ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

This Teddy bear is growing up to be a Grizzly right before our eyes

[BYG Jacob]

Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4

[BYG Jacob]

Eye clearing out on IR

[kevin]

Only a cat 2 now according to NHC, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's already a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 if they would sample it now. When is recon supposed to be there?

[cycloneye]

Only a cat 2 now according to NHC, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's already a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 if they would sample it now. When is recon supposed to be there?

This afternoon.

[Do_For_Love]

NHC seems pretty set on the recurve scenario, showing it losing longitude at the 120HR point as it nears 40N. Are they discounting the model solutions that show it getting captured and yanked west in a case of "I don't even wanna go there"?

It seems like a fairly low probability outcome and it's a week + away, so maybe they wanna see more evidence/consistency in that possibility before they start generating concern.

Teddy is looking back at you with his pinhole eye on the IR now lol. He looks a little stronger to me than Sally did at landfall, so maybe he is a major now.

[Kazmit]

Wow, this thread went from "it probably won't even be a major" to "it's gonna be a C4-C5" real quick.

[NotoSans]

Personal Dvorak analysis is T6.0/6.0 (corresponding to 115kt), but convection is a bit asymmetric (probably due to slight VWS) and latest microwave shows eyewall is still slightly open to the southwest.

[supercane4867]

Eye is clearing out both on IR and visible

[Kazmit]

A beast.

[RL3AO]

I'd love to know how quickly the pressure is dropping during the last few hours. That looks like a soon-to-be 130 knot hurricane to me.

[plasticup]

Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4

I mean, it's definitely not.

[BYG Jacob]

Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4

I mean, it's definitely not.

What kind of hurricane has deep convection like that wrapping around that isn't a category 4?

[RL3AO]

Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4

I mean, it's definitely not.

What kind of hurricane has deep convection like that wrapping around that isn't a category 4?

It probably will be this afternoon. A signature of cat four and especially high end cat 4 is that they have a perfectly spherical eye. Teddy looks a lot more like a high-end 2 or low-end 3 right now based on the eye.

[cycloneye]

We are going to see how strong Teddy is this afternoon when AF plane will go. It will be a facinating mission to say the least.

[BYG Jacob]

I mean, it's definitely not.

What kind of hurricane has deep convection like that wrapping around that isn't a category 4?

It probably will be this afternoon. A signature of cat four and especially high end cat 4 is that they have a perfectly spherical eye. Teddy looks a lot more like a high-end 2 or low-end 3 right now based on the eye.

Looks like a category 4 clearing out its eye to me.

[northjaxpro]

Big, bad Teddy imo is definitely a major now and should be Cat 4 when Recon reports this afternoon.


A very impressive tropical cyclone, and imo, has a chance to rival Lorenzo if he keeps organizng in this manner.

[plasticup]

Y'all acting like he already isn't a high end category 4

I mean, it's definitely not.

What kind of hurricane has deep convection like that wrapping around that isn't a category 4?

Professional Dvorak estimate is 5.5 which corresponds to a category 3. High end cat 4 would be Dvorak 6.5 which requires a clear eye for starters. Beven made this great guide

[aspen]

We are going to see how strong Teddy is this afternoon when AF plane will go. It will be a facinating mission to say the least.

This is the most excited I’ve been for a recon mission since Laura. Is it leaving at 14z or 18z?

[supercane4867]

TXNT21 KNES 171200
TCSNTL

A. 20L (TEDDY)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 19.0N

D. 52.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN DG MAKES
THE DT EQUAL TO 5.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0 TO THE DT. THE MET
AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI