ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

It looks like an eye might be forming.

[CrazyC83]

Someone is jealous! Surprised they aren't issuing a Special Advisory on Teddy, but they must be overworked and this is no threat to land.

[ClarCari]

Hehe anyone notice now up to 90mph!

[ElectricStorm]

Hehe anyone notice now up to 90mph!

Yep. Forecasting a 120 mph peak. Could get much stronger though

[CrazyC83]

16/0530 UTC 15.3N 48.4W T5.0/5.0 TEDDY -- Atlantic

Supports 90 kt. Teddy is RI'ing this morning.

[CrazyC83]

Hehe anyone notice now up to 90mph!

Yep. Forecasting a 120 mph peak. Could get much stronger though

I'm thinking Teddy reaches cat 4 by this evening at this rate. The Raw T# is 6.3.

Obviously someone is jealous that Sally stole the spotlight!

[ElectricStorm]

Hehe anyone notice now up to 90mph!

Yep. Forecasting a 120 mph peak. Could get much stronger though

I'm thinking Teddy reaches cat 4 by this evening at this rate. The Raw T# is 6.3.

Obviously someone is jealous that Sally stole the spotlight!

This has potential to be the strongest storm of the year unless an October Caribbean monster steals the show

[CrazyC83]

Yep. Forecasting a 120 mph peak. Could get much stronger though

I'm thinking Teddy reaches cat 4 by this evening at this rate. The Raw T# is 6.3.

Obviously someone is jealous that Sally stole the spotlight!

This has potential to be the strongest storm of the year unless an October Caribbean monster steals the show

With no Recon, they'll go cat 3 with T5.5 on Dvorak and cat 4 with consensus T6.0.

[ClarCari]

Category 2!!
Whewww he’s BOMBING overnight.

[bob rulz]

70 to 100mph in one standard advisory. Structure and satellite presentation is as classic as it gets. Teddy is going to be a beast.

[SconnieCane]

70 to 100mph in one standard advisory. Structure and satellite presentation is as classic as it gets. Teddy is going to be a beast.

Yeah, I go to bed with Teddy a tropical storm; get up, go to work, have a little time to catch up on the Sally thread, glance at the map on the top of S2K and realized Teddy is also a Cat. 2!!

[Ryxn]

Now we have 3 simultaneous Category 2+ hurricanes spinning in the Atlantic. Rare feat.

#2020ing

[abajan]

Does anyone have a link to the definition of explosive intensification? I know rapid intensification is defined as an increase of at least 35 mph in a 24 hour period. But Teddy has already intensified by 30 mph in just the last 6 hours. Surely, that's explosive intensification!

[Hammy]

Does anyone have a link to the definition of explosive intensification? I know rapid intensification is defined as an increase of at least 35 mph in a 24 hour period. But Teddy has already intensified by 30 mph in just the last 6 hours. Surely, that's explosive intensification!

A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=explosive%20deepening

Best I could find. Couldn't find any specified wind criteria.

Pretty sure Teddy should qualify either way, given it would be a Cat 4 by evening at this rate.

[Hurricane Mike]

New England should keep a eye on Teddy.

[storm4u]

New England should keep a eye on Teddy.

Watching up here for sure.


Dry weather is on tap this weekend, but there is more uncertainty early next week. The GFS/GGEM keep us dry, but the upper level pattern on the ECMWF becomes amplified enough to pull some of the rain and wind from Hurricane Teddy into southern New England. We will keep that at a low probability at this point, but something will need to watch.

[tolakram]

[abajan]

Does anyone have a link to the definition of explosive intensification? I know rapid intensification is defined as an increase of at least 35 mph in a 24 hour period. But Teddy has already intensified by 30 mph in just the last 6 hours. Surely, that's explosive intensification!

A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=explosive%20deepening

Best I could find. Couldn't find any specified wind criteria.

Pretty sure Teddy should qualify either way, given it would be a Cat 4 by evening at this rate.

Teddy's pressure dropped 12 mb from the 11 PM advisory to the 5 AM one. So yes, based on the pressure alone, it indeed qualifies. Thanks for the info.

[Do_For_Love]

Explosive intensification huh? Wow. Teddy looks like a freakin beast already. I'd imagine it's gonna have incredible satellite presentation by this afternoon. RIP to the "low ACE 2020" talk.

...you guys really think theres a chance this could hit NE?

[tiger_deF]

Explosive intensification huh? Wow. Teddy looks like a freakin beast already. I'd imagine it's gonna have incredible satellite presentation by this afternoon. RIP to the "low ACE 2020" talk.

...you guys really think theres a chance this could hit NE?

The setup is there for it to possibly happen, but everything would have to go right (or wrong in this case), maybe 5% or less chance