kept down by intensification limits.

[ThetaE]

Tropical Tidbits is lagging on GOES imagery, so I didn't realize how much Teddy's actually improved over the past hour: big difference! Like aspen noted, ADT is now at 6.2 (6.5 raw T#). New burst of convection on north side may obscure the eye for a little bit, but this is definitely on its way to if not at cat 4 intensity.

[RL3AO]

Tropical Tidbits is lagging on GOES imagery, so I didn't realize how much Teddy's actually improved over the past hour:

ADT has the pressure falling 14 mb in the past hour. I'm surprised there isn't a constraint on that.

[storminabox]

Only a cat 2 now according to NHC, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's already a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 if they would sample it now. When is recon supposed to be there?

The NHC has been consistently undervaluing this system. It's probably been a major for most of the night. I'm glad recon is going in there soon.